I've changed my IN prediction (Details inside)

[Colobo]

Last week (Thursday), I predicted Hillary would beat Obama in IN by a 8 pt-margin (54% to 46%). I consider things have changed a bit over there, and also in NC. So, here are my new, last minute predictions:

Indiana: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
NC: Obama 57%, Hillary 43%

[saltpoint]

1. I sure like your new prediction better.

Hi, Katzenkavalier. What were the components that made you update the call?

[Colobo]

4. Look, Obama has rebounded nicely from the Rev. Wright situation

and I think the "gas tax" issue has had an impact on voters, with Obama having the upper hand on the issue. Hillary has not looked good defending the "gas tax holiday".

I expect this to have an impact on undecideds in Indiana. I'll also say that in NC, Hillary has worked hard enough to cut Obama's lead a bit.

[saltpoint]

5. Very nteresting analysis. I'll jump on that train any day.

:thumbsup: :hi: :dem:

[casus belli]

13. The problem is, when her ideas stink, she defends them more fiercely.

Wer already have a president who can't be told anything and refuses to believe he could be wrong even when faced with overwhelming objection by subject matter experts. We don't need another one.

[lyonn]

14. Sometimes facts don't seem to bother her.

She has a race to win.

[casus belli]

15. When the facts don't fit...

make up your own facts. True sign of a career politican.

[ericgtr]

2. I'll take that prediction with a grain of hope!

:D

[datopbanana]

3. lol

I see BO +12 NC
HRC +8 IN


It won't make her quit but it doesn't change the fact she still doesn't have a shot.

[MadBadger]

6. Its been awhile since a real good win for Obama, over two months

So I'm a little pessimistic about Indiana still, no matter what I see. I'm sticking with 53.5-46.5. Obama will still win NC 56-44.

[cboy4]

7. I think this primary is so interesting. I love following it.

And it's so neat that these "late states" get to participate.

Democracy at its finest, IMO.

[Colobo]

9. Historic indeed.

[Tatiana]

8. IN: Obama 50.5%, Clinton 49.5%

IF Obama wins big in Indianapolis & metro area, while holding on to NW Indiana and Bloomington area.

Ft. Wayne could go either way.

Southern Indiana is a lost cause.

[JanusAscending]

10. That sounds GREAT to me!

but, have you read, and taken into the account that something "fishy" is going on in Indiana Obama strongholds? Over a million Dem. voters have been dropped from the rolls for tomorrows Primary!! I'm hoping his attorneys are up to speed, and investigating!! Here's to Obama:toast: and to our hopes for tomorrow!!

[Colobo]

11. Gobama!

[AtomicKitten]

12. I'll take it.

:D

[Zachstar]

16. I hope you are right!

The gas tax issue has REALLY hurt the Clinton Campaign at the last few days. And while it is likely that she will walk away with a small win. I think it will keep from her walking away with a 5 or 10 point lead.

And I think that is all that is needed for 10-20 supers to move which would likely put Obama in the lead with superdelegates which will aid him as he eats into Clintons lead in West Virginia.

Tho let us hope for Obama victory!

[grantcart]

17. similar but I have IN 50/50 like Guam 7 votes

[Jensen]

18. From your fingers to God's ears!