New New National Polls

[Nicholas_J]

IBD/TIPP: Kerry 42, Bush 40, Nader 4

Marist: Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 2

Rasmussen: 7/21: Bush 47, Kerry 46

STATE POLLS:

AZ: Kerry 42, Bush 41

MN: Kerry 45, Bush 44, Nader 2

MA: Kerry 59, Bush 30

NY: Kerry 51, Bush 29

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Kerry now aheah in Arizona

[Worst Username Ever]

1. Those are closer than I would like to see n/t

[lancdem]

2. The Rasmussen poll is of likely voters and hardly changes

As for the other national polls, keep in mind that Bush's share of the vote is what really matters because the undecideds will swing overwhelmingly to Kerry. For Bush-Cheney to be under 45 percent is bad. And they've been stuck there for awhile.

There's also another poll, from Pew, that has Kerry-Edwards leading 46-44, with Nader at 3 percent. Again, Bush gets less than 45 percentAnd Bush's approval rating is 46 percent. He's not winning with that, trust me.

The state polls are looking good for Kery right now, too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. STOP THE INSANITY....

Rassmussen is a joke.... I could conduct a better poll from my living room.... He had Chimpy beating Gore by 9% on Election Day 00.......

[Nicholas_J]

4. I dont know about that

Rasmussen polls for the most part have been showing Kerry ahead, and their analysis of the electoral votes have been showing Kerry with a lead over Bush:

Electoral College Projections
Based Upon Most Recent Rasmussen Reports Survey Data and Election 2000 Results

Election 2004

Electoral College

Bush 197
Kerry 254
Toss-Up 87
RasmussenReports.com



July 12, 2004--If the Presidential Election were held today, Senator John Kerry would win 254 Electoral Votes, President George W. Bush would win 197 Electoral Votes. 87 Electoral Votes would be in the toss-up category.

These latest results reflect the shift of Oregon from "Toss-Up" status to Kerry's column and Arkansas from Bush's column to "Toss-Up" status.

All polling data to be released this week is based upon survey data collected prior to the selection of John Edwards as John Kerry's running mate.

Supplemental data is available for

While many people resist this conclusion, the best way to project the Electoral College vote totals is to follow the national popular vote polls. As long as they remain close, the Electoral College will come down to a handful of key states. Rasmussen Reports is an independent public opinion polling firm. We track the Presidential race and the nation's economic confidence on a daily basis.



Electoral College 2004

Date Bush Kerry
July 12 197 254
July 9 203 247
July 8 203 226
July 7 203 237
June 21 203 210
June 17 188 227

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Rasmussens electoral counts and projections are very much in line with everyone else doing these projections.

And they have Kerry doing rather well in most of the state polls that they are tracking.

They also have Kerry with one of the largest leads in FLorida out of most polls.

Florida: Kerry 48% Bush 43%

State data from National Survey of 15,000 Likely Voters

June 1-30, 2004

Florida 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 43%
Kerry 48%
Other 5%
Not Sure 4%
RasmussenReports.com


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
July 7, 2004--Florida, the decisive state in Election 2000 and a toss-up for most of Election 2004 is now leaning towards Senator John Kerry.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Florida survey finds Senator John F. Kerry with 48% of the vote to President George W. Bush's 43%. A month ago, the candidates were tied in Florida with both Bush and Kerry attracting 46% of the vote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida%20July%207.htm

And Rasmussen was uncannily accurate in its polling during the primaries, calling the beginning of Edwards decline in a number of states days before anyone else did. Again they were very accurate when they predicted that Edwards had reached his peak in a number of states where he was starting to catch up to Kerry. So Rasmussens is not doing all that poorly thins time around.

Almost every pollster is aiming to become the Zogby of 2004, so they are being very, very careful in checking the results of their polls, and in monitoring those making the contact calls to get the data.

[Gloria]

5. It's too early to be using "likely voters" according to the pollsters I

saw a while back discussing the subject. Gallup will still use them simply because they started that way ....way back when.

But, in the fall, all the polls switch over to likely voters, because by then, this sampling begins to mean something...........

[LuLu550]

6. New Mexico is swinging toward Kerry

my brother lives there and said the general sentiment is going toward Kerry and away from Bush in a big hurry.

[LizW]

7. Arizona?!

That's good, isn't it? Seems like Bush* was ahead in AZ last time I saw numbers.

I try not to watch the polls, because I'm fairly sure they are manipulated, but I just can't help it! :)