Are Missouri Democrats going to repudiate the sitting governor?

[WI_DEM]

There is a Democratic primary for Governor between Governor Bob Holden and Claire McCaskill, the state auditor. A new poll out gives McCaskill a 47-43 percent lead among likely voters in the democratic primary. McCaskill leads by 25 points in central Missouri while Holden leads by 8 in Urban Missouri. Holden trails by 15 in rural areas.

McCaskill leads among moderates and conservative dems while Holden leads among liberals. Holden also has a lead of 25 points with African Americans but whites favor McCaskill by 12.

Among those who watched a recent debate they though McCaskill beat Holden by a whopping 53-28 percent.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Would McCaskill be a more formidable general election candidate? Why is Holden having so many difficulties?

[nickinSTL]

1. Holden v. McCaskill

Holden's taken a beating due to the terrible Missouri economy, and the ineffectiveness in pushing his agenda.

Holden's suffered in large part due to the Repub legislature, who've been pushing a right-wing agenda, sometimes overriding Holden's vetos.

The fact is, that Holden is seen as weak, and McCaskill is seen as having a better chance against Blunt, the likely Repub nominee.

[WI_DEM]

2. given the poor economy in Missouri

hopefully that will hurt Bush too.

[Zynx]

5. It should.

[Joe Fields]

3. I live in Missouri, and I can tell you the big reason why

Holden is having such difficulty in the rural areas was his hardline stance against the Conceal and Carry bill. Rural Missourians are gun crazy and worked hard to try and get the gun proposition passed. They don't forget and they don't forgive.

[nickinSTL]

4. uh

the voters of MO REJECTED conceal carry. Then the Repub legislature decided that the voters must have made a mistake, or that now, after 9/11, they'd have voted differently.

I wouldn't. I voted against it before, and I would again, if they'd given me the chance. They didn't.

[Zynx]

6. What was the vote on concealed carry?

If it was supported in the rural areas, then that would explain it.

[nickinSTL]

8. vote

I don't recall the exact vote.

I expect that the cities voted against, the rural areas voted against.

In the end, the vote was very close, and most of the last votes reported were from St. Louis County. And against expectations, St. Louis County went against strongly enough to turn the vote to No.

[Joe Fields]

7. I know what the vote was. I was there.

I was only saying that Holden has lost the rural vote because of conceal/carry. His support in the cities is much better, but may not be enough to offset the rural vote.