Bush, Kerry Neck and Neck in Survey - Democrat's lead is minor

[papau]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll23jul23.story

Bush, Kerry Neck and Neck in Survey
The Democrat's lead is minor despite majority's unhappiness with the country's direction.
By Ronald Brownstein
Times Staff Writer

July 23, 2004

WASHINGTON — Despite dissatisfaction with the country's direction and the administration's principal policies, the presidential race remains a virtual dead heat as the Democratic convention approaches, a Times poll has found.

Sen. John F. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, leads President Bush by 2 percentage points among registered voters nationwide, with or without liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader included in the matchup. That's an advantage within the poll's margin of error, and a smaller lead than Kerry enjoyed in a Times survey last month.

The survey also asked questions measuring interest in the race, to assess which voters were most likely to turn out this fall. Among the likely voters, Bush and Kerry are tied, with or without Nader in the equation.

But other poll findings show narrow — and in some instances broad — majorities unhappy with Bush's direction, a threatening trend for an incumbent.

Fully 54% say the nation is moving in the wrong direction. Nearly half say Bush's economic policies have made the country worse off — almost twice as many as say his agenda has improved conditions.

A slim majority says the war in Iraq was not justified. Perhaps most ominously for Bush, nearly three-fifths say the country should not "continue in the direction he set out," and "needs to move in a new direction." <snip>

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. How is it still tied?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. If you Average All The Recent Polls Kerry Has A Slight Lead

a point or two..... I hope we get a decent convention bounce....


For current polls....


www.pollingreport.com

[Tweed]

4. I would say most Americans have not really seen Kerry yet.

They have seen news bites, but they haven't seen speeches I would bet. The Presidential election is news, but we are still three months away from Nov. 2nd. Someone could make a very educated vote if they do some good research in the last two weeks coming up to the election.

Once Kerry is given prime time coverage for the convention, prime time debate coverage and increasing amount of news coverage as we get closer to the election, the people who are unhappy with Bush will get to know Kerry and move over to him. Kerry has not done anything to get the people who are unsure about Bush over to his side. He doesn't need to just yet. Many on the DU have talked about how we don't want Kerry to get a big lead and be the candidate to beat and then have Bush begin to chip away at the lead and the media can say "Bush is back!". I agree and also think that it is not necesarry to have a huge lead three months from voting time.

[spooky3]

6. I think you're right. There is also the hard core 30% Bush that won't chg

[Zynx]

5. Kerry's still not that well known.

Reagan had the same problem even though in 1980 Carter was about as popular as herpes.

[goclark]

3. That is a BIG Lie

There is no way on earth that Kerry is not way ahead.

IMO the Rethugs have infiltrated the polls the way that they stole the election. Something is way fishy.

It is fishy to me that the polls quickly changed with Bush doing better after nothing really changed. Bush was still giving the same boring speeches,making dumb mistakes.

Kerry and Edwards are the dream ticket and getting no negatives that I can see.

Is it the tired ADS that Bush is running?
Is it the darling twins that have joined him on the campaign?
Is it Cheney and wife Lynn that are making the difference?
The tortures?
Why and how did the nation go back to sleep? Not possible IMO.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. Kerry is in the lead OR they are neck and neck

it can't be both. Ron Brownstein is a liar.

[fujiyama]

8. A lead is a lead

I'd rather be ahead, even if it's by a little bit, than be behind.

Bush's numbers for an incumbent suck donkey balls.

Kerry's got a small lead nationally and a small lead in the electoral college as well. Bush is weak in states he absolutely must win like MO, OH, AZ, FL and will be forced to spend money in these places (if not having done so already). His numbers are especially poor in states Gore won last time (his chances of carrying PA for example are falling even after he's visited the places an insane number of times).

I'm not going to call this election over because the RW has tricks up their sleeves (Oct surprises, etc)...and there's a margin of fraud factor as well but Kerry's chances of winning in November are pretty good (more than 50/50)...

[TruthIsAll]

11. Kerry's chances of winning are 98% if the election were held today.

See my post.

He gets an average of 331 Electoral votes based on 1000 simulated runs. This is based on latest state polls and assumes he gets 70% of the "other" (undecided/Nader) vote.

If he gets 60% of the "other" votes, his win probability is 91%.

[amandabeech]

9. That 60% of the voters who think that we need a new direction

really is a nasty number for Bush. It indicates that there are many voters who might be willing to give Kerry a real look. If Kerry can convince some of them that he has a real plan different from Bush, then bye-bye BFEE.

Many of them may just need a little reassurance, like my uncle. I told him that Kerry would be a little more like Clinton, but without the Monica problem. He seemed to like that idea and chewed on it for awhile.

I think that he's one more voter for Kerry in Michigan.

[Pepperbelly]

10. Brownstein knows better than this. "Hey, Rube," he sez ...

smarmy as all get out.

It is past conventional wisdom, Ron. The American public have decided to fire Georgie and they are checking out Senator Kerry. After this week, they'll say, "George, you're fired! Get out and don't take the silver!"

What tale will you try to peddle then, Brownstein?