Is anyone else worried about Florida?

[jmparks02]

I am scared to death of Florida in this election. Everything that I see points toward the state being in Kerry's favor, but I still think that Brother Bush is going to pull some sort of rabbit out of his hat.

He did it in 2000, and we have known since then that this state has pretty much been a deadlock. Is he doing to try and do it again?

[Catfight]

1. No worry, Jeb will hand it to his brother again. "You can write it down!"

[Frodo]

2. Yes.

And for much more traditional reasons. Florida is still slightly Republican leaning and a couple of the current local issues don't lean our way.

I think Mason Dixon just realeased their latest poll of Florida's likely voters and (even after the bounce for picking Edwards) Bush is up by two. Mason Dixon is by far the most reliable national state-level polling firm (particularly in the South). There may be a Florida firm with a better track record, but I'm not aware of it.

The LATimes poll (which probably leans a tad toward Kerry) also shows a negligible lead for Bush (1 point).

So yes, there's still plenty of race left to go and polls this far out are STILL close to worthless... but FL and PA are the two states I'm watching the closest.

[democraticinsurgent]

3. you bet

Jeb is doing everything he can do to make it difficult for Kerry. Did you catch the latest thing, where ex-felons now have to go to government offices to re-register instead of just filling out a form?

[RummyTheDummy]

4. Kerry will carry FL by 5-7 points

My reasoning is....

1-A lot of pissed off dems in florida who didn't vote the last time around but will this time b/c of the 2000 theft.

2-Bush's unbelieavable gift to Kerry-Edwards when he came up with the ridiculous visitation policy for Cuban Amercicans. Now they can visit their families in Cuba only once every three years as opposed to once a year. Am I alone in thinking this has pissed off a lot of normally Repuke leaning Cubans?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. If Kerry Is Carrying FL By 5-7% He's Carrying The Rest Of The Country By

At Least 8% to 12%...


Florida is a legitimate pick em....

[wish_I_could_vote]

5. I am, and I am not

Logic tells me that few who voted for Gore will switch to Bush. On the other hand, I do believe some Bush voters will not vote for him a second time. Add that to the number of people who did not get to vote in 2000, who hopefully will this time, and I feel fairly confident about Florida.

When the polls look bad ( even thought I tend to think the polls are full of crap most times ) I remind myself that this election can be won without Florida.

[freetobegay]

6. We didn't expect in in 2000

2004 is a different story.

[TexasSissy]

7. Yes. I'm sure they have Plan A and Plan B. I just hope we have one, too.

But when you have the governor and Sec. of State and the S.Ct. in your hip pocket, the state's pretty much yours.

Absentee votes from Israel? There was a problem with those in 2000. They vote primarily Democratic. I anticipate another problem with those this year. As well as with military absentee votes, where a number of the military are probably going to vote Democratic.

Of course, the solution would be for the Democrats to show up in enough numbers so that the win is clear and decisive (for the Democrats). If the Florida Dems don't show up to vote, well, then they have no right to complain if Bush wins.

[tom_paine]

8. The State has been Diebolded. I am afraid the "election" is over.

Does this mean Floridians should GIVE UP? HELL NO! It means you should REDOUBLE your efforts to provide a theft-proof margin of victory!

But the truth is, I have as much faith in a Diebolded State as I had in the 1978 Ukrainian Ballot returns.

But everyone should KEEP WORKING HARD, in case I am wrong or in case a theft-proof margin of victory is possible...

[Nicholas_J]

9. Nope, and I live here.

And I live in the county that part of Corinne Browns district is in.

Kerry has some of the best legal people in the the State of Florida and the U.S. and in fact the World watching what will be going ojn in Florida. THe last time, no one was expeting anything and reacted after the fact. This time nothing will be left to chance. Right no broyther Jeb is being forced by the Florida ourts to assist ex-felon to get their voting rights back and to fast track it and to make sure that no one gets turned away "accidentally". And Kerry has who are going to be present to help anyone who may experience such problems on election day.

[SW FL Dem]

10. I feel good about Florida

I've posted several times about the number of Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers I see every day. This a is a very conservative area. The Dems are organized and very motivated. I personally know of 5 people who voted for Bush who are now working for Kerry. I know of 3 others who didn't vote in 2000 and are now voting for Kerry. We only lost FL by 537 votes. Just in my small circle, that'a a vote swing of 13 (-5 for Bush, +8 for Kerry). I doubt there are many Gore voters that are going to vote for Bush.

[Cuban_Liberal]

11. I've never mentally figured FL as being 'blue' this fall.

They stole it in 2000, and I fully expect they'll try very hard to do so again. We have to figure a strategy where we compete and force Bush to spend $$$ in Florida, but where we win without its EVs...

[deminflorida]

12. Major Grass-Roots Efforts are Underway in the Panhandle.....

including giving away free movie tickets tonight to see Fahrenheit 911 for new registered voters.

The people over in Pensacola are working their tails off.

Grass-roots supporters are getting ready to turn up the heat in the GOP's backyard.

Check out:

www.panhandleforkerry.com

www.santarosaforkerry.com

[MallRat]

13. Just assume we'll lose Florida, and be pleasantly surprised when we win.

There are plenty of electoral map scenarios in which Kerry kicks Bush's ass without Florida in the blue column.

-MR

[marlakay]

14. Our County in CA is calling and signing voters in FL up

ContraCosta county and others in CA that have extra volunteers are calling and even sending people to Florida to help. At a meeting I was at last night they said move on did a calling that registered 20,000 voters over the phone and this weekend they are calling back to make sure they received the form already filled out by what they said on the phone, signed it and mailed it in.

I am signed up to work with WA and also going to reno,NV door to door next week. I have never seen so many volunteers, we will prevail!!!

[Claire Beth]

16. yes! n/t

[featherman]

17. I like Florida to Kerry by +3 or 4

As a former resident, I see Florida is an interesting and complex state. Each region is quite a different mix of red and blue. I see Florida a slightly trending DEM over the past few years. Clinto carried FL in 1996. Florida votes cast (NOT votes counted) in 2000 was likely about +50,000 for Gore. I like Kerry for Florida for several positive versus a couple of negatives:
1. Increase in non-Cuban Hispanic and recent immigrant population along I-4 corridor helps DEM vote.
2. Older strongly RW Cuban vote being increasingly offset by more moderate younger Cuban vote. Total Cuba vote is now about 65-22 Bush versus over 80% for Bush in 2000.
3. Military vote in Panhandle and overseas will be less overwhelmingly Bush than in 2000 due to VA problems and mixed feelings about Iraq tours and extensions.
4. (this is the biggie) A highly motivated DEM vote due to 2000 mess. Especially strong in black community and special attention will be paid to both getting out the vote AND getting it counted this time.
NEGATIVE:
1. Bush has been courting Jewish vote strongly with various policies and this may depress DEM advantage in this traditionally pro-DEM voting bloc.
2. Jeb is still in control of vote counting apparatus

[methinks2]

18. Yes, I live here and I'm worried.

They pulled a coup last time. I believe they'll do it again. (And the protest afterwards won't be covered by the local press.) I'll vote anyway because I always do, but I feel discouraged.