Is Kerry running too cautious a campaign?

[Tom Rinaldo]

What do you think? There is something to be said for giving Bush enough rope to hang himself. There is something to be said for avoiding giving the opposition any clubs to beat you with. And there is something to be said for moving toward the center during the General Election. Anyone want to say any of those things?

I admit I have some concerns about how Kerry will govern if elected (meaning I wonder if he will be as progressive as I want), but I obviously strongly support Kerry over Bush, and I understand that campaign rhetoric isn't an accurate indicator of anything anyway.

My concern is Kerry may not be coming across as a strong enough potential leader, because he is not boldly promoting a sweeping vision for America starkly different than Bush's. While I do care about the substance of Kerry's vision, my concern now is more about style. Does Kerry appear like the strong decisive leader, with clear firm objectives, that our country probably "wants" during a time of increasing threats and danger?

[troublemaker]

1. If the election were held today it would be a Kerry landslide, so why

would I think it's too cautious a campaign?

[blm]

2. Why don't you try making that assessment AFTER the public meets him

and hears his vision at the convention next week?

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. Who says I'm not waiting?

There's nothing wrong with mulling over it now though. What else are these BB's for? I actually believe that on infrequent occasions someone makes a post on an open ended thread like this that offers real and important insights. Could happen, ya never know. And if it does, who is to say that someone who knows someone who knows Kerry might not pick up on it?

[blm]

10. Mulling it over...sure.

But the way you framed it as if he wasn't coming off as a strong enough visionary just seemed unnecessarily premature considering that most regular Americans won't have met Kerry and his vision until next week.

Till that time he is doing exceedingly well with those Americans who HAVE met him and tuned in to who he is.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. It is hard to be blander in potential criticism than I was

in my header post. Really. I even opened by making an abbreviated case for Kerry doing exactly what he has been doing. Don't you think Kerry's campaign team gets together daily, if not more frequently, to assess whether the content style and timing of his message should be tweaked or revised? While they are counting on the Convention to project Kerry's vision, they are not exactly sitting around on their hands waiting for it.

If you think it would be more helpful, you could consider discussion on this thread as brainstorming for how various DU'ers, for better or worse, would like to see Kerry use the opportunity of the Convention to further define his vision to the public, and the manner in which it should best be conveyed. In order to do that effectively, it is useful to assess where matters stand now. I neither meant this to be an anti Kerry thread, nor do I think I presented it in a way that would seem anti Kerry. I am Pro Kerry, just not wildly so, and there are many Democrats like me who are gladly working for his victory in November. My only real interest for the moment is in making that happen.

To be specific, I am not advocating that Kerry go stridently negative in attacking Bush. The contrast of the Kerry - Edwards reasoned and even optimistic approach to the election with the Bush -Cheney go for the throat attack approach can be very beneficial to us. If nothing dramatically more dangerous than what is already happening in the world occurs between now and November, I think we win barring any stupid mistakes. But things may heat up fast regarding Iran, Pakistan could destabilize, North Korea could rattle some missiles, oil flows can be threatened out of the Mid East, terrorists could attack one of our ports, and so on. I do not suggest that Kerry should play on fears of any of that. However should the world go on Red Alert the public will by and large instinctively look for a perceived strong leader.

My concern, to the extent that I have it, is that the Republican effort has concentrated on making Kerry look like a career machine type politician with few real convictions, who will bend over backward to play to his constituency, who is not adverse to changing positions if it is politically expedient to do so. That is not my image of Kerry, that is the image of Kerry that Republicans want the public to have of him. You said: "Till that time (regarding the Convention) he is doing exceedingly well with those Americans who HAVE met him and tuned in to who he is." For the most part that is the politically attuned and the Democratic base that you are talking about. With the broader public, Bush is in trouble, which is very good for us, and they aren't so sure about Kerry yet, which is our potential Achilles heal.

Both sides are constantly busy sowing seeds of doubt about the other side. It behooves us to be vigilant over which seeds they are trying to sow about Kerry, and it is never too early to counteract them judiciously. Should they sprout during a storm there will be little time available to counteract the damage they could pose.

[Yavin4]

4. Compared To Previous Democratic Campaigns, Kerry's Has Been Brilliant

No major scandals. No major faux pas. No nasty primary campaign. Full Dem unity heading into the convention. Going from no money to surpassing Bush in fundraising. Choosing a VP who can give the ticket a huge lift on the campaign trail. And, letting others tear Bush apart without having to lift a finger. Farenheit 9/11 has done more damage to Bush than a million campaign ads. Finally, look at the polls, Kerry is winning, tied, or slightly behind in the major swing states, and this is after a barrage of TV ads from Bush.

Kerry is building a slow lead that Bush will not be able to over take. You can't win the election in July.

[Beetwasher]

5. No, He's Running A POSITIVE Campaign

And it's the smart way to go right now.

The pitch and volume of Bush's negative ads are so over the top it's going to turn a lot of voters off. The last thing Kerry needs to do right now is jump on the negativity bandwagon. In contrast, his positive campaign looks terrific! He's staying above the fray and will be all the better for it.

[AngryLizard]

6. He's opened up a lot since he picked Edwards

I think all the up-beat pictures of them smiling and being a positive looking and sounding team have really helped. It's harder for people to paint him as dour and boring. That whole "wow, why are they touching so much" thing has completely back-fired in their faces because, it's just so ridiculous that Kerry's been joking about it on the campaign trail, for crying out loud, I mean, I'VE even been joking about it, it's so dumb. (Sidenote: Have you guys heard about the repubs calling Edwards "The Breck Girl"? HILARIOUS! That Breck Girl will wipe the floor with you in a courtroom, pal, so you better smile when you say that!)
Secondly, telling people over and over how Kerry is such a liberal, and he did all these things, ooh, he's so BADDD! People who would never have voted for Kerry agree, people who would have voted for Kerry know that it's all bushit, and those who are undecided really don't trust what anyone says anyway. Plus all Bush's ads are dark, and the other guy's bad, and our guy dresses up in a flight suit, look at him, isn't he pretty, all walking upright and all. Yawn.

Bush has NOTHING, he knows it, so all he can do is call Kerry a liberal and warn his base about the bad ole days with Clinton when he was getting blow jobs in the oval office but they all had jobs. Except, of course, he's not talking about the jobs part.

The problem is, the election is so close right now, that it's really a matter of who's going to show up at the polls. That's why I'm actually giving rides to the polls on election day. EVERY vote counts.

We can win this, you guys.

[fdr_hst_fan]

8. What I've found highly amusing

is the Bush campaign's knocking of Kerry and Edwards for being (gasp!) LAWYERS! It reminds me of Michael Douglas and Richard Dreyfuss in "The Ameerican President", when Dreyfuss tries to smear Douglas for being a card-carrying member of the ACLU! Douglas's response? To paraphrase, "Yes I am, why aren't YOU?"

:nopity: :puke:

[leyton]

19. That's an excellent political movie.

I'm always moved by what Douglas says in his press conference addressed at Dreyfuss...

[Protected]

7. Kerry needs to continue using his surrogates to bash Bush

and his failed "war on terror." I guess Kerry doesn't want to start doing this on his own yet, but at some point he has got to expose people to how horrible all of the policies of this President have been.

I'm a bit baffled as to why Bush's support isn't down in the 40-35% area. What are some of the "independent" people thinking by supporting Bush? Bush is "way out of the mainstream" yet people seem to love his crazy agenda that's hurting workers and weakening our country.

[Claire Beth]

9. Kerry is running a "smart" campaign ....

so far they have done everything just as it should be. :kick:

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. I think that you are likely right

I am just scanning the horizon for possible threats. A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link, and the thing is, there is ALWAYS a weakest link, lol. If and when you identify it, you try to strengthen it, and then a different link becomes the weakest. It's a thankless task, but one that always has to be done. I agree with the posters here who think the campaign is in very good shape for this stage of the election. I am simply pointing out what I think might currently be the weakest link.

[bushwakker]

11. The campaign has yet to begin

It makes no sense for him to out there making grand denounciations and pronouncements right now. No one is paying attention and events on the ground would obscure his message.

[no name no slogan]

14. He needs to hammer Shrub more, and differentiate himself

IMHO he needs to nail BushCo's @$$ to the wall on the war and occupation. He needs to stand up and be a proud liberal, not a somewhat guilty moderate.

However, there's still plenty of time in this campaign. I have a feeling he's saving his best stuff for after the convention, when he'll REALLY start kicking Chimpy and F.Y. McSmirky around.

And we, as liberals and progressives, need to keep pressuring him to "go big" on the issues, and not be afraid to talk about REAL Democratic issues, like living wages, curbing corporate power, and protecting American jobs.

[orlin2k]

15. rope-a-dope

He is playing this campaign brilliantly by letting Bush take all these wild swings. Bush and Co have gone after Kerry like mad, Kerry is just letting him run out of steam before the big KO.

[mzmolly]

16. No, he's a *closer* remember... this is his style.

:shrug:

[adamrsilva]

17. Come on people

no one wants to be over-confident but stop being so nervous. Kerry is running a good campaign and he is very likely going to win.

[JI7]

18. yeah, the people who see him who didn't know him before have positive

things to say about him. the big media wont show him so he is going to the people. this is what he did during the primaries. he knows he can't depend on the big media to help him so he goes directly to the people. and the people who see him love him.

[tedoll78]

20. I'm a big numbers kinda guy.. so it's looking good right now.

The electoral college is looking really fine right now. If the election were held today, I'd bet that Kerry wins with 301 electoral votes to Bush's 238.

My current Kerry states: HI/WA/OR/CA/NV/NM/MN/IA/IL/WI/MI/PA/NY/WV/ME/NH/MA/CT/RI/DE/NJ/VT/MD/DC/FL

=========

Outside of numbers, I do think Kerry is running a very cautious campaign right now. Someone mentioned the positive tone set in Kerry's advertising. I think this is smart for several reasons.
First, those ads are Kerry's into to a large number of Americans, and he probably doesn't want the first impression to be one of pessimism, anger, or general negativity.
Secondly, I'll bet that Kerry knows about the army of 527 orgs ready to pummel the Chimp into the ground in August with their negative ads - ads that won't be traced to the Kerry campaign. We've seen a lot of these ads.. they're catchy, non-orthodox, and they hit hard. The formula ads with the grainy black-and-white video of "the evil candidate" and the sinister narrator backed-up with slow, creepy piano music are tired. These new ads will catch peoples' attention.

I also have another theory: Kerry's smart enough to know that many, many votes for him are votes against Bush rather than votes for Kerry. With the way Bush has been operating lately, he has been providing pleeenty of rope.

The Kerry campaign is also probably suspecting that a few key events in August through October will hurt Bush a bit more than he could.
First, and sadly, the death of the 1000th GI in Iraq: it'll be a big media story, and Bush is going to take a hit from it. It's sad, but the American people were soooooo gung-ho about this. Perhaps they'll learn from it..
Second, F9/11 will be released on video: I hate to toot my own horn, but I've been saying for months that this movie is going to tilt the vote by 2 or 3%. Now, Michael Moore goes and says it in an article this past week, hehe! The video release is going to be huge. I can safely say that at least 1/2 of the liberals I know will be buying it (often multiple copies) and spreading it around, and you can bet that it'll be rented like crazy throughout September and October.

Those two stories may decide the election. All of the talk about healthcare, the economy, stem cells, court nominees.. it may all be overshadowed by just a general "wrong direction" feeling that many hold.

I've been predicting for some time that the election will stay close, barring some unfortunate event. I'm predicting a 2% margin in the final polling on the weekend before November 2nd, and I'm predicting a 6-point bounce at most for the conventions. This all points to a trench warfare, get-out-the-vote election, rather than a message-based election. Kerry could talk all he wants about vision, but it probably wouldn't matter much in such a scenario.

The few places where Kerry's style/speechifying will matter will probably be the convention and the debates. This election's all about Bush. If Kerry presents himself as a strong and acceptable alternative and if he avoids screwing-up, he'll hold this lead and win. (and I'd love to see Kerry slam Bush in some sort of "You're no Jack Kennedy" moment, but those come only once in a blue moon.. :) )

[David Dunham]

21. I think your prediction of the states Kerry will win is exactly correct.

[Carolinian]

22. I say... give the Silk Assassin a chance. I trust the K/E team to come

up with a winning strategy. Just look how far they've come in 2 1/2 weeks!

[TNMOM]

23. yes. to get to the recalcitrant rethugs, he's going...

to have to get negative. The lower IQ voters only respond to negatives, unfortunately.