Check out these electoral projections

[KBlagburn]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 310 Bush 217




http://www.electionprojection.com/



2000 Adjustment: Bush -0.7%

EV's: Bush 211, Kerry 327

Pct: Bush 46.7%, Kerry 51.5%


The AP ran a story Sunday saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college. They claim that they following states are tossups: New Mexico, Wisconsin, West Virginia. In a generic sense they are, but the most recent polls in these states are as follows:

State Kerry Bush Poll
New Mexico 49 42 Zogby (July 10)
Wisconsin 48 42 American Research Group (July 15)
West Virginia 43 51 Zogby (July 15)

These leads are well outside the MoE. For the moment, Kerry is ahead in New Mexico and Wisconsin and Bush is ahead in West Virginia.

The story also says Arizona and Missouri are leaning towards Bush. Not according to the data. Here it is

State Kerry Bush Poll
Arizona 42 41 Arizona State Univ. (July 18)
Missouri 48 45 Research 2000 (July 22)

The data say these states are statistical ties. They are not leaning towards Bush at the moment. In fact, to the extent they are leaning at all, it is towards Kerry.

It is certainly true that about 20 states are going to be very close, but there is no basis for saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college now. A more accurate statement would be Kerry has 222 electoral votes strongly for him or leaning in his direction and Bush has 184 strong or leaning. The rest are tossups. There is no basis in current data to suggest Bush is ahead. Perhaps AP should assign a more experienced political reporter to this kind of story next time. (from electoral-vote.com)

[Virginian]

1. This poll could stand the influence of a few DUers.

http://www.softvote.com

You have to download the software. If it comes up that you voted for Bush, just change it to Kerry and vote. It will remove your Bush vote and replace it with a Kerry vote.

This is based on the number of computers with the software. If there are two or more voters sharing the same computer, they get only one vote per computer.

[KBlagburn]

2. Agreed

We need alot of DU'ers to do this.


www.softvote.com


George W. Bush 46.9 %
John Kerry 45.5 %
Ralph Nader 2.7 %
Undecided 4.8 %

[countmyvote4real]

3. Only works for Windows.

Not available for Mac. Well, that pretty much extends the MOE.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Spyware?

[Virginian]

5. I think it's clean

My Spybot and Norton haven't picked up anything on it.

McAfee and Norton both checked it for viruses.

I downloaded it with Secure Delivery.