An electoral map closer to the REAL picture

[Claire Beth]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It's my HOPE that Kerry has a LANDSLIDE WIN - - but I think the map above is probably more accurate than my hopes. :kick:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. I think we take Ohio and lose Arizona

The rest of it looks pretty on target.

On edit: Seriously folks, this looks like a pretty grim scenario (which isn't all that bad to begin with). I think we can take Florida, Ohio, and Arkansas, all of which go to Bush in this scenario. Meanwhile, the only Kerry leaning states I see switching are Arizona and Missouri (MAYBE Nevada, but I've thought all along that they are a more Democratic state than has been speculated). Considering the EVs involved, we have a chance to pick up a hell of a lot more EVs than we stand to lose. That's a good position to be in.

[shindig]

2. WV,NM,WI, MN and

of course, PA and NJ are so important this time. If we can hold those six I mentioned, and no surprises on everything else we usually take, including holding MI, OR and WA, then if we can grab OH, we win!

If the above scenario happens, we don't need IA, AZ, MO, NV or FL, or anything else in the south for that matter, and we still win.

Gotta get WV back, hold that upper midwest, and win OH, and hold PA and NJ, and, of course no surprises on all our so-called "in-the-bag" states.

OMG I just hope everyone can just stay excited and get out there and vote!

[Claire Beth]

4. I'm in Tennessee....

where Kerry and Bush are tied at 48 percent each. I knew all along TN was going to be a swing state even when they had it in red for Bush. I have been hearing negative comments about Bush for well over a year - - even from people who voted for him in 2000. I know TN will be close but will probably go with Kerry this time. I'm doing everything I can to see a Kerry victory here. :kick:

[POed_Ex_Repub]

3. I wouldn't even look at the map, other than to know where to campaign more

No matter what we need to play it like we're behind and take NOTHING for granted.

[Claire Beth]

5. agree! n/t

[underpants]

6. According to that Kerry 290 Bush 237 with 11 out

Even with Tennessee W still would LOSE!!!!!!

[Claire Beth]

12. we will win MORE of the "close" states, too......

I think we have the election unless Kerry does something REALLY dumb. Well of course the gopers could steal it again, but we hope not. :kick:

[TexasSissy]

7. We simply MUST win Ohio! That's a must win!

[AlecBGreen]

8. i dont know about their conclusions

it has Kerry 10 points over Bush in PA...doubt that. It also says Kerry is behind Bush 8% in WV but only behind 5% in VA...that one is hard to swallow too. Lastly (and this is how i know the whole thing stinks) is that it has OHIO AND FLORIDA for Bush. HE WILL GET NEITHER OF THESE TWO STATES!

[liberalpragmatist]

9. This is based on the most recent polling

the site isn't predicting a winner. It is just projecting where the race stands right now based on the most recent polling data. For instance, a few days ago, Florida was blue b/c the next most recent poll had Kerry up in Fla. The most recent poll is a USA Today/Gallup poll that has Bush up in Fla. by 3.

The same pattern holds throughout. Some states haven't had polling in a while - all this shows is what is the most recent polling per state.

[fujiyama]

10. The LA Times poll

did have Kerry up by ten. I agree though, that it's probably an outlier though. Kerry is probably up there between 5-7 pts though.

On the other hand, I don't even pay attention to Zogby Interactive polls. They're worthless. Kerry may or may not be behind in WV (the last "scientific" poll I saw had Kerry ahead).

I really hope Bush loses both FL and OH. Polls in these two states are all over the place (Kerry's up one day, Bush the next), so they are true swing states. If that's the case, there's no way in hell for him to win. Even if he loses one of them, it'll be very difficult for him to win the election.

[dolstein]

11. Actually, this map is misleading

The distinction between exactly tied, barely Bush and barely Kerry is artificial given the margin of error in all of these polls.

[tom22]

13. If we can't carry

Michigan. Minn. NH and Maine we deserve to lose. Even on this map we look awfully good for a challenger to a war time president. We are in good shape. Keep The Faith!

[tom22]

14. Oh and PA

we have to carry that. Florida I think is in the bag.