Federal Review Composite: Kerry 291, Bush 247 (7-27-07)

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

A GOOD FOUNDATION FOR THE DNC

Bush 48.0% – 247 EV | Kerry 49.1% – 291 EV

EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 200| Kerry 260| Toss 78

As John Kerry enters his convention, he has firmed up his lead in the Electoral College, while slipping just a bit in the national popular vote. His popular vote lead in the Composite Vote has dropped by 0.8% and his Electoral Vote lead has fallen by 1, but the states that he still has have moved further into his column.

While Kerry/Edwards trails Bush/Cheney in safe states (where the lead is greater than 12%) by 98-125, they have increased their lead among states where the margin of lead is greater than 2%. In those states, which I designate as at least leaning Kerry/Edwards, the Democrats have 260 electoral votes. There are 72 electoral votes in toss-up states. Kerry/Edwards only need 10 of those. Forget Florida, Missouri will do. Or just West Virginia and Nevada.

That’s a great position for the Democratic ticket to be in right as their convention starts. Expect a slight bounce in the popular vote next week, but the spin from the Democrats, which will actually be true, will be that the Democrats have taken the lead in enough states to win the Electoral College. I’d expect to see several of the toss-up states move into Kerry’s column by next week, unless they continue the themes they’ve started in the convention – not that Bush is wrong, but in their zeal to try to keep from looking like nothing more than Bush haters, they have replaced “Bush” with “America”. We have to “restore the greatness of America”, as Jimmy Carter said. What, America isn’t great any more. The Democrats have 3 days to right the ship (or is that left the ship?), and I suspect they’ll do so enough to swing Ohio and Florida into their column. At least until the Olympics.

[MichiganVote]

1. Go Kerry Go!!!!!!!

[lancdem]

2. There's nothing wrong with the Dems' strategy, IMO

I disagree with with writer here.

[phillybri]

3. Kick

:kick:

[Mountainman]

4. And still the cable news question asked yesterday

Why can't Kerry pickup any ground agaist Bush?

[belle]

5. Confusing that they make the Repubs blue & the Dems red here...

[phillybri]

7. He said that's how it's traditionally done: Incumbent in blue....

Challenger in red...Definitely not what we're used to...

[dusty64]

6. I've seen all six

"swing" states going both ways lately, although NH has seemed to stay in the Kerry column. The scary thing is that if this holds true (my gut says it won't) on election day and Kerry just picks up Nevada or West Virginia there will be a 269-269 tie.

[DarthDem]

8. Which Six?

Which are the swing states in your mind? FL, OH, MO . . . ?