Rasmussen: Kerry 48, Bush 45. The Convention bounce is starting!

[MallRat]

Actually, Rasmussen disagrees on this interpretation, but I think it's partly true.

Rasmussen's tracking poll is a 3-day rolling average. Today's numbers are based on interviews from 7/25 to 7/27. The vast majority of polling was completed before last night's speeches, so the 3-point lead really only reflects the bounce from Monday night (Carter, Gore, and the Clintons).

Tomorrow's poll numbers will include the impact from Kennedy-Dean-Obama-THK, but not Edwards' acceptance from tonight.

:bounce:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

-MR

[Rose Siding]

1. I hope you're right

Yesterday's WP poll was so demoralizing

[RodneyCK2]

2. I seriously doubt we are going to get the bounce...

everyone is talking about, 10-15%, unless Kerry's speech is extremely well perceived. *crosses fingers*

[MallRat]

3. I agree. I think it'll be more like 5-6%.

There aren't 15% undecided left to be picked up.

[Frances]

6. Today Zogby said there are only 5% undecided

The 15% came from Rove, the same man who played down Bush so much before the 2000 debates. When people saw that Bush could speak at all, they declared that he won the debates.

No, we will get a bounce but it will be spun as "disappointing." My only consolation is that Rove must be in panic mode.

[MikeG]

7. That works two ways - It will be harder for them to catch up too.

[Trajan]

4. "Everyone" talking about 15 % are GOP ...

No one with an ounce of gray matter is making such a claim, and certainly, the Democrats are not .... The GOP want to set up expectations so when the 5% bounce happens: it seems a failure ...

There isnt 15% worth of PLAY between the hardcore supporters ... There is NO WAY EITHER camp will get such a bounce ...

In a close race like this: a bounce of 5% could be devastating to the GOP .... I think We will get that ...

[TexasSissy]

14. I agree. I'd be suprised at more than 3%. The country is so divided, and

most people have decided. There's not much room for a bounce. Typically the undecideds stay that way until right before the election, I've heard.

I expect we'll get a few undecideds and maybe a few moderate Repubs. I'd be surprised at more. But hey, that means Kerry's already done a pretty good job at getting what's there to be got.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. Cross your fingers, but don't expect much

Clearly, this issue this year is Bush the Frat Boy. Most people know exactly how they feel about him. Minds are already made up. This election features fewer undecided voters at this point than in past elections. That doesn't make much rubber for a bounce.

Of course, convention bounces can be overrated. Leaving the Democratic National Convention in 1988, Dukakis had a 17-pont lead over Bush the Preppy. We all know what happened to that.

Right now, Kerry has a narrow lead. My biggest concern is that Terry McAuliffe, Al From and that crowd will again find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[dolstein]

8. Sorry, but Kerry at 48 isn't a bounce

Kerry's been at 48 before. For Kerry, the big breakthrough would be getting above 50 percent in the polls in a three way match-up. I'm not sure he's done this yet.

Of course, national polls are completely worthless at this point, other than for PR value. The state polls are what really matters.

[jsw_81]

9. Bush is so screwed

Any incumbent who is at 45 percent three months before the election is going down. I hope the freeps are ready for President Kerry, because that's what they're going to get! Then President Edwards, President Obama... :)

[Spiffarino]

10. I like the cut of your jib, jsw.

:)

[DaveofCali]

11. I doubt that

I doubt that Kerry is going to give that much of a boost. The Major Networks are not giving much coverage to the convention (thus why convention viewership is down by 4 million compared to 2000) and the News Networks are flooding the convention coverage with pundits talking and inserting doubt to Kerry (using republican talking points!) It looks like the TV networks are doing what they can to dilute this convention and the message that this convention gives to have as little impact as possible while still not explicitly appearing like they are biased.

[osaMABUSh]

12. Actually lack of convention coverage may be a good thing

The way the media is spinning this for Bush the less coverage of both conventions, the better.

[Seabiscuit]

13. By Friday

this poll will show a 10% difference.

And remember, all those who saw the Michale Moore interview today, these are only "likely voters" who are polled.

As Michael Moore pointed out, 50% of Americans didn't vote in the 2000 election.

The "likely voters" pollsters rely on are Americans who have "consistently" voted during past elections.

The 50% are the ones who are being swayed by F-9-11, who most oftenly remark, after leaving the movie theater, "I never saw any of that on the news!"

These 50% of Americans who didn't vote in 2000 are the ones who will decide this election, not the 5-10% of those a-hole "undecideds" the pollster refer to. As Moore and others have pointed out, what's wrong with the DLC's approach of trying to appeal to the "center" of American politics, is that the right has continued to shift farther and farther to the right during the past eight years, and by approaching the center, the DLC has become more and more right-wing.

This sucks.

Kerry should listen more to Edwards and Kucinich and Dean. They are the voices of America today. They are the ones who energized out party and Kerry should abandon the DLC platform and go after the traditional Democratic base, which Michael Moore, almost alone, is appealing to.

[Nicholas_J]

15. Well the latest Zogby Battleground State Polls

Have Kerry leading in 12 battleground states while Bush is ahead in 4.

In fact Kerry in now head in 4 of the battleground states that Bush won in 2000.

And oddly enough, this is a boots for Bush compared to earlier polls in battleground states.

Only one recent polls has Bush ahead of Kerry and that is the ABC/Washington Post poll.

All of the recalculations of Electoral College votes done todat still have Kerry with significant leads over Bush:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 291 Bush 237

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Electoral Votes: Bush 263, Kerry 275
Popular Vote: Bush 48.0%, Kerry 50.2%

http://www.electionprojection.com/

Current:

Kerry 218 EV Bush 188

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

One sign that seems to be overwhelmingly positive for Kerry is that the one site that has been projecting electoral votes that was the most supportive of Bush, and has been trying to utilize every possible statistical method to find some way in which curent trends could possibly be put togetther in such a way to indicate a possible Bush win has completely disappeared this week, seemingly out of despair in their part.


So far, everything point to a Kerry victory, at least in the electoral college, no matter what the polls taken nationally seem to indicate. THe presidency is won state by state, and right now, Kerry is winning in more states that have the greater number of electtoral votes.

Conservatives everywhere seem to be getting very desperate.

What happens tomorrow night when Kerry accepts the nomination will be when the polls start really reflecting things.