ARG: Iowa Bush 47% Kerry 47%; West Virginia Kerry 48% Bush 44%

[tritsofme]

Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Iowa

George W. Bush and John Kerry remain tied among likely voters in Iowa according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 46% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Bush is at 47% and Kerry is at 47%, with 6% undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Iowa. Of the 600 likely voters, 34% are registered as Republicans, 35% are registered as Democrats, and 31% are not registered with any party or registered with a minor party. The interviews were conducted July 26 through 28, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ia/


Kerry and Bush Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in West Virginia

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among likely voters in West Virginia according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 44% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided. These numbers are unchanged from June.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry leads Bush 48% to 44%, with 8% undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in West Virginia. Of the 600 likely voters, 33% are registered as Republicans, 58% are registered as Democrats, and 9% are not affiliated with any party (independents) or are affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted July 26 through 28, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wv/


Set aside Rasmussen, ARG probably had the worst record of major pollsters in 2000. They had Gore ahead big in a handful of Southern states that weren't even close. I don't take their polls very seriously, but its interesting to look at nonetheless.

[rocktivity]

1. Is ARG an acronym, or your reaction?

:headbang:
rocknation

[tritsofme]

3. American Research Group nt

[iconoclastic cat]

2. Are the "likely voters" polls credible?

Thanks for the info!

[WI_DEM]

4. not very good news from Iowa

[formernaderite]

7. Well, I'm assuming we'll see a bump after tonight....

....Kerry will (or had better) hit a home run...

[Zynx]

8. Iowa is not a Dem state at all.

[tritsofme]

9. Its gone for the Dems in every Presidential election since 1984.

But it was a skin tight race in 2000.

[Tweed]

5. Asked a lot more Democrats then Republicans in WV?

"From West Virginia: "33% are registered as Republicans, 58% are registered as Democrats, and 9% are not affiliated with any party"

Why would you ask more Democrats then Republicans? Why is Kerry losing 10% of Democrats?

[tritsofme]

6. WV has a hellofalot more registered Dems than Repubs. nt

[carpetbagger]

13. It's right on the mark.

They got 58-33, the real numbers are 59-29.

I never thought highly of Joe Manchin, but I think he might just lend some coattails to Kerry.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. Then I consider Mr. Manchin a freind of mine.

[featherman]

10. Have faith in Iowa

Voted solidly DEM for four straight elections and have seen recent polls with Kerry up by 8%. Don't make too much of each poll as it comes out (good news or bad). You gotta look at movement and flow, make adjustments for bias in methodology, compare polls, look at electoral history, etc. It is a very inexact science. Regardless how the polls ebb and flow, I am convinced that this key upper midwest DEM voting bloc (IL, MI, IA, MN, WI) will end up in the Kerry camp on Nov 2.

[Beetwasher]

11. Yup, I Agree, Most of Those Undecideds in Those States Are Gonna Go JK

You can bank on it!

Welcome to DU! Good post!

[tritsofme]

12. Gore only won Iowa by 4,000 votes.

This state is up for grabs, and continues to need serious resources poured into it.

[fujiyama]

15. I'm really glad about the WV numbers

Gore shouldn't have lost that state. Even Dukakis won it.

IA was won by Gore by only 4000-5000 votes (about .2% I think). Actually, according the article in the US News if only those voters that came to the polls that day were counted, Bush would have won. A lot of democrats voted by absentee, which is what put Gore over the top.

Looking at the polls in this state, Kerry has a slight (2-3%) but consistent lead in most polls. Kerry definetely shouldn't take the upper midwest for granted -- IA, WI, and MN are all very close.