That's why I did this analysis to prove Kerry is significantly
ahead. Even in the whoremedia's own polls.
Case in point:
Here are 16 national polls.
Kerry is ahead in 13 of them.
His mean (average) polling number is 47.94%.
Bush is ahead in three and has a mean of 45.06%.
Kerry leads by 2.88%.
Doesn't seem like much, right?
Let's do some statistical analysis.
We can say with 99% confidence, that Kerry's real population
percentage is within the range 46.15% - 49.73%.
We can also say with 99% confidence, that Bush's numbers are
between 43.72% - 46.40%. There is only a 0.49% chance that his
actual population mean is over 46.40%. That's one-half of one
percent.
Moral of this story: Don't listen to the Bushit pundits. Kerry
is solidly ahead as of today. The more polls, the more
confident we can be in making that statement.
Its called the Standard Error of the Mean statistic.
MATHEMATICAL TRUTH IS ALL
KERRY NATIONAL POLL WIN PROBABILITY
Based on 16 National Polls
Kerry % Kerry % of other/undecided
"------- Kerry Bush vs. Bush 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
TIME 50.0 45.0 52.6 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
FOX 45.0 44.0 50.6 50.5 51.6 52.7 53.8 54.9
CNN 49.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.2 52.6
LAT 48.0 46.0 51.1 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.8 53.4
PEW 46.0 44.0 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
IBD 44.0 41.0 51.8 51.5 53.0 54.5 56.0 57.5
CBS 49.0 44.0 52.7 52.5 53.2 53.9 54.6 55.3
DEMC 52.0 45.0 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
WP 48.0 49.0 49.5 49.5 49.8 50.1 50.4 50.7
NWK 51.0 45.0 53.1 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.6
ZOGBY 46.0 44.0 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
AP 45.0 49.0 47.9 48.0 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.4
NBC1 54.0 43.0 55.7 55.5 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7
NBC2 45.0 47.0 48.9 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.2
ARG 49.0 45.0 52.1 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.4
QPAC 46.0 43.0 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
Mean 47.94 45.06 51.53 51.44 52.14 52.84 53.54 54.24
Std 2.77 2.08 1.82 1.75 1.68 1.69 1.76 1.89
Stdm 0.69 0.52 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.44 0.47
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):
Upper 53.37 49.13 55.10 54.87 55.44 56.15 56.99 57.95
Lower 42.50 40.99 47.96 48.01 48.84 49.53 50.08 50.52
X 49.13 49.13 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Prob >
x 33.34% 2.50% 79.92% 79.44% 89.77% 95.35% 97.77% 98.74%
Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):
95% Confidence Limits
Range Kerry Bush
Upper 49.30 46.08
Lower 46.58 44.05
x 46.08 46.08
Prob > x 99.63% 2.50%
Probability:
95.00% Kerry within Upper-Lower Range
99.63% Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit
2.50% Bush exceeds his Upper Limit
99% Confidence Limits
Range Kerry Bush
Upper 49.73 46.40
Lower 46.15 43.72
x 46.40 46.40
Prob > x 98.67% 0.49%
Probability:
99.00% Kerry within Upper-Lower Range
98.67% Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit
0.49% Bush exceeds his Upper Limit
Notes:
Std =Standard Deviation (variability)
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean
Stdm = Std / sqrt(n) = Std / sqrt(16) = Std/4
95% Confidence Limits formula:
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96*Stdm
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96* Stdm
99% Confidence Limits formula:
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58*Stdm
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58* Stdm
Notes:
NBC1 - Princeton Associates
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal
CNN - Gallup
WP - ABC