Fun with polling data

[lapfog_1]

I've been meaning to do this for a while.

I went to the web site electoral-vote.com and downloaded
their raw polling data as a spread sheet. Then I played a
game where I removed Nader as a possibility and gave his
voters to Kerry (it's an assumption that they would vote for
Kerry, but I think a valid one).

There is no way for Bush to win.

It's Kerry 301 to Bush 184 with 53 toss ups in the electoral college.

So if you give Bush ALL of the "barely bush" votes, plus all of
the tie votes, he still needs 33 votes from state which would
be in the "barely Kerry" column. And that means that Bush would
have to win 3 of Arizona, Tennessee, Missouri and Minnesota, plus
1 of either Iowa or Nevada. Plus he has to win both Florida and
Ohio and Arkansas where he would be tied with Kerry.

I just don't see how he can do it.

Course, this is with Nader gone and Nader voters moving to Kerry.
Sigh.

[NV1962]

1. Intriguing analysis

I must say.

But - have you also considered giving all Republican votes to Nader? Given their obvious enthusiasm to get him on the ballot, that assumption stands at least as much to reason.

Or this: all votes go to Kerry, following the truism that nobody likes to back a loser.

Picture that.

[lapfog_1]

2. Huh?

So let me get this straight...

You believe that the assumption that Nader voters would vote for Kerry
if Nader withdraws and endorses Kerry (or simply withdraws) is as
valid as assuming that all republicans will vote for Nader? Because
they helped put him on the ballot in a few states and are contributing
to his campaign?

Ok, whatever.


I just wanted to see what the data would look like if Nader wasn't
in the picture. Let's say that NONE of the Nader voters would
vote for Kerry OR Bush, they then drop out of the polls because
most of these polls (if not all of them) first ask if you are a
"likely voter". Then my what if game is still valid, though, of
course, not as strong.

Anyway, it's a what if... Nader isn't going to drop out, so that
makes getting Kerry in that much harder, plus it makes the second
theft of the election so much easier because the rigged results
won't be THAT MUCH different than the polling data. Welcome to
2000 all over again.