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Edited on Fri Jul-30-04 02:43 PM by Nicholas_J
He said that Kerrys speech and call to avoid negative campaigning during the period leading up until the election have leftt Bush in an extrememly precarious position. Brooks, the conversative on Mc Neil Lehrer was extremely firm about this causing a great deal of trouble for Bush in that if he goes negative on Kerry, particularly affer the image presented of him during the convention could easily cost Bush the election. Kerry was in fine form for his acceptance speech, as one would expect him having been one of the best debaters on the Yale debate team in its entire history. Kerry does not speak often, being a man of action rather than words, and this was made very clear during his acceptance, When he needs to speak, he can speak better than virtually anyone else, but he made it very clear without going negative that the president is all talk and no action.
Kerry's plan seems to have worked well, as national polling today has moved him from being two points behind Bush in the last poll at the beginning of the convention, to being fifve pointss ahead of Bush as of noon today.
With a large percentage of the nation supporting Bush himself as a person of conviction, Kerry's best shot is to agree with Bushh's motivation on Iraq, but oppose his method, making it clear that it may have been necessary to deal with Saddam, but there was absolutely no reason that this could not have been put off until Al Qaeda, the immediate threat to the U.S., was dealt with. Which was something Kerry also made abundandly clear last night.
Bush's attacks on Kerry may firm up his base support, but all polling evidence indicateds that going negative will cost him among the undecided, who tend to be much more moderate than Bush's core support, and frequently consists of conservative democrats.
Ont Tuesday, the ABC?Washington Post National Polls had Kerry two pooint behind Bush, Todays Zogby places Kerry 5 points ahead orf Bush, which is a net gain of 7 point in a national poll, while Rasmussens polls have Kerry three points ahead of Bush , a net gain of five points.
THe Zogby polls show little movement for Kerry/Edwards since their own last poll, but show a big loss in support for Bush, with most of the difference appearing as loss of support for Bush over the last three weeks (Bush Cheney losing 3 point during this period, while udecidededs moved exactly 3 points from five percent to eight percent). So the indication is that BUsh is doing something wrong in his campaigning.
THe Rasmussen polls show that for the entire period of the convention, Kerry has held the same lead over Bush, which is the longest period that Kerry has held a continual lead over BUsh in Rasmussens daily tracking polls)
Kerry's speech was written in longhand by himself, but much of it was polished by some of the remaining speech writers of John F. Kennedy.
The American public. and more importantly, the undecided swing voters have made something very clear this yeart, and the evidence of it can be found in the results of the Iowa Caucuses. The two candidates in Iowa, who were considered shoe ins for first and second place, both lost to John Kerry and John Edwards. The factor consider most responsible for this last minute turn around. The negative campaigning of both Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt.
It was very clear in the heartland that the electorate does not want to see negative campaigning at all.
Among the analysts of Kerry's speech last night U.S.A. Today noted:
And he offered a variation on Bush's campaign promise in 2000 to restore honor and dignity to the Oval Office. "As president, I will restore trust and credibility to the White House," he said.
Kerry's strategists succeeded in the goals they set for the convention: Projecting a consistent message. Avoiding public division. Limiting the bashing of Bush. (Kerry mentioned his opponent by name just twice.)
The risk is whether the restraint designed to appeal to swing voters might fail to energize core Democrats who are fiercely anti-Bush.
And whether Kerry strategists succeeded in their larger goal — convincing voters in such battleground states as Ohio, Wisconsin, Oregon and Maine that Kerry can be trusted to protect them in a dangerous world — is hard to judge. Pollsters were in the field the moment Kerry's speech ended to measure that.
Well some of the polls are in today, and they seem to indicate that Kerry's approach is helping him. BUe the polls have indicated something else, that Bush's attack approach is certainly hurting him.
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