Gallups Analysis of Why The Race Is So Close

[salonghorn70]

http://gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12544


"Values" Seen as Most Important Characteristic of Presidential Candidates
"Flip-flopper," "optimistic," "knowledgeable" not strongly related to vote choice


by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Although the campaigns of President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry have attacked each other's candidates on various personal grounds -- for example, that Kerry is a "flip-flopper," or that Bush does not care about the needs of the average American -- the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey suggests many of those criticisms are falling on deaf ears. Only a few characteristics appear to correlate with voters' choices of a presidential candidate.

[RobinA]

1. Lemme Get This Straight

People think BUSH, George W Bush, the guy in the White House, knows more about the issues than John Kerry?

See, how do you reach people who think that?

[salonghorn70]

3. "How do you reach people who think that?"

It makes you wonder doesn't it.:shrug:

Actually, I think that you reach them in the Debates. That is when the voters are really focused on the election. I still think that this is going to be like 1980. The race will stay close until the Debates and then undecided breaks to our hero, the good guy, JK.

[Birthmark]

2. Let me help Gallup out here.

Here's the real analysis: Gallup doesn't know what the hell they are doing. There! That should cut through the treacle nicely.

[salonghorn70]

4. Why Do You Think That?

Let's have some discussion.

[Birthmark]

5. Their accuracy in prior Presidential elections is underwhelming.

My cat is probably as competent.

NOTE: I pay no attention to Gallup whether they think my guy is winning or losing. They are just too inept.

[tritsofme]

7. You my friend are wrong,

Show me one Presidential election in the past 50 years that they have gotten outside the MoE?

[Birthmark]

8. Operating from memory here.

Clinton in '92, for one. I don't have a link to Gallup and don't feel like wading through their site. Gallup sucks. They're pretty good at stating the obvious, though. I'm almost sure that they picked Reagan in '84. lol

[tritsofme]

9. 1992 wasn't their best in that...

They oversampled for Clinton and under for Perot.

Their final poll was Clinton leading Bush and Perot 49-37-14%.

The actual result was a Clinton win 43-38-19%.

However, their second to the last poll in late October was a Clinton lead 43-36-14.

[Birthmark]

10. You are shifting the goal posts, tritsofme

You asked for one in the last fifty years. I think that I delivered. If we are going to include any poll prior to the election that matches fairly well, rather than the just last poll, then they were probably right in every single election in history...well, maybe not Dewey-Truman...but that's not terribly useful. Surely you see what I mean?

I don't really take any single pollster all that seriously. I try to look at as many as possible and see what they are saying collectively. I don't do the math, just eyeball it. I find that it works as well as anything unless one is just a numbers fanatic (which is fine, btw). There's really only one meaningful poll. It's taken in November.

[tritsofme]

11. They have a better record than anyone else

And if overstating Clinton and understating Perot is the worse they've done, then they are hardly not reliable.

Agreed in that the only poll that matters comes in November.

[Birthmark]

12. Better than anyone else is a different claim.

I haven't evaluated it, so I can't say.

[tritsofme]

6. Because if we don't like results we ignore them.

Simple as that.

[Birthmark]

13. I call bullshit!

I have explained my reasoning in a fairly respectful and thoughtful way. I specifically stated that I wouldn't trust them anymore if they support my position. So your contention here is both unfair and inaccurate.

[tritsofme]

14. Not specifically aimed at you

just an observation aimed at any politicos on the internet.

We all love poll results that favor our guy and claim bias to anything else.

[Birthmark]

15. My mistake then. Sorry.

I agree that there is a tendency for people to act that way.

[depakid]

16. Gallop would say that- given its fundie Christian bent

I wouldn't believe one word of it-

See, e.g. http://www.creatingnewworlds.org/gallup.htm

[salonghorn70]

18. Christian Right Has Nothing To Do With It

Don't you think that most Americans want a President who shares their values?

[depakid]

19. The hell it doesn't....

Here's the breakdown. You tell me whether you think that this is an accurate reflection of reality or whether it reflects preconceptions manipulated by the methodology of the survey:

Personal Traits of Candidates -- Importance in Predicting the Vote for President:

Importance Score in Predicting How People Will Vote:

Shares your values 100%

Can manage the government effectively 49%

Is honest and trustworthy 43%

Party affiliation (of respondents) 35%

Is a person you admire 30%

Is knowledgeable about the issues 13%

Is a strong and decisive leader 9%

Does not change his positions on issues for political reasons 5%

Cares about the needs of people like you 3%

Has an optimistic vision for the country's future 3%

"The traits were given "importance scores," which indicate their relative importance to vote choice. The trait with the highest correlation to vote choice ("shares your values") was assigned a value of 100 on this scale. The next-highest trait ("can manage the government effectively") received a score of 49 because its correlation with vote choice is only 49% as powerful as the highest correlation."

Frankly, this is so thinly veiled that it isn't even good sophistry....

[salonghorn70]

20. I Do Think That It Reflects Reality

I do believe that most Americans want a Pesident who shares their values. The poll results stated that among likely voters Kerry had an advantage of 47-46 over Bush in regards to which candidate shares your values.

[wish_I_could_vote]

17. the only reason the polls are so close

is that if they weren't, people would not be wanting new polls every day. JMO

[depakid]

21. hmmm-

yet another potential conflict of interest?