OMG! Zogby post-speech poll shows Kerry ahead in SOUTH by 2%!!!

[Dems Will Win]

Mr. Bush has also shown weakness in what is considered to be his best region, the South. While Kerry’s choice of Senator John Edwards gives him his biggest boost, his economic populism and courting of veterans are also key in his eroding of Mr. Bush’s support. Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

Mr. Kerry is also performing well in Blue states, among Young voters and among Single voters. In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

There are three factors contributing to Senator Kerry’s lead in the electorate; first is President Bush’s eroding base, second is his failure in outreach to swing groups and base Democratic constituencies, and third is Mr. Kerry’s strengthening of his base. Mr. Kerry also has the potential to open a bigger lead in two areas. First, among the undecided voters, if Mr. Kerry can sell himself as a viable alternative to Mr. Bush, he stands to make large gains amongst the small, but significant chuck of undecideds. Second is in the turnout arena, Mr. Kerry’s large leads amongst Hispanics – who will potentially make up a great portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 – and young voters – who numerous non-partisan groups like Rock the Vote and MTV are targeting – will stand to boost his total share of the vote with every point their turnout increases. Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

Zogby won't release the totals yet on this new post-speech poll!! Look at age 18-29!! Here come the Millennials!

YEEEHAH!

[mzmolly]

1. WOW!

:bounce:

[juajen]

2. This is wonderful news

Thank you for posting this. My whole family (daughters, boyfriends, etc.) are going to volunteer for his campaign. The convention was a huge success. I am not ashamed to say this is directly influenced by my participation in democratic activism in the past two years. Hubbie is also enthused and is going to volunteer. Will wonders never cease?

[Greedy Oil Puritan]

9. Tell me about it. :-)

Seven people are causing my family to be far more radicalised:

Myself
My sister's boyfriend
Al Franken
Michael Moore
Jack Layton
John Kerry
John Edwards

[mom cat]

3. Landslide..............Landslide..............Landslide.................

:grouphug: and it's going to get better. We need a huge mandate for Kerry and a legislature that he can work with.:dem:

[NJCher]

4. thanks for posting this, Dems Will Win

It really makes my night, and that is even after seeing The Manchurian Candidate and having a few drinks!!


Cher

[quaoar]

5. I'm in Alabama

Where the latest poll shows Bush ahead by 21 fucking points.

So I have a bit of trouble believing this.

Although I hope like hell it is true.

[KBlagburn]

6. I'm in ALABAMA too!!

I am afraid that alabama is going to Bush in a landslide. As such I have pretty much come to the conclusion to try to campaign here for kerry would be a waste of energy and resources that could best be used elsewhere. But I can hope we can turn the tide in other southern states.
:kick:

[mdguss]

7. Work:

A landslide is possible, but not likely. We must work VERY hard throughout the campaign. Bush is going to spend millions of dollars in the next few weeks. This poll was taken at a time when the Republican Party has yet to respond.

Do not rest on polls. Go door to door, call people when its raining, talk to your family and friends, write letters to the editor, go to rallies, and fight for what we all believe in.

This poll shows Kerry has what it takes, but 97 days is a long time, and there's much work to do between now and November 2nd 2004.

[Phelan]

12. Start volunteering for Kerry down here

The Alabama for Kerry people in the Magic City are a very good bunch of people. IMO a little too optimistic since they think they can win given the chance but hey as long as they make Dubya spend a couple of extra dollars, it all will have been worth it.
But yeah, Alabama by a landslide for Bush... they show his face at all Auburn homegames on the Jumbotron for crying out loud. Yet another reason to be a Bama fan ;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. That Poll WAs Taken Before Kerry's Speech...

Think about it....

Pollsters aren't randomly calling people at midnight and asking them their presidential choice....

[Greedy Oil Puritan]

10. 48 - 43 Bush in the Mid-West?

What states comprise the Mid-West in Zogby's polls?

There tends to be some shifting borders among the Mid-West, Mountain West, and Peripheral South.

I venture to say:

Michigan
Illinois
Ohio
Indiana
Nebraska
Kansas
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota
Minesota
Wisconsin
Iowa

Michigan will go for Kerry by 4 - 6%.

Illinois will handily go Democratic.

Ohio remains to close to call but leans GOP

Indiana will be a gimme for Dumbya.

Nebraska isn't even worth Kerry's time.

Kansas is Kansas.'Nuff said.

Missouri is on the same boat as Ohio.

The Dakotas will easily go for Bush.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa will go Democratic by 2 - 3%.

Hmmm...Maybe those numbers are reasonable.

[IronLionZion]

11. I reckon we'll win Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia

and have a fighting chance in Virginia and North Carolina

[Claire Beth]

19. I'm in Tennessee and I have seen....

several Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers. At least more than the W's. I have been hearing for MONTHS now from people who voted for Bush in 2000 and are Not voting for him this time. People here in my area don't have much good to say about Bush and most are changing to Kerry.

[carolinayellowdog]

20. And a better than fighting chance in Louisiana

Where Catholicism might be a Kerry advantage. I vote in VA but spend half my time and own a house in NC. Keep wondering which state has a better likelihood for Kerry. My guess as to the order of likelihood for a Southern win:

1. FL
2. TN
3. AR
4. WV
5. LA
6. VA
7. NC

I think Edwards can deliver Southern electoral votes but doubt he can deliver NC's. Clinton will be a campaign advantage in AR and LA, Gore in TN. AR and LA both have 2 Dem senators to help too. West by God Virginians may resent being classified as Southerners, BTW.

[connecticut yankee]

13. The statistics are great but

they won't do any good if people don't vote.

Please do all you can to GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[Greedy Oil Puritan]

16. Many are predicting...

Record minority and youth turn-outs for this election.

[Selwynn]

14. 2% is basically inside the +/- margin, but trends do look good.

[wyldwolf]

15. Interesting part here...

...which shows how the base of the democratic party is defined differently than some on DU define it...

The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.

Here, Zogby refers to the base of the party and the swing constituency as being voters Bush has sought out. If the base is the further left/progressive portion of our party, (as some on DU propose) then the base in almost opposite of the swing constituency.

Zogby's interpretation is closer to my belief - that the base of the party is moderate to slightly left of center.

[salonghorn70]

23. You Are Correct

The base of the Democratic Party is middle of the road with a slight tilt to the left. I will concede that many Democratic party "activists" are much further to the left.

[TexasSissy]

17. Wowzeewowwow! What a surprise! The South, no less!

This is overwhelming! Even if it's only a bump from the convention, I am amazed that Kerry was able to dig into Bush's strong base in the south. Kerry and Edwards must be pretty pleased today!

[LiberalPersona]

18. I'm hoping that

Kerry has a chance of winning Kansas. The local newspaper says that he'll be fighting an uphill battle here, but people are listening because of the issue of jobs, which is one of the important issues here.

[LiberalManiacfromOC]

21. YAY!

:party: :bounce:

[DaveSZ]

22. "The base"

I think "the base" is probably made up of many of those like the delegates at the DNC convention, or perhaps a little less progressive than those folks.