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Sorry, I don't trust these "conversions" one single bit.....

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vi5 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 09:03 AM
Original message
Sorry, I don't trust these "conversions" one single bit.....
Edited on Sat Jul-31-04 09:03 AM by vi5
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure people are actually having conversations with people who are disillusioned with bush and who are saying they will either sit it out or vote for Kerry. But I hope people don't let that give us false hope or lull us into complacency because I think these "conversions" are as flimsly as rice paper.

I would venture to guess that of all these conversions that 80-90% of them when it comes down to the zero hour are going to pull the lever for Bush. Whether because they can never see themselves voting for a dem or they just don't like Kerry or they've been completely hoodwinked, or whatever. And that 10% who won't are votes I'll be happy to have on our side. But still...

And if there is some kind of terror attack or terror warning before then, I'm pushing that number up to 100% and then some of people who are going to end up voting for Bush. It's real easy for them to be converted when things are going badly and they can blame Bush, but when it comes down to brass tacks it's still in the abstract. But these are the type of people who if they have been conservative or republican, who buy spin. They're not going to suddenly be enlightened and realize that a terror attack or a terror warning might be a political ploy, or that even if it wasn't that if the current leader can't protect them from it, that it's time to change leadership. They will easily fall for the "not changing in mid-stream" or keeping leadership during a time of war, or just general anti-Kerry spin.

I'm not saying the stories don't make us feel all warm and fuzzy but I don't believe for a minute that these conversions are going to stick. If I'm having to fight against the tide to convince my democratic, bush disliking friends and family not to be fooled by most of this crap, and fear mongering, and spin, I just don't believe that people that are naturally inclined in the other direction are going to somehow see above it.
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salinen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 09:10 AM
Response to Original message
1. That 10%
may be the difference.
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iconoclastic cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Uh, yeah, because 10% is millions of people!
Edited on Sat Jul-31-04 10:26 AM by iconoclastic cat
Even a 2% shift would lock in a win for Kerry, especially if the undecideds get off their asses and decide.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 09:13 AM
Response to Original message
2. There's a lot of anger against Bush out there
and the real rage is from his own party, from people who were lied to and bought the lies. Don't underestimate how betrayed they feel right now.

These may not translate into votes for Kerry when it comes right down to the final action in the voting booth. However, they will translate into votes against a third party candidate or not voting at all.

ABB still stands. As long as they don't cast a vote for Bush, we are ahead.
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iconoclastic cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. What evidence do you have for this claim?
I like the way it sounds, but can you back it up?
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jayavarman Donating Member (319 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. I can't prove anything, of course
but that describes about 7-8 people I know . . . . not that politically active, but voted for bush because he seemed like an amiable person & he said he would cut their taxes . . . . . fast forward to today- war, strange religious vibes, squelching of dissent while wrapping themselves in the flag, etc . . . these people are pissed!

They thought they were voting for Jerry Ford & got John Ashcroft etc . . .

Even my boss, who is a thinking man, but is also religiously conservative (7th day Adv.) was talking about voting for Kerry on friday- He was impressed by the 'on god's side' line. (even though he said that he would have to probably tell his parents he voted 4 bush!)
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. I can only offer anecdotal evidence
but some of the most enthusiastic Kerry supporters I know are former Bush supporters and veterans who feel betrayed.

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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
3. not so sure about that . . .
I really think people in general have had it with Bush and are looking for an alternative . . . they're just not sure about Kerry, particularly given all the shit that BushCo has piled on him . . .
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vi5 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 09:20 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. And again, in the abstract that may be true....and they may mean it.
But I think if there is even the slightest trace of fear mongering out there, let alone even a small attack between now and the election that they will switch back as quickly as you can say flip flop.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 09:28 AM
Response to Original message
5. Actually, I think it may be just the opposite.
I think a lot of people who identify themselves as a Republican, will, in the privacy of the voting booth, vote Kerry. They may never admit publicly to being a Democrat, but self-preservation is a powerful motivator....
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Redneck Socialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
8. I know two that are firmly converted
My parents, both life long pubs, wouldn't vote for bush this time around even if you put a gun to their heads.
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doni_georgia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
10. Here's some food for thought
I used to go to a Southern Baptist church south of metro Atlanta. If you're looking for a bastion of rock-solid Republicans, they're it. Or that's what I thought.

I ran into my erstwhile pastor and we discussed politics for a few mins. (he noiticed the big Kerry sticker on my bumper) and he let slip that quite a few of his flock have voiced concerns about our sitting president. Even if only 15% of that congregation votes Kerry, or stays home, instead of voting for the usurper, I will wager that that would be triple the number of people in that church who did likewise in 2000.

Moreover, it's a sign to me that some Christians, from all areas of the liberal-conservative spectrum, have finally awakened to the paradox between the claims and the reality of the usurper:


"Compassionate Conservatism" vs. "Don't kill me, don't kill me"

"Raising the level of debate" vs. lies, attacks and distortions about political opponents (John McCain, Joseph Wilson, John Kerry)

Massive distortions about WMD in Iraq

"Decisive leadership" vs. sitting on his ass for seven interminable minutes in a kindergarten classroom while people are dying in waves in the World Trade Center

Honoring and lifting up his spouse before the world by going on record with a description of his wife as "the lump in bed next to me" (Good Lord, we need a first lady with a spine!)

"Education President" vs. unfunded standards mandates and unfair assesment standards for schools and teachers

"Conservative values" vs. mortgaging a generation's future with appalling deficits

"Tax relief worked" vs. a jobless "recovery" (would you like fries with that?)



If this man is a genuine Christian, he sure could fool me. He acts like a damned Pharisee - or, more to the point, like a Roman governor. He lies, he oppresses the poor, he courts the rich, he wages war outside the law and under false pretenses, and he will stop at nothing to keep power. The son of a bitch is the spitting image of Herod, complete with a bevy of dead children in the Middle East.


If you want to understand a person, look at the people who surround him/her. Kerry's longtime friends and the men he served with have stepped up because they believe in the guy. The people closest to Bush are a tight and tight-lipped circle who say little and, I suspect, mean less. I watched Kerry greet the men who served with him on Thursday night. It was clear from their expressions that those men revere John Kerry. Is there anyone out there who reveres the usurper for anything he's done? Surely not his wife and kids. Apparently not his close friends and associates. No, people who revere Bush are people who know as little as possible about him. And aside from maybe Colin Powell, the same can be said about just about everyone in his administration, and about 99% of his political party, for that matter.

These are unadmirable people. No wonder our allies are unwilling to back us in anything. Kerry and Edwards are admirable. You may not like them, but they command respect in their very personae in a way that George Bush never, ever, ever will. No wonder he's so vicious. He can be made dictator for life and still be less than half of what these men are, and in his heart of hearts, he knows it. He'll go to his grave knowing it, and if the course of history changes, he'll know that WE know it too.

And you know what? I haven't much pity for that, because the man has had every opportunity in the world to be more. He could have turned himself around early - he could have done what Kerry did and volunteer for service - but he was too selfish, failing even to distinguish himself in Guard service. He could have made a new start at 40 when he quit the booze. Instead, he just turned into a bigger asshole. He could have used the incredible power and authority of his administration to transform this nation. Instead he let himself become the willing tool of the powerful and rich, and has played as an unwitting tool to the enemies of this nation (whose ranks have swelled as a result of his presidency).

In the heart of 90% of Republicans, this knowledge resides. Most won't face up to it, is all. A few have such hatred for anyone who disagrees with their narrow opinions that they will likely never see it. But most people who are likely to vote for this guy do so with the treacly feeling that they're letting a devil into their house. I've talked to too many of these folks to think otherwise. I see it in the faces and hear it in the inflections of their voices.

These folks may not wake up for this election but they are having very, very uneasy dreams.

Mac in Ga
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doni_georgia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
11. Article on Republican Crossovers
Funny... right after I posted "Food for Thought," this article appeared on Yahoo! News:


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=564&e=19&u=/nm/campaign_crossovers_dc


This is a worthwhile read, if only because it shows that the Bush base is starting to erode just a little... and he can't afford it to erode at all.

Mac in Ga
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
12. Stranger things have happened
I have a Kerry bumper sticker on my car. Believe me, that was as likely to happen as a freeper converting.

Julie
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marlakay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-31-04 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
13. Open your eyes!
Look I'm not real close to my brother, he has weird views and him and his wife have a lot of money, she is one of the top managers in SF for Levi. When I went to visit for first time in months I didn't even bring up politics because I didn't want to get into a fight. They are repubs. But my out spoken, very opinionated brother said, BUSH IS STUPID...ANYONE WHO VOTES FOR HIM IS STUPID...WE ARE VOTING FOR KERRY!!

That's not a warm and fuzzy story. My brother is NOT a warm and fuzzy guy. But smart people are waking up all over the country and not wanting to stand up for such a wimpy stupid guy!!
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