MSNBC: Convention bump 5 pts for Kerry, now leads Bush by 54% to 41%!

[flpoljunkie]

They are now tied on Iraq at 46%!

Who will win in November? Kerry 44%, Bush 43%

[WI_DEM]

1. 13-point lead

seems about right for after the convention. It will get reasonably even again after labor day.

[TheStateChief]

2. Actually, His Bump Was 7-points head-to-head

Last Newsweek poll had Kerry ahead of Bush head-to-head 51-45 (six-point lead) while, as you note above, he now leads by 13.

[lancdem]

7. Thanks for clarifying that

A 7-point bounce is about the average for a challenger. But the fact that Kerry was ahead of where Reagan and Clinton were going into their conventions in 1980 and 1992 and still got a nice bounce is very good news indeed.

[Frances]

3. Link?

[flpoljunkie]

6. NO, link. It was just on MSNBC TV. Am looking for one right now.

[lancdem]

4. A 13-point lead is cool, and a very pleasant surprise!

Especially since there was less network coverage this year of the convention.

BTW, isn't it more than a five-point bounce? I'm pretty sure he wasn't ahead by 8 before.

Do you have a link?

[OneBlueSky]

5. pretty soon, the bandwagon effect should set in . . .

when people on the fence start seeing numbers like these, they start getting the idea that it's okay to support Kerry . . .

[lancdem]

8. Also, that question of who will win

is kind of a lagging indicator. Even when Kerry was running no worse than even with Bush for months, more people still thought Bush would win. That fact that number is about even is major progress.

[Cocoa]

9. who will be the first whore to declare this a failure?

citing the predictions of a 15-point bump (GOP predictions, of course).

[lancdem]

10. I'm sure someone will

But to be honest, I didn't think Kerry would even get a double digit lead from the convention because I wasn't sure there were enough undecideds out there.

[ItsMyParty]

11. Now, ask yourself how many are going to watch Bush speak???

I have a feeling that Bush is not going to attract much more than the faithful watching the RNC. Why?? Because the people already know him and have heard his "same old, same old". They tuned into the DNC because they didn't know this dude, Kerry. Also the convention is at the end of August which is the last fling of summer and people don't want to be inside watching politicians and farmers are in their fields and in bed early in the summer. People will have been watching the Olympics and this will seem "blah" in comparison. Also, those who were sitting on the fence and heard Kerry and are going with him, really don't want to hear what Bush has to say. Then comes the debates. The media will try it's damnest to lower expectations for Bush and paint Kerry as arrogant and try like hell to get people to vote Bush. People may have fallen for "dumb" as cute in 2000; but this time, "dumb" is going to just plain look "dumb".

[Beetwasher]

12. You Are Indeed Correct!

People have already made up their minds about Bush, his convention will do little to nothing for him, not to mention how HATED he is NYC, so the convention could very well backfire, especially if they really whore out 9/11, which I expect they will...

Oh, and welcome to DU! Good post!

[fujiyama]

13. Bush got no bounces

from the last 9/11 anniversary (the second year) and his terrible state of the union address.

As I've said, Osama's the only thing that MIGHT save him now.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

14. Is he really leading by this much???

If so I say THANK YOU GOD for this!!!