POLL-Ohio Poll numbers modified (Kerry +6)

[TexasSissy]

No Republican since Lincoln has won a presidential election w/o carrying Ohio.

Ohio (20 E.V.)


Gallp 7/26/04..BUSH 45..KERRY 51 (Kerry +6)
ARG...7/23/04..BUSH 45..KERRY 47..NADER 3..UNDEC 5 (Kerry +2)
Zogby 7/23/04 48 47 undec. 1 (Bush +1)
Zogby 7/10/04 48 49 (Kerry +1)
Rasm. 7/9/04 46 42 undec 7 (Bush +4)
ARG 6/24/04 43 49 nader 2 undec 6 (Kerry +6)
Rasm. 6/2/04 46 42 (Bush +4)
ARG 5/13/04 42 49 (Kerry +7)
Gallup 5/1/04 51 46 (Bush +5)
Rasm. 3/16/04 41 45 undec 6 (Kerry +4)

This is GREAT news! Thanks to the posters who updated my prior numbers. I pay more attention to Ohio numbers and job approval ratings than the head to head, although I pay attention to those, also. But the Ohio numbers and job approval ratings seem to me to be particularly important for an incumbent Republican President. This is grrrrreat! :party:

[Fed Up]

1. Ohio is the skeleton key for this election, imo. This is good.

Frank Luntz' focus group in Cincinnati during the convention spelled doomsville for W. Cincy is deep down into Repuke territory.

[WI_DEM]

2. Ohio is among the first states on election night to report

If it goes to Kerry--we are in for a very good night--electorally.

[louis c]

3. We can win without Ohio

They can't.

And we will win Ohio.

Ohio, Fla., W.V, N.C., Mo., N.H., Va., Ark., all for Kerry.

Expect a landslide of historical proportions.

However, work like hell, because I won't be happy until we carry Texas.

[Redneck Socialist]

4. You're way more optimistic than I am.

Kerry will win but it won't be any kind of landslide.

Out of your list I see OH, WV, NC, MO, and VA all going for bush. On the other hand we'll get PA (that will make up for OH) and a bunch of the other swing states.

on edit: sloppy typing

[louis c]

12. You're missing the point

If the job numbers and the economy level off or slump, as I expect.

If the violence in Iraq does not subside, as I expect.

If fuel prices continue to soar, as I expect.

If the investigations into White House wrongdoing, like the Plame case, take out some mid-level Administration officials, as I expect.

There will be a Kerry-Edwards Landslide, as I expect.

[tedoll78]

5. Hmm..

I see Kerry winning PA definitely.
As for Ohio and Florida.. I'd bet that he wins only one of them; my money's on Ohio.

I also foresee Kerry picking-off West Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He'll force Bush to spend time defending Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Arkansas; he'll probably lose them, but forcing Bush to expend time and money in these states will help out tremendously.

Add all of the Gore states, and that's what Kerry will win with.

That's my prediction.. :P

[Redneck Socialist]

7. We need two out of these three, OH, FL, or PA

I don't know about WV or NV but I think we'll get AR.

Somewhere along the line we need to start an Electoral Vote pool. Whoever picks the right states and EV total wins. Wins what? Beats me, DU bragging rights I guess.

[tedoll78]

8. When I was in college in 2000,

my political science methodology professor had us turn-in a state-by-state electoral predictions paper. I picked every single state correctly but two..

I'd predicted that Gore would win New Hampshire, and
I'd predicted that Gore would win Florida.

Sounds pretty uneventful, right? Well, in the margin of the paper, I drew an arrow next to Florida and wrote next to it, "this will decide it all."

Very weird. I kinda freaked myself and the prof out a bit, lol.

[Redneck Socialist]

9. Damn you're good.

:toast:

I figured on Gore taking Tennessee. Shows what I know. :cry:

[tedoll78]

10. This year's gonna be tougher..

I just have this feeling about it.

[IndianaGreen]

6. Bush is toast!

Bush already lost the election and there is no way for him to recover, barring massive fraud or terrorist attack.

My political activism is now focused on voter registration. Polls don't mean shit if people don't show up to vote!

[Zo Zig]

11. FL is Kerry's

Gore lost FL by 537 voters, or 1 SCJ. This year FL will go Kerry.
PS- Gore won FL in 2000 by a larger margin, shame when they don't count the votes, all of them at least once.

[flpoljunkie]

13. Bush's job approval in latest Newsweek poll down to 45%.

One of his own top advisers postulated earlier this year that the President's vote percentage in November would be the same as his job approval rating. Interesting...I like the trend.

[Zynx]

14. Anywhere between 43 and 46 is what I want to see.

:-)