Updated Delegate Math: 267.5 - 271 SD and 1411.5 - 1573.5 PD

[Yael]

My Spreadsheet is here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pbbO5K4njsUv_hkAVN7dIIg

And this is updated as of today with the SOURCED information from: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project

(Lots of reported inaccuracies of SDs being tied to a candidate who are back to undecided in the NYT -- I trust Sourcewatch which is a project from DemConWatch that I assist with).

The front page needs to be edited on that site, which I will get to later today.

[thewiseguy]

1. Obama is getting closeeer

[JimGinPA]

2. Just More Sexist Math!

K&R

[KSinTX]

3. Your numbers look a bit low

Might want to scrub your numbers against DemConWatch's
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

They have a listing of all superdelegates with external sources, sort of "in the SD's own words," to back up the numbers. Sourcewatch seems a bit on the low side (DCW: C-270.5, O-270). Something tells me your source might not have the numbers outside the US (e.g., Democrats Abroad with their 1/2 votes, etc.)

Have fun tracking all of this :hi:

[Yael]

4. It was low -- it is 266.5 to 272

It is a constant update.

This uses the same source -- just breaks out the vote to see if the SDs agree. I will check his HRC numbers, but there have been a few switches in the last days that may not be reflected on DCW?

[KSinTX]

6. Payne (NJ) switched; Cumming (UT) this morning

DCW is a couple under the mainstream because they use a slightly tighter standard for inclusion. Some, for example, have added Pilar Lujan based on pre-election statements, but over there he has to restate it for the record to be sure it sticks. (Also, you need a .5 in there for the 1/2 Clinton advantage from DA. I think they counted them as full votes at Sourcewatch.)

[Yael]

8. This has Payne and Cumming and am not including Lujan yet

Am including Carter -- so I know that is off by one.

Still looking for the Clinton del that is missing on our side.

I have DA at 1.5 - 1 in Clinton's favor. Am I missing something there as well?

I feel like we are trading baseball cards. Superdelegate cards. :rofl:

[KSinTX]

9. OMG! This process is absolutely brutal

Trying to figure out the delegate math has me ready to check into some sort of political junkie rehab! :rofl:

But I think we found your problem: DA was 4.5 (O)- 2.5 (C) with 4 undecided (OK, 8 undecided people with a half vote apiece)!
Green Papers: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/DA-D.phtml

Take some time off and have a great weekend! Or you'll be joining me in that rehab :hi:

[Yael]

11. LOL!!

No kidding. I told the Congressapedia people that I would clean up the totals this weekend. What a nightmare!

I have everything in the s/s now, but DA doesn't match up for me.

I am only showing 1 (.5) undecided? http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Democrats_abroad_2008_presidential_primary_and_superdelegates

Do we know who the other 7 are?

[Yael]

12. FOUND IT!!

Damn Virgin Islands. It was marked as half, but they have 9 full delegates.

Now, I can die happy.

:D

[KSinTX]

13. CONGRATS! See how easy delegate math is?

9+15/3 + {square root of the hypotenuse of the pledged delegates} - {pi x superdelegates}squared = one heck of a FUN primary season!!

[Yael]

14. I am actually having fun now. I'm happy it is all caught back up!!

[mohc]

5. PD 1590.5 - 1426.5

Some issues with your spread sheet

Alaska 9-4
California 166-204
Colorado 36-19
Louisiana 33-23
North Carolina 66-49
Ohio 67-74
Texas 98-95

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-PU.phtml">The Green Papers

This page also has superdelegate counts that are sourced on Demconwatch, the same source as the page you posted, but they only update every day or so and are missing 1 superdelegate for each candidate as of this post.

[Yael]

7. Thank you! I just did Iowa this morning -- getting to cross checking the others

Appreciate it!!

I have SDs at 269.5 to 270. Looking to see what Clinton SD I am missing that DCW has.

[Yael]

10. Found some errors -- thank you again!

Colorado isn't known and the party isn't estimating: http://coloradoconfidential.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3570

Have fixed and re-sourced Alaska, Louisiana and NC.

Still trying to find a source on Texas and California.

[phrigndumass]

15. Nice, Yael! K/R

nice spreadsheet!

I didn't know about sourcewatch, so that's a new link for me, saving it.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[Yael]

16. Thanks! They started tracking whether supers were following the voter's in their endorsement

and it has gotten a LOT more indepth since then.

Today, I just added the 2008 Delegate Selection plans to the last 6 contests (click on the state on the map and then scroll down to the table -- it is linked with "Total Delegates" in the header. All but 1 are pdfs).