There's too much mistaken optimism

[Onlooker]

According to the 2004 census, there were:

http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf

126 million voters
100 million white
14 million black
8 million Hispanic

12 million 18-24 years old
18 million 25-34
25 million 35-44
26 million 45-54
44 million 55+

http://harrisdealerpoll.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=727

In 2006:

37% surveyed called themselves conservative
37% called themselves moderate
19% called themselves liberal

Obama can certainly beat McCain, but given the demographics of this country it's not likely that he will make major inroads in traditionally Republican states. I've seen threads where some have said that Obama can win states like Georgia and Kansas. I say no way he'll win those states. It will be hard enough for him to win Democratic states like Florida, where the elderly identify with McCain, and West Virginia, where Obama seems unusually unpopular. While he has strong support among blacks and young people, he is going to have to make serious inroads into other demographic groups.

I'm not knocking Obama, who I think is our strongest candidate, but I think we have to be realistic and recognize that Obama needs every advantage he can get, and that includes a strong endorsement from Hillary Clinton, from blue dog Democrats, and others who we may not like. It is going to be a tough election to win. Clinton's attacks on Obama will seem like childplay once the Republicans get going, and the Democratic Party is going to have to be unusually united in order to handle the onslaught of lies and distortions that the Republicans will hit Obama with.

I think many of us will agree that Obama is in the tradition of Gore and Kerry, a sort of liberal moderate who is highly educated, and well spoken. But, neither Gore nor Kerry won. Obama has a few advantages they don't -- the Republicans have made an a historic mess of things; Obama has put together an amazing grassroots campaign; and Obama is perhaps the greatest living orator. But, if we start with pipe dreams about him winning Kansas and Georgia, and refuse to compromise with more conservative parts of the Democratic Party, then I don't think the Democrats can beat McCain.

Looking at the above statistics, I think you can say that Obama has a lock on blacks (who represent about 10% of voters) and young people (who represent about 10% of voters). In addition, if we assume that half of liberals are black or young, then the remaining liberals (non- black and older) must represent about 10% of voters. That means Obama will do very well among 30% of the electorate. Given that, I think he'll have hard enough time putting together a winning electoral strategy, let alone going after states that simply do not vote for Democrats.

[Bicoastal]

1. I have not yet lost my respect for Hillary Clinton...

...but I will if she doesn't do her damnedest to reunite the party once this is all over. The onus will be on the loser, no matter what happens.

[LibDemAlways]

2. The media will be bending over backwards to portray

McCain in the most favorable way possible. He'll be touted as "independent-minded," "a maverick," and "a war hero." None of his numerous verbal gaffes will get any publicity. Criticism of him will be practically non-existent except on Olbermann.

Obama, meantime, will be under a microscope with numerous repuke operatives taking continuous verbal shots at him. The repukes won't run an overtly racist campaign, but there will be plenty of racist overtones. It will get ugly.

Given those demographics and based on voting patterns in the last two elections, I'm not overly optimistic about November. And I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[John Q. Citizen]

4. Hey Eeeyore. How's it going? You are always wrong. Get used to it.

[John Q. Citizen]

3. Did you predict Clinton wouldn't get the nomination 6 months ago? I'm just trying to get a

handle on how good your are at this predicting stuff.

By the way, Gore won. You might want to work on your hindsight 20/20 vision stuff before you try to tackle the future.

[Onlooker]

7. I supported Obama early on ...

... I supported Obama and thought he would win because he was a good candidate with a great campaign, and elections are about the campaign more than the candidate. (Otherwise, how the hell could an idiot like Bush get elected.) Gore lost. He should have won handily enough to make Republican corruption irrelevant. He should have at least won his home state of Tennessee.

[John Q. Citizen]

12. Gore won. He won Florida by thousands of votes. Votes that were caged. He also won the popular vote.

The only way an idiot like bush could obtain office is by stealing the office.

He didn't convince a majority of the electorate.

[uponit7771]

5. Any historical reference to site? Carter didn't have a majority of cons either

[Onlooker]

6. Carter lost to Reagan, though

I was a paid coordinator on the Carter campaign against Reagan. The reason Carter lost to Reagan was that the left rejected him when Carter moved towards the center. Many left wingers, so confident that no one in their right mind would support Reagan, voted for John Anderson or did not vote. As a left winger myself, I found this so frustrating because I knew the race would be close.

[Beregond2]

9. Carter lost

because of the "hostage crisis," which was not resolved in time thanks to Republican backdoor deals with Iran.

[unc70]

11. The Kennedy-wing did not unite behind Carter

The northern establishment Dems had never liked Carter and did not unite strongly in his support. At the same time, the Helms/Reagan Repubs were running their attacks on the excesses of the 1960's.

Seems like old times.

[Toucano]

10. The statistics don't support your theory

that Carter's move to the center caused the loss of the 1980 election.

26% of Democrats voted for Reagan, 6% for Anderson. If every single person who voted for Anderson (Republican, Democrat and Independent) had voted for Carter, Carter would have still lost.

Hence the term, "Reagan Democrats".

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. When Gore and Kerry ran, an (R) on one's ass didn't carry the same stigma it does today.

And, McCain's got a big one plastered on his crazy butt.