Those who trumpet Appalachia as the reason Obama is not electable are not being honest

[beachmom]

Obama will lose by a landslide in West Virginia and Kentucky. Just like he lost in Appalachian pockets in previous contests. The good people in Appalachia are not ready for him. But you know what? A good chunk of the rest of the country is. DHinMI has an excellent post up from the weekend, explaining the dynamics:

If doing well in Appalachia—which has only about 18-20 million of the almost 300 million people who live in America—were necessary for an Obama win, he would be in deep trouble. But there aren't enough people in Appalachia to present a big problem, especially since the region makes up a relatively small part of the population of most of the states it touches. ...

The two big exceptions, however, the two states in which Appalachia dominates, are Kentucky and West Virginia.

Based on the results of the primaries up to now, and for reasons suggested by Packer's interviews, we can see that Obama will not do well in West Virginia or Kentucky. And that's a problem for perceptions, because even if Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana, Clinton and her surrogates are likely to trumpet the West Virginia and Kentucky results as proof that Obama can't win white voters, and offer the results as a rationale for her to stay in the race.

If the discussion were limited to Appalachia, Clinton might have a point about the importance of her relative strength with white voters. But increasingly, in presidential elections, Democrats can't win Kentucky, and West Virginia is also trending strongly Republican. In 1992 Bill Clinton won Kentucky by 3 points, but against Bob Dole he barely hung on for a win of less than one point. Despite winning the popular vote, Al Gore—from neighboring Tennessee—lost Kentucky by 15 points, and Kerry lost it by 20. Frankly, Kentucky is not part of a map that shows a narrow Democratic win. If any Democrat were to win Kentucky, it would be part of a landslide win.

Even West Virginia, once one of the most Democratic states in the country—it voted for Dukakis and was one of the six states won by Jimmy Carter in 1980—is now moving in to Republican territory for Presidential years. It's not as Republican as Kentucky, but like Kentucky it's unlikely to go Democratic regardless of the Democratic nominee, even if it were Clinton.

I think it goes without saying that a region with a problem voting for "the black guy" is going to have a problem in the general election voting for a woman, when they are also given a choice of voting for a well known white man. I do hope that Appalachia changes its mind over time, and will consider a candidate other than a white male Republican. However, it is downright foolish to pretend that Hillary's victories in WV and KY point to her being a stronger candidate in the general. Someone else pointed out that Obama supporters should not hold up victories like Mississippi as holding any larger meaning for the G.E. -- I agree. On a similar note, Appalachia will not determine our next president.

[depakid]

1. Even Edwards -whose 2 Americas campaign was tailor made for those states

probably wouldn't swing the vote there by more than 4 or 5 percentage points.

[beachmom]

4. Yep. It is just the way the trends have gone. I wonder if even Bill Clinton could win there now,

especially without Perot, taking votes away from the Republican.

[theboss]

11. Edwards would be chased out of WV for being a sissy

Just sayin'.

[Clark2008]

14. No - it's because Edwards was seen as milquetoast

and a liar.

Obama stands a better chance.

[beachmom]

2. What a coincidence. DHinMI has a new post up (the one I linked to was actually from April):

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/12/134251/930/338/514258

This is really good stuff. Obama does not have a race problem overall.

What does this mean going forward? Well, first of all, there's no reason to expect that Obama will do well in West Virginia or Kentucky. The counties surrounding both states have gone overwhelmingly for Clinton, so it would be extraordinary if Clinton didn't post big wins in both states.

The other thing demonstrated by these maps is a strong regional distribution of white voters seemingly disinclined to vote for Obama. I'll try to address some of the reasons for this tendency in future posts. In the meantime, it would be great if pundits and politicos would recognize and acknowledge that race doesn't appear to have been much of a hindrance for Obama in the Democratic primaries, except, it appears, in Appalachia and in some regions where descendants of Appalachian migrants settled, such as the Ozarks, Oklahoma, and some isolated rural communities on the Plains. Obama doesn't appear to have much of a problem with white voters. But it seems quite likely Appalachia has a bit of an Obama problem.

[nichomachus]

3. We need to have a ban on trolls repeating the GOP lie

that Obama cannot win or that he will lose in November. This is uncalled for smearing of a Democratic candidate. We even had on knucklehead on here today saying that he/she would take pleasure and laugh at seeing the Democrats lose.

I consider anyone who uses that to be a troll.

[beachmom]

5. Sadly, the Clinton campaign would be deemed "trolls", too, since

that is precisely what they are telling superdelegates as we speak.

[xxqqqzme]

6. I doubt any Democratic presidential candidate

can win in WVA. The rabid, religious rong has a strangle hold on that state. Even deep in the hills, where our farm is located, there are religious rong signs all along the road. We were there 2 years ago to scatter my ex's ashes and I was disheartened by all the 'end times' crap every where. It wasn't like that when we lived there (early 70s to mid-late 80s).

[Champion Jack]

8. I counted at least 15 Obama signs when I went in to the feed store today

I'm in the western handle

[xxqqqzme]

13. I should have qualified that.

I'm guessing Morgantown, Charleston, & the few other populated pockets will embrace Obama's bid. I'm just saying, where we lived, in Webster County - center of the state - it has become so RW reactionary conservative, it really depressed me.

[SoCalDem]

7. FDR Dems are a dying breed.. their kids & grandkids groveled at the knee of reagan

and drank the "Me-me-mine-mine" koolaid.. They believed the God-will-save-you stuff and the black-people-took-all-the-jobs crap..

The old folks who loved FDR are mostly gone..until the ones who came after them wake up ..they will be poor red states

It's their call..

[Hawkowl]

9. Loses the "Deliverance Vote"

Once he becomes an incumbent though, he should be able to win these narrow minded areas quite easily.

[BlooInBloo]

10. Dammit! Why can't America be MORE bigoted!!!

:rofl:

[riskpeace]

12. Maybe Obama supporters could

put "Appalachia" on "Ignore."

[Clark2008]

15. I live in this region and I have a problem voting for war-mongering

white guys.

BTW, Appalachia sided with the Union during the Civil War. "Hillbillies" thought it was downright unGodly to own slaves. Appalachia does NOT constitute all of a state - it's the eastern part of Tennessee and the western part of NC, for example; therefore, the hillbillies were outvoted during cessession.

[beachmom]

16. Well, according to Josh Marshall they were anti-slavery AND anti-slave.