Obama now has a 177 delegate lead. After tonight's primary there'll be only 189 delegates remaining

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

to be pledged from the primaries which have yet to be conducted.

Obama is just 12 delegates (super or pledged or any combination) from hitting the "Pelosi number" which will trigger an avalanche of super delegates who have said that they are awaiting for one candidate's lead to exceed the number of remaining voter-selected delegates before they will pledge to the presumptive nominee.

According to CNN's delegate calculator (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/), Obama gets 12 delegates out of West Virginia even if Hillary wins by 16%.

If Obama picks up just two more super delegates today, then he needs only 10 delegates out of West Virginia to meet the "Pelosi number," and Obama gets 10 delegates out of West Virginia even if Hillary beats him by 28%.

West Virginia will probably put Obama over the top!

[book_worm]

1. he is 33 away among pledged delegates which is the Pelosi formula

I think WVA has 28 delegates? I can see him winning 10 in WVA and then going over the top among pledged next week with what he gets from KY and OR.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

3. Obama is 33 pledged delegates away from reaching the "Pelosi number" with pledged delegates alone,

but Obama's rapid accumulation of super delegates will allow him to reach the "Pelosi number" with just 12 more delegates. Some of the members of the "Pelosi Club" have said that they will consider the target met when the frontrunner's lead is bigger than the total number of unpledged voter-selected delegates remaining from the states and territories which have not conducted their primaries yet.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. I think it's 31.

Apparently a PLEDGED delegate just switched.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

6. It is odd for a pledged delegate to switch, but the delegates must reflect the preferences of those

who elected them, and if the delegates were elected by a slim margin of people who supported Hillary back when she still had a chance and if a consensus of those same voters now wants to support Obama in the spirit of party unity, I suppose that the rules would allow that switch. Still, it seems weird for a pledged delegate to flip before the actual convention.

[Independent-Voter]

2. Don't confuse HRC's supporters with that numbers and reality mumbo-jumbo!

[mohc]

5. You're forgetting that his delegate lead will slip when he loses WV

Obama will most likely lose by either 8 or 10 delegatesin WV, dropping his pledged delegate lead to 158 or 156 (I am including the pledged switcher from today). With no more superdelegate endorsements, Obama's SD lead is current 12.5, for a total lead between 170.5 and 168.5.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

8. The size of Obama's lead may shrink after Hillary nets more delegates from West Virginia, but Obama

won't lose any of the pledged delegates or super delegates who have already committed to him.

Leaving aside the extremely remote possibility of future delegate flip flops (which have all gone Obama's way -- none have flipped from Obama to Clinton and none is likely to at this point), Obama's current delegate count will not shrink and will only grow (the size of his lead may shrink -- as it probably will tonight -- put the total number of committed delegates will only grow).

The amount of pledged delegates who have not yet committed because their states and territories have not yet had their primaries is also a set number which will only shrink as more and more states and Puerto Rico have their primaries.

The fact that Hillary will bite into the overall size of Obama's lead will not affect either the ever growing total accumulated number of Obama delegates (unless someone flip flops to Hillary which hasn't happened even once so far this election and is extremely unlikely to happen at this stage) or the ever shrinking number of remaining voter-selected delegates from the primaries yet to be conducted.

As the growing number of Obama's committed delegates grows and the number of as-yet-uncomitted pledged delegates shrinks, the first number will eventually exceed the second number. That will probably happen tonight (and if not tonight, this week for certain).

[mohc]

9. I was in no way saying otherwise

I was only countering that the number will not be 12, but closer to 20 thanks to the net 8 delegates Clinton will get from the WV primary. So the question is, does Obama get 20 delegates between now and next Tuesday. Because regardless of the number of delegates Obama picks up in the next week, he will cross the 1627 pledged delegate mark next Tuesday thanks in large part to Oregon. At that point there will be 86 pledged delegates left and his pledged delegate lead will be around 160.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

10. You're measuring Obama's delegates vs. Clinton's delegates. That's not the measure. It's Obama's

delegates vs. the remaining unpledged voter-selected delegates.

[mohc]

11. That's just not how it works

In your OP you stated that Obama's current lead is 177 and there will be 189 remaining pledged delegates after tonight, this was basically correct (he actually leads by 178.5). Based on this you said he would be 12 delegates shy of having a lead too large for Clinton to overcome with pledged delegates alone. That would be correct if WV split evenly. At the end of tonight I expect Clinton to net 10 delegates from WV, splitting the delegates 19-9 with Obama. This will mean with 189 delegates remaining, he will have a lead of 167 (again it would really be 168.5). So with 189 remaining pledged delegates Obama will be ahead about 167. If he were to pick up 22 SDs more than Clinton does in the next week, he will then lead by 189, meaning Clinton would have to win 100% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie. Obama has been getting 4+ SDs on most days, so in all likelihood he will cross this threshold before OR and KY, but its not guaranteed.

[Imagevision]

7. Even James Carville stated that he though t it looks like Obama will be getting the nomination

[peoli]

12. I like dem odds