Psst! We Like You Better Now

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

http://www.alternet.org/election04/19463/

The public responded well to John Kerry's speech at the Democratic convention – even if the press didn't say so.

There's been much discussion of the fact that John Kerry didn't receive a significant "bounce" in the polls coming out of his convention. The consensus explanation is that since most people have already made up their minds, Kerry didn't have many people to persuade. Much of the traditional convention bounce comes from voters in the nominee's own party who finally get an extended look at him and in effect "come home" to where they're going to wind up eventually anyway. Since nearly all Democrats have already decided they're voting for Kerry (approaching 90%), and he already leads Bush among Independents by a substantial margin, there just wasn't anywhere to bounce to.

Nonetheless, most polls showed some modest gains. The ABC News/Washington Post poll, Newsweek poll, and CBS News/New York Times poll all showed Kerry picking up a few points, between 2 and 8.

The exception was the Gallup poll, which actually showed Bush gaining a few points on Kerry coming out of the Democratic convention. But here's a basic fact about survey sampling: Every survey is an extrapolation from a small number of people to a larger population; sometimes you're right, and sometimes you're off, even if your methodology is perfect. When four polls are taken at the same time, and three show the same results but one has something completely different, it's the lone outlier that's probably mistaken.

Interesting analysis of the polls demonstrating the double digit jump Kerry got in most instances in issues where he was poorly defined prior to the convention[/i/

[Skinner]

1. I thought this was a great read.

Here's a kick.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

2. I guess it's not flamey enough

we'll just keep kicking it

[Capn Sunshine]

7. I'm sorry, did you just put out a call?

:evilgrin: My phone was off the hook. How about this: it's too late to belabor this point.

Just trying to help because I love you

[mountebank]

3. Bush's mantra: STRONG and TERROR.

The only areas where he's still really leading. The DNC did well to obsessively focus on these areas, really chipping at his lead. And where Bush is running away with it: "Says something and sticks to it." I probably would have favored Bush in that category - but I consider it a liability! Maybe some of the responders did too.

Of course, this was all too technical for the news networks who, after all, were too busy finding ways to make the convention seem boring, scripted, and pointless.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

4. kick dammit..this is a great analysis of Kerry's gains from the convention

[cally]

5. Another kick

Good analysis.

I'm confident we're winning BTW.

[hippiegranny]

6. the reason it wasn't a "bounce"

is that what what bounces, falls. bushler will get a bounce. kerry is steady on the rise.

[Capn Sunshine]

8. This IS a good read

:kick:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

9. told you so

nyah nyah nyah.... ;-)