ARG Has Kerrey at 50% in Florida!!!!

[Perky]

www.americanresearchgroup.com
woohoo!

"fatlady is not warming up yet...but she is in the building"

[cthrumatrix]

1. the fatlady is wearing a "Kerry/Edwards" t-shirt & pin ....good news

[DaveinMD]

5. this isn't

anywhere near over. Let's not get complacent folks.

[Perky]

8. Not Nearly over!

I agree... The interesting thing in the numbers is That Kerry took from Nader Bushe and the undecideds.

[ronnykmarshall]

2. Sing it, girl!

[BlueEyedSon]

3. too bad about the no-recount BBV machines....

[Perky]

4. The numbers

Florida
Likely Voters
Aug 5 Jul 15 Jun 23 May 19 Apr 21 Mar 4

Bush 43% 44% 46% 47% 46% 44%
Kerry 50% 47% 47% 46% 45% 45%
Nader 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Undecided 5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 7%
600 likely voters, August 3-5,
MOE ± 4 percentage points

[VolcanoJen]

6. Holy Crap!!! Kerry up by SEVEN POINTS in Florida!

Fire up the voter purge, Jebbie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. ARG Was All Over The Place In 00

But who cares so was Gallup.....


Will the media flog the story that Bush is substantially behind in a must win state the way they flogged the no bounce Gallup poll


Don't hold your breath....

[VolcanoJen]

9. Well, the individual state polls seem to debunk the "Baby Bounce" myth.

:D

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I'm Not Really Hung Up About The Bounce...

If you add up all the horse race polls Kerry's winning by three or four points and that's enough for me...

what does :D mean?

[VolcanoJen]

19. Oh, that?

(Putting on Dubya Halloween Mask)

"That? :D That's a smiley-face. It means, well, it smiles. It means it's smiling. It's a face, and it's a happy one, a smiling one. That's what it is. A smiley-face."

I'm not hung up about the "bounce" either, DemocratSinceBirth. Hence, the smiley. :D

[Doosh]

21. seems like it was a delayed bounce

voters took some time to digest the message, decided they liked it. Advantage Kerry.

[Perky]

10. Internals are interesting.

In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Florida likely voters Aug 5 Jul 15 Jun 23 May 19 Apr 21 Mar 4

George W. Bush 43% 44% 46% 47% 46% 44%
John Kerry 50% 47% 47% 46% 45% 45%
Ralph Nader 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Undecided 5% 6% 5% 4% 6% 7%

While Bush leads Kerry 49% to 43% among white voters (72% of the sample) and 46% to 42% among Hispanic voters (15% of the sample), <b>Kerry leads Bush 87% to 9% among black voters (13% of the sample) which gives Kerry the overall lead.</b>

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. An Interesting Artifact About Election 00 In FL

13% of Floridians are African Americans but they represented sixteen percent of the voters in Florida in 00...


African Americans actually voted greater than their numbers in 00... I hope 04 is a repeat....

[DaveinMD]

15. I can take some credit for that

I designed the direct mail for the NAACP National Voter Fund. This was the Renee Mullins/Hate Crime piece that infuriated the Republicans. Others are doing similar things this year.

[tedoll78]

26. In that case..

big ups to you. That's a service to one's country! :)

[KharmaTrain]

12. Careful...Gore Had An Outside MOE Lead, Too...

While I'm very encouraged, yes, no time to get complacent and I sense the Florida vote will be a pleasant surprise for us on Nov. 2...Jebbie or no Jebbie.

Let's hope we don't need Florida to seal the deal here. I'm more concerned with what's going on in Ohio, Missouri, Arizona and West Virginia. We get one or two of those and Florida can go hang.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Gore Didn't Have An Outside The MOE Lead In FL

in the final Florida polls....


It was pretty much a pickem....

[KharmaTrain]

16. Nope...But We Never Did Get A Real Count On That Poll...

I'm refering to in August/September, 2000...Gore's bounce out of the convention put him briefly up 7 or 8 in Florida. I remember some of the pundits reading Jebbie obit...saying if Florida fell it'd ruin all the Bushies. How prophetic, eh???

[DaveinMD]

17. most polls

had Gore behind by one or two points leading up to the Election. They undercounted the African American vote.

[KharmaTrain]

18. Yes, Dave...In The Final Polls.

Again I'm talking about the post-convention polls...almost where we are right now in the cycle. My point was not to think that any polls that show Kerry with a lead now in Florida will be there in November...I think we can all bank on that one.

[Nicholas_J]

20. I live in the most conservative city in Florida

And I am shocked to see the number of Kerry/Edwards signs and stickers that I have since the convention. In the past, people were very intimidated into not doing so, as cars with stickers for any Dem would be keyed, and houses with signs for democratic candidates would get their windows broken. I am seeing Kerry/Edwards stickers on signs everywhere, and even the cop who live in my complex has a Kerry/Edwards sticker on his SUV. 7 points is the biggest lead Kerry has had in Florida so far, and his lead in a number of other states is getting much better as well:

PA: Kerry 48, Bush 43, Nader 2

FL: 2 New Polls - Kerry +7, Bush +1

MI: Kerry 52, Bush 41

NH: Kerry 49, Bush 42, Nader 2

AR: Bush 46, Kerry 46

NM: Kerry 50, Bush 43, Badnarik 5

CA: Kerry 51, Bush 40, Nader 2

NJ: Kerry 49, Bush 36, Nader 6

OH: Bush 49, Kerry 44, Nader 2

Kerry's leads are now in double digits in many of these battleground states.

[Perky]

22. Ummm how about some links

PA: Kerry 48, Bush 43, Nader 2 ???

FL: 2 New Polls - Kerry +7, Bush +1 ??? What is the other one???

MI: Kerry 52, Bush 41 Really?

NH: Kerry 49, Bush 42, Nader 2

AR: Bush 46, Kerry 46

NM: Kerry 50, Bush 43, Badnarik 5

CA: Kerry 51, Bush 40, Nader 2

NJ: Kerry 49, Bush 36, Nader 6

OH: Bush 49, Kerry 44, Nader 2 Really???

[Anaxamander]

24. What city is that Nicholas? (nt)

[MikeG]

23. As Dean would say: On to the White House. AAAAARRRRGGGG!!!

[Perky]

25. Wrong....it's AAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEHHHHEAAAIIIIY>

Sheesh get it right would ya? LOL