Obama is around 30-50 superdelegates from clinching the nomination

[Renew Deal]

Obama has 1599.5 pledged delegates and 285.5 supers totalling 1885 delegates. So...

1885 Current Obama Delegates
18 Kentucky (36%)
29 Oregon (55%)
20 Puerto Rico (37%)
9 Montana (55%)
8 South Dakota (55%)
1996 Total

2025-1996=29

That means that Obama is somewhere between 30-50 supers from locking this up.

[Yael]

1. If he took 8 last night

Add in 2 for Ohio, add in the 1 that defected in DC yesterday, and he went into the day with 1592.5 that is 1603.5 and he only needs 1627 to lock up the Pelosi club of 9 -- so that is 24 more pledged, which I agree will be had in Oregon.

That makes 20 more that need to decide based on your analysis. At the rate of 4 a day, we may have that by next Tuesday...

:woohoo:

[Boz]

2. May 20th, Oregon, Obama, Magic Number, Democratic Nominee.... and the # 19

It is actually 19 supers if you take into consideration the current speed that they have been coming in since SuperTuesday.

[paulk]

3. Howard Dean has said that FL and MI will be seated

Perhaps it will not be for the full delegate count, but the 2025 number is not accurate, according to the chairman of the DNC.

[Renew Deal]

4. It will be seated after Obama is the nominee

By then, it will be over.

[paulk]

7. the rules committee meets on the 31st

I'm sure Obama will claim victory before then, but it's not his victory to claim.

[Renew Deal]

8. It's his victory.

Here's a little secret. Obama hits the Pelosi club number next Tuesday and the delegate flood will become a tsunami. May 31 is going to hit and it's going to be irrelevant. Keep in mind that Obama supporters are excited about May 31 too.

[Texas Hill Country]

12. that is the DUMBEST thing they could possibly do... it WILL tear the party in two.

[Aloha Spirit]

5. If Obama averages about 6 SD's a day, he will reach 2025 before the RBC decision.

[thewiseguy]

6. The 2025 number will not be changed when the race is still on

You cant just change the numbers when the race is taking place. Yes those delegates will be seated but at the convention.

[Renew Deal]

9. Since the Edwards endorsement, Obama has picked up 4 pledged delegates

And 4 supers. Obama is within 22-42 now.

[WeDidIt]

10. Correction, as of right this moment, he has 1607.5 Pledged delegates

HE's picked up 7 Edwards delegates total.

[Texas Hill Country]

11. if he hits 2025 and claims the nomination before MI & FL are settled, it will rip the party apart.

[book_worm]

13. And in the end FL and MI will be seated with a compromise giving half of MI to Hill and half to Obam

and possibly 10 more to Hill in FL--so it won't change a thing in the end.