Don't forget, after the first round of voting at the convention, all delegates are freed up!

[2rth2pwr]

If neither Obama or Clinton win the magic number of delegates in the first ballot, all delegates are freed from any obligations to represent either candidate.

Also the delegate population reflects each state's ethnic distribution; and at least 50% of the delegates must be women.

Hillary has no reason to stop before the convention, and now that the delegates see how Obama treats states like W. VA, (barely even showed up, left the state without a

word- no concession speech, no speech reaching out to the voters there) many will be looking to the person who does not give up on the American people,

Hillary Clinton.

The contrast that the delegates will see at the convention will be stark, Obama and his above it all aloofness vs Hillary's unflappable dedication to give voice to the

forgotten people of this country. I for one, can't wait.

[anonymous171]

1. That's great. B/C a lot of Hillary's pledged delegates want to support Obama.

[Flying Dream Blues]

3. Touche'. nt

[JFN1]

55. And let's not forget

what a 'quitter' Obama is. Why, he's quit just about everything he's ever tried!! He's not a fighter, no not him. So since Hillary is obviously the ONLY fighter in American politics today, she is the logical choice. :puke:

[Window]

68. Talk about having buyer's remorse.

[MNDemNY]

2. Gore/Edwards 08.

[elocs]

4. There won't be anything other than a first round. Obama.

[slick8790]

5. It's rich to hear outrage that Obama neglected a state from a supporter of Sen. Big-states-only n/t

[2rth2pwr]

8. She has campaigned her ass off in all the states.

[slick8790]

9. Uh huh. Right. n/t

[cali]

11. bwhahahaha. Sure she has.

[Occam Bandage]

24. You must have forgotten those 14 in a row after Super Tuesday that she forgot about.

You know, the ones she didn't bother with, because "this will be settled Feb 5," remember?

[lojasmo]

6. First round=Obama. EOM

[WA98070]

7. Hillary says they're all free now. So switch to a winner, switch to OBAMA!!!!

[cali]

10. It's utterly ridiculous to think this will go until the convention. It won't.

SDs will put Obama over the top before the first day of summer. Hill doesn't have the resources to continue another month, let alone until the end of August. The SDs have no use for hillary. They've made that clear in the wave of endorsements that they've sent to Obama. They aren't going to change their minds.

Everyone knows it's over but dedicated Hillfans.

[2rth2pwr]

13. That's funny. The majority of Obamafans were yelling last month that it was all over.

[Labors of Hercules]

27. That would be because, basically...

It was over. We have faith that the process will run a fair and reasonable course. The only way it won't is through lies, manipulation and coercion. In short, we have faith in Democrats to do the right thing and in our party to uphold the rules, which means Obama is our nominee.

[2rth2pwr]

38. Lies, manipulation, and coercion? How about the rules that already are in place.

[Labors of Hercules]

52. You mean the rules Obama has followed to the letter in GOOD FAITH?

The ones that the state parties in Fl and Mi broke and now Hillary is trying to change?
You mean those rules?

The ones that Hillary and Terry constantly throw smoke and mirrors in front of so people are duped into believing they are different from what they are?
You mean THOSE rules?

The rules governing the Democratic primary election of the nominee for President of the United States. Those are the rules you are talking about, right?

The rules that Hillary's campaign has been shitting on since she realized Obama was going to win if they continued to be followed. :grr:

[2rth2pwr]

57. MI and FL will be seated, no one disagrees with that. The only thing left to work out is

the apportionment of the delegates.

[Hawkeye-X]

71. Hillary rejected the MI deal

So the the best she'll get is 50/50 - and still not enough either. RBC will be ruling the same thing.

[RaleighNCDUer]

30. It was then, and still is, now.

His lead has only gotten bigger since a month ago.

[cali]

34. That's because it's essentially been over since Wisconsin.

She's done. For goodness sake, it's time to accept it.

[NeedleCast]

43. It was over last month

Your failure to come to terms with that does not make it false.

[2rth2pwr]

46. If it's over, why are you posting in the primaries forum?

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. Hate to do this AGAIN but this is is the POLITICS forum

has been for ever

I know you're new

The renaming means nothing to OLD DU'uers who have been round these parts a tad longer than you have

The transition back from silly season to POLITICS will happen soon. Maybe then it will finally sink for you

By the way if this goes to Denver, given HISTORY... it will be a mistake.

Oh never mind math and history is not your strong point

[2rth2pwr]

63. Right now it's the primaries forum, it will switch to the politics forum when the primaries are over

You are certainly stubborn in the face of plain facts.

[onenote]

73. because some people need to be told over and over that its over

Get thee to the mirror.

[JackORoses]

49. It was. Hillary put you through all this for nothing.

[XemaSab]

12. Interesting that half the delegates must be women

It'll really sting for her to get her ass handed to her in person from people she thought were her base. :P

[2rth2pwr]

15. Some of those women are required right now to vote for Obama against their will,

after the initial vote they will be free to vote for Hillary.

[dionysus]

20. i think i get it now.... you're doing a bit right? this is satire?

[MaineDem]

25. HOLD ON A MINUTE...Against their will?

I don't think so. People run for delegate positions based on presidential preference. And candidates have the right to refuse delegates who aren't committed to the, from the states.

Where do you see delegates being forced against their will to vote for either candidate?

[2rth2pwr]

35. Many of those delegates expressed support before the Rev Wright stuff came out.

[anonymous171]

37. The only people who really care about Wright are Hillary's rabid supporters and repugs.

[XemaSab]

32. Those poor women... held hostage to the big scary black man

:cry:

[XemaSab]

33. Those poor women... held hostage to the big scary black man

:cry:

[mohc]

36. In most states they are already free to change their vote

There is nothing magical about the second ballot that means pledged delegates can change, thats simply a common practice. Once a state's right of review period has passed the campaigns have no recourse for pledged delegates that change their minds. But all this ignores the fact that the pledged delegates are hand selected by the campaigns. Unless the Obama campaign or Clinton campaign did a really bad job vetting the pledged delegates we are going to see very few switchers, even after multiple ballots. Only "kool-aid drinkers" to put it DU lexicon were allowed to stand as pledged delegates. Basically, pledged delegates do not vote a certain way because they are forced to by their pledge, they vote a certain way because the campaigns make sure only ultra loyal "to the end of the Earth" supporters are allowed to be their pledged delegates.

[2rth2pwr]

40. It won't take many.

[mohc]

45. What's your definition of "many"

Obama has 1600 pledged delegates and 285 superdelegates as of now. He is most likely going to win at least 90 pledged delegates in the remaining contests. That leaves him 50 delegates shy of 2025. Maybe the endorsements will trail off at some point, but it has not shown any signs of doing so yet. Of the remaining 240 or so superdelegates it is quite likely that Obama will take at least 2/3 or them, 160 or so, in the next 6-7 weeks. I could see maybe 10-20 switchers, but nowhere near the 100+ needed to put Obama under 2025.

[2rth2pwr]

48. 2209.

[Orangepeel]

53. do you have any idea how pledged delegates are selected?

They aren't random people. They are dedicated supporters of the person to whom they are pledged. It is no more likely that they will switch than it is that electoral college supporters will switch in the GE.

[2rth2pwr]

58. Many of Obama's supporters pledged before Wright made his entrance.

[Orangepeel]

77. Obama's pledged delegates are even more rabid supporters than his supporters at DU

just like Clinton's supporters are.

They ain't switching.

[Why Syzygy]

61. Against their will? No one is foricng them to be delegates.

But why should we be surprised that Hillary supporters want to play their own game just as she does.

[countingbluecars]

14. They are already uniting around

the winner. Why would they switch to Hillary at the convention?

[2rth2pwr]

17. Not the super's, the pledged delegates.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

22. Ok. So we've gone to "pledged delegates are important!" to "the supers will save us!" to pledged

delegates again?

[countingbluecars]

28. The ones that represent the will of the voters?

[nadinbrzezinski]

62. Forgive me but WHO is leading right now in the SD count?

If you bother to look this up, you will find it is NOT HRC... she was, a week ago.

[Marie26]

16. Ugh, that's a nightmare

I really hope it doesn't come to that. There's some weird 2008/1968 parallels here that could lead to another chaotic convention.

[haymakeragain]

18. It's really shameless, your sense of entitlement.

She's not entitled to the nomination. Obama earned it the hard way, let him get some rest for November for fuck's sake, she can't win and won't have the backing to steal it.

Time for the Clinton's to bow out stage right.

[dionysus]

19. huffing glue is bad, hmmmkay?

[2rth2pwr]

21. David Axelrod in High School.

[dionysus]

31. ...

[Occam Bandage]

23. Hillary's last, most laughable argument for viability yet:

"All the delegates could totally ignore the primaries, caucuses, and their prior declarations, and vote for Hillary!"

Well, yeah. By that logic, Ron Paul is still a viable contender for the Republican nomination.

[anonymous171]

29. Isn't Paul plotting a revolt at the GOP convention?

That ought to be fun to watch.

[Exilednight]

26. There's only going to be one round. The split would have to be less than ........

19 delegates apart to require a second vote, and that will not happen.

[Bill McBlueState]

54. what's the significance of 19?

Is that how many pledged delegates Edwards has?

[Exilednight]

69. Yep. n/t

[2rth2pwr]

59. Somebody has to hit 2209 for it to end.

[Exilednight]

70. 2025 is the number set by rules and bylaws. n/t

[2rth2pwr]

74. Only if the millions of voices in FL and MI are squashed.

[Hawkeye-X]

75. Once again, that's if FL and MI are seated

Which currently they aren't - the magic number remains 2025.

If they are both seated (which I'm pretty sure they will), it'll be 2209 after MAY 31st, not before. And Obama still secures the nomination regardless of FL/MI.

Hawkeye-X

[suston96]

39. And one never knows what can happen between now in May and then in August ..... nt

[book_worm]

41. It's not going to the convention if it does go that far then neither would win the election

the party would be too broken and Obama nor Hillary would win. That would be Hillary's legacy.

[2rth2pwr]

64. That's another example of the Obma supporters threatening Hillary that she better get out, or else.

[onenote]

76. the entire premise of your post is based on a threat by HRC supporters v. Obama

Your entire premise is that voters who would support HRC will abandon the Democratic party and stay home or vote for McCain, costing Obama the election.

Or am I missing something.

[SeaLyons]

42. K&R

[tekisui]

44. With only two on the ballot. It will be over in one round.

It would have to be within Edwards' 19 difference to cause a second round.

It ain't gonna happen. Keep dreaming.

[2rth2pwr]

47. You have read the wrong rulebook.

[tekisui]

50. It would require that or for delegates to sit out.

Which I don't see happening.

One vote.

[Renew Deal]

51. You guys are nuts

:crazy:

[Bill McBlueState]

56. Just because you can come up with a way for your candidate to win...

Doesn't mean it's in anyone's best interest for her to pursue that course.

[2rth2pwr]

66. It may not be in your or Obama's best interest, but it would be in the country's best interest.

[crimsonblue]

65. shit... looks like you found the final resting place for the goalposts--

total party destruction. That is the only result of a floor fight at the convention. IF you want to see thousands of more americans die in Iraq (the draft will only become a more realistic possibility), then go ahead and take it to the floor. No Democratic Candidate has won a modern election when the party went to the convention non-unified.

[harun]

67. If this goes all the way to the convention be prepared to say hello President McCain (n/t)

[gcomeau]

72. You can't really actually think...

...that it's going past round one. There's no chance, you realize that right?

[gbrenna]

78. Do you really think

it would be possible to win the general election after a political stunt like that? Please try to remember this is a primary race between two Democrats who have similar policies...lets not give McCain the election.

[crankychatter]

79. any SD not committed by 6-10-08 should be drawn and quartered

this will BE OVER

OVER by then...

unless the SD's don't mind losing in November... then I'd have to question their loyalties...

[scheming daemons]

80. You're right. The SDs flooded to Clinton today....

oh... wait.

[Gore1FL]

81. I thought it was 4th vote

and he'll have eough to win on the first ballot.