by Shaun Appleby, Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:51:03 PM EST
A candidate supporter diary for MyDD
Fundraising is an essential, and early, component of any successful campaign. In Senator Obama's case, an unexpected and relatively late decision to run against an established and well resourced opponent, it formed a vital part of his campaign strategy. From the beginning, he was confidently able to tap a large pool of institutional donors in his native Illinois, but his first major coup was to acquire not only key staff but the bulk of the existing, and substantial, donor base of Senator John Kerry, who declined to run:
Kerry's loss has primarily been Obama's gain. The newcomer has secured commitments from 27 of the 41 former Kerry backers who have thus far declared allegiance to a new candidate, says a Kerry fund-raiser who is not aligned with either Clinton or Obama. Clinton has nabbed the other 14. None of the backers has yet joined any of the other Democratic hopefuls. "Senator Kerry told people that they ought to follow their own conscience," says Jay Dunn, national finance director for Kerry's political action committee.
Pinning down fund-raisers early is one sign of a campaign's viability. Obama's success has surprised some, given his relative inexperience and Clinton's deep ties to the Democratic Party.
Cranking Up The Money Machine Business Week 12 Feb 07
But that was just clever tactics, and an indication that Obama had put together a professional and experienced campaign team. The next move was strategic and implied a cleaner, more process-oriented political philosophy which resonated with voters:
Obama opens his presidential fund-raising drive with a laudable self-imposed ban on accepting money from federal lobbyists, political action committees, registered foreign agents and youths under the age of 16. A common scam for rich donors is to get around federal giving limits by writing checks in the names of their kids -- students or tots who are being used by their parents.
Lynn Sweet -
Obama begins fund-raising drive Chicago Sun-Times 1 Feb 07
Herein lay the seed of one of the process messages which both Obama and Edwards would use to distance themselves from the traditional 'top down' fundraising planned by Hillary. This was followed up with a surprisingly successful fundraising campaign in direct competition to Hillary in California and even her native New York. An early investment was the infrastructure for the kind of grass-roots fundraising machine which Howard Dean had pioneered in 2004, leveraging the Internet and his populist appeal and doubling Hillary in the first quarter for number of contributors. This made important early news for his campaign and set the narrative of a populist candidacy as distinct from Hillary's institutional support:
Remember Kerry held the online fundraising records, and Obama's $55 million in Feb beat Kerry's $44 million record. Hillary has yet to break $40 million.
When Kerry endorsed Obama, Hillary's campaign appeared caught off guard. Then Kerry got to work:
Despite his recent political struggles, Kerry still commands a formidable organization as the Democratic Party’s last presidential nominee and gives Obama a leg up among party activists and financiers.
Since announcing his endorsement last month, Kerry has kept a frenetic pace, campaigning in nine states and contributing to the campaign in a slew of other ways, including:
Sending 25 million e-mails to raise support for Obama, including seven messages to each of the 3 million members of johnkerry.com, his online political community
Raising $400,000 online for Obama since his endorsement
Making 47 appearances on national and local television and radio programs to speak on Obama’s behalf
Making 10 trips to campaign for Obama in critical primary states stretching from Massachusetts to California to Texas
Making 60 phone calls to urge key superdelegates to support Obama’s campaign
Kerry, who introduced Obama to the nation by giving him a key speaking role at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, sought to downplay his role in his colleague’s success. But he also noted that key members of his 2004 campaign are deeply involved in the nomination contest.
Among those working for Obama are several of Kerry’s campaign activists in California and his former Florida finance chairman, Kirk Wagar, who raised heaps of money in 2004 and is performing the same role for Obama this year. Also on the Illinois senator’s team is Alan Solomont, Kerry’s Massachusetts finance chairman, who has raised millions in 2008.
link*** Those 18 delegates: Edwards’ endorsement also did another thing: It undercuts Clinton’s Florida/Michigan argument. As we know by now, Obama will gain a majority of the pledged delegates after Tuesday’s contests in Kentucky and Oregon. But if you award Obama Edwards’ 18 pledged delegates -- who technically can vote for anyone at the convention, but whom you’d also expect to side with Obama -- then Obama, if he picks up about 50 delegates on Tuesday (less than half of the delegates up for grabs that night), he would obtain a majority of pledged delegates even if you include Florida and Michigan’s entire delegations. Here’s the math: 4,051 (the DNC convention voting total) minus 797 (superdelegates) equals 3,254 plus FL’s (185) and MI’s (128) delegates equals 3,567. Divide that by two (and round up), and here’s the number needed for a majority: 1,784. Obama currently has 1,599 pledged delegates. Add in those 18 Edwards delegates, add in our low estimate of 50 for him Tuesday and that gets you to 1,667. Now, add in the Clinton best-case scenarios in MI/FL, giving her the delegates with the voting as is, Obama would then reach a majority of the pledged delegates OVERALL. Assume a 105-67 split in FL and a 73-55 split in MI. That gives Obama a grand total of: 1,789.
<...>
*** The numbers: Obama picked up 4.5 superdelegates delegates yesterday to one for Clinton. (Obama got Lena Taylor, Oklahoma's Mike Morgan, state senate pro tempore as well as 2.5 others overnight; Clinton picked up the endorsement of Tennessee DNC member Vicky Harwell, president of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women.) The counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1599 to 1447; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 287.5 to 276.5; TOTAL: Obama 1,886.5 to 1,723.5. There are 233 superdelegates who remain undecided of the 797 total. Obama needs 139.5 to reach the magic number of 2,026; Clinton needs 302.5. Since last Tuesday, Obama has picked up 31 superdelegates to Clinton's 1.5.
link May 15, 2008
I suspect there will be more of these, but the AP reports on the first Edwards delegate to come out for Obama.
DemConWatch
is keeping close track, and has the expected hints from more.
Whether or not Obama gets them, a change is coming.
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