Looking forward: What are the swing states?

[Zynx]

The primary is pointless to discuss anymore so let us look forward to the GE and do so soberly.

Swing states are states that in a close election could go one way or the other. States that might flip in the context of a national landslide, like Oklahoma on their side or Illinois on our side, are not swing states.

I think in the case of Obama, a few states that are normally swing states won't be, with those being Arkansas and West Virginia. Conversely, I think he is more competitive in Nevada and Colorado than other Dems have been in recent years and I think he takes Minnesota out of contention.

I do not buy into the idea he makes any Deep South state a swing state. The simple reason for this is that we hardly ever crack 25% of the White vote in any of those states and I don't see why that would get any better this time.

As such, here is my list of swing states:

New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado(he seems unusually strong there)
Nevada
New Mexico
Virginia
Florida
Missouri

What do you guys think the battleground will be? I've seen a lot of talk about the Carolinas and Georgia, but I see little reason to hold out much hope there.

My final disclaimer is that this is assuming a close election. If he wins by a blowout and starts making states like Kansas competitive, well that doesn't really matter anymore since the election is already won.

[democrattotheend]

1. You forgot Pennsylvania and Minnesota

We can't take those states for granted. Minnesota I am fairly confident about but it was close in 2004...same thing with PA, and I am a little less confident about PA.

[Zynx]

3. The evidence I see is that Minnesota won't really be close.

I could be wrong, but Obama does seem to have a greater than expected level of support there.

[harun]

11. Wisconsin won't be either, big win for Obama (n/t)

[Zynx]

24. Wisconsin is a pretty polarized state. However, Obama will clean up in Dane and Milwaukee in a big

way. He also has some appeal among some suburban Republicans around Milwaukee.

[democrattotheend]

41. Wisconsin and Minnesota have same-day registration. That makes a big difference

It makes it a lot easier for college students to vote. I think that's one of the reasons Obama won by a bigger than expected margin in the Wisconsin primary.

[Zynx]

44. Oh, believe me I know. :-)

The thing is that the Republicans have an impressive turnout machine in Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties that largely offset Dane County or Milwaukee County, though not both.

[underpants]

2. All of the Mountain West

that is why they are having the convention in Denver

The Repubs are having theirs in Minneapolis which tells you where they think they can battle either that or they were drawn by Norm Coleman's electric personality.

[Zynx]

4. Are you including Montana, Idaho and Utah?

[democrattotheend]

6. Call me crazy, but I think Montana is worth competing for

Clinton won it in 1992, largely because he bothered to show up. There's a pretty strong libertarian spirit there, and with Bob Barr running he might peel away some votes from McCain. And if Ron Paul endorses Obama (he said he liked his foreign policy) that could be a boost.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Montana, yes, Idaho & Utah no.

Though the recent poll here (Utah) had Obama within 11 of McCain.

[Zynx]

20. I kinda sorta doubt that, regarding Utah.

That would be a narrowing of something like 30 points from 2004 in terms of spread. I just can't believe that.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. It's true.

It was a SurveyUSA poll done a couple of months ago.

[Zynx]

29. I know, but some polls are drastically off.

[PBS Poll-435]

12. Definitely Coleman's Personality

ELECTRIC!

:rofl:

[XemaSab]

16. Almost all of the western states have Democratic governors

Arizona
*Gov. Janet Napolitano

Colorado
*Gov. Bill Ritter

Idaho
*Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter

Montana
*Gov. Brian Schweitzer

New Mexico
*Gov. Bill Richardson

Oregon
Gov. Ted Kulongoski

Washington
Gov. Chris Gregoire

Wyoming
*Gov. Dave Freudenthal

This leaves Nevada, California, Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah as states in the west with republican governors. Two of them are firmly in our column, and two are pretty firmly in theirs (barring a freak accident for them in Alaska.) Nevada's a swing state with a republican governor.

[Texas Hill Country]

5. you skipped WV... Hillary would likely win WV, Barack prolly not, but... still. Also,

I do agree that most of the rest of those are battlegrounds... I am horrified that NH is, but pleased about Colorado and NV

[democrattotheend]

7. She could probably win Arkansas too, and there's no way in hell he can.

[Texas Hill Country]

30. absolutely true... i didnt even think about that

[NewHampshireDem]

15. NH is for now

I'm sure you recall that McCain won the NH primary in 2000. Since then, it's been all down-hill for Bush. I think what we are seeing is a bit of a nostalgia for McCain, which won't last once we begin hammering him on his abandonment of his 'maverick' brand and full-fledged embrace of Bush. I don't think there are enough 28%'ers in NH to carry the day for McCain, and with a strong Democratic contender for the Senate in Jeanne Shaheen, we should be able to GOTV effectively enough to keep NH blue in 2008.

The Iraq War is also a big issue in NH, since we've had so many of our Guard Units gone for so long. Most of the moderate republicans I know think this has gone on long enough; they want their friends, sons, police offices, and firefighters brought home.

(Please, god, let it be so.)

[Drunken Irishman]

9. If Clinton is the nominee, Oregon and Washington go from safe Dem, to toss-up.

[Zynx]

21. I am not even bothering with the idea Clinton will be the nominee.

[NewHampshireDem]

10. With Obama as the nominee, TX also comes into play

IIRC, McCain has a lead there that is only 1 or 2 points beyond the margin of error.

[harun]

13. I think he could win Texas (n/t)

[Zynx]

18. There were a couple polls like that, but I also saw a poll earlier that had McCain up 14% which

just sounds closer to the mark. Republicans have a ginormous(I love that faux word) identification advantage in Texas.

[lastliberalintexas]

35. Not even with Jesus H. Christ as our nominee

Sorry.

[NewHampshireDem]

38. We don't need Jesus, we just need McCain

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/5/114648/0965/138/509389

Texas is purple this year.

First of, the Senate race:

Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43

That is nothing short of remarkable, and a hint that this may be a top-tier race before long. Research 2000 is polling Texas for me over the next couple of days, with results due on Thursday, so we'll have a second poll to compare to this one. Outlier or trend? We'll soon see. But don't forget (especially you super delegates), this is all post-Wright.

In the presidential, Democrats will be hugely competitive:

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 43

McCain (R) 49
Clinton (D) 43

It's even better for Obama than the numbers above indicate.

Total Male Female Rep Dem
McCain (R) 48 45 52 80 16
Obama (D) 43 47 40 17 69

McCain (R) 49 52 46 85 7
Clinton (D) 43 40 47 13 82

Clinton supporters are being a bit ornery here, but given it's mostly women supporters, they'll have to choose between holding the grudge all the way into November and letting McCain deliver a solid anti-Choice Supreme Court in the next four years (Stevens is 88 and Ginsburg 75). Ultimately, both candidates would rally the base, and there's no doubt that Obama will score better than 69 percent of the Democratic vote and 40 percent of women.

McCain will be constrained by public financing and his own fundraising incompetence, facing a cash-flush Barack Obama. The last thing he needs to do is be forced to defend a huge, expensive state like Texas. But that looks like exactly what will happen this fall.

Perhaps the single biggest gain of this long primary season was the activation of Texas' Latino voters, something long promised but frustratingly elusive. And for that, we have the Clinton campaign to thanks. And even though she won't be on the ballot this November, the combination of Noriega and Obama will hopefully keep them as engaged through this election season as they were back in March. (Unfortunately, Ras didn't break out his sample by ethnicity and race.)

But Obama has made his contributions as well -- his activation of the youth vote is a key factor in the expansion of the Democrats' map this year. Noriega wins the 18-29 cohort by a stunning 61-25. How's that for a taste of the future of Texas politics? The youth vote is a strong factor in the presidential as well:

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65 and up
McCain (R) 28 45 51 55 58
Obama (D) 56 54 42 39 27

McCain (R) 28 54 44 54 55
Clinton (D) 59 38 48 39 39

That is a stark generational divide between Obama, McCain and Clinton. Obama crushes McCain with the under-40 crowd, and gets crushed above that line. Clinton is competitive up to the age of 50 (probably thanks to her strong support among boomer women). The 71-year-old McCain represents the past.

Again, that foretells a bright future for Texas Democrats.

p.s. Bush has a weak 39 percent approval rating in his own home state. It's fun seeing his incompetent ass bring down his entire party with him. It's the least we can expect given what he's done to this country and world the last seven+ years.

[Stop Cornyn]

14. I like Poblano's model:

From this model, I project the dozen swingiest swing states to be Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina (yes, North Carolina), Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida.

Absent an unforseen development, I think Iowa is beyond McSame's grasp, and his chances in Iowa are about the same as our chances in Georgia and even Texas, which are within the realm of swinging blue under the right circumstances.

[Zynx]

19. I don't see how Indiana is competitive while New Hampshire is beyond our grasp.

I think Indiana and Kentucky will vote fairly similarly. I won't get optimistic over one poll that showed it close. I also don't see how we can be competitive in Georgia and South Carolina while not being competitive in Missouri. That makes zero sense.

[Stop Cornyn]

28. I agree that it seems a bit counter-intuitive, but Poblano keeps predicting the results correctly.

He explains it here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

It offers interesting analysis. I was skeptical at first, but he is building a pretty good track record. You'll find interesting in any event.

[H2O Man]

17. Nominated.

Very interesting. This is the type of discussion that we should be focusing on. Thank you for posting the OP.

While the main contest is always between the republican and democratic nominees, I think that there are two other factors that could come into play. First, if Bob Barr makes a serious run, I think he could hurt McCain in several states; second, more than in most years, the choice of VP candidates could have a significant influence on some states. If, for example, McCain did pick Condi Rice, it would be different than if he picked a Daniel Quayle-type. Likewise, the democratic VP could play a role in determining the outcome in one or more states. What do you think?

[Zynx]

22. The Veep choice is important. Either McCain or Obama could put states into play that aren't right

now. If McCain picks Pawlenty, he could do better in Minnesota, maybe. If Obama picks Kaine, he has a better shot in Virginia.

[alteredstate]

23. Obama could take South Carolina

[Zynx]

25. Without more than the 22% of the White vote Kerry got it is statistically virtually impossible.

[NJSecularist]

39. Obama is not winning South Carolina. n/t

[jzodda]

27. Your list looks about right to me

Florida does not look so good to Obama right now from the polls I have read though. RCP has McCain ahead by 9 points. Some states intrigue me this election like Virgina, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. We could lose Florida and Ohio, assuming we keep the states we won in 2004 and win with those above states if they switch. Nevada and New Mexico were especially close last time around. Virgina demographics have been trending blue of late, a good sign for a big state. Of course we could win Ohio, which looks closer as of now then Florida and the economy there is worse now then in 2004.

I don't see having a prayer in Texas so I would not even devote resources there.

[woolldog]

31. I would add the Carolinas.

In most of the recent polls I've seen, they are running close.

[Texas Hill Country]

34. ummm, no, they are not.

[PM7nj]

36. There was a Ras poll showing McCain up only 3pts in NC last week

and there was an OLD poll showing him up only 3 in SC.

I agree that the Carolinas are long shots, but it could happen.

[Zynx]

37. I believe those as much as those earlier polls that showed McCain in contention in MA.

[woolldog]

43. So you believe some polls but not others....

and you choose which ones to believe based on whether or not they back up your preconceived notions of what they should say???

You could dispute the swing state status of every swing state you listed in your OP on that basis.

[Zynx]

45. Actually, yes I do. I don't believe polls simply on their face.

There are set patterns to how each state votes based on their histories. Most voters are fairly set in their ways one way or the other. Change is largely at the margins.

The problem with some polls is that they do not properly take into account the partisan leanings of a particular state. I believe we have to take a look at how the poll was conducted. For example, I saw a poll once that showed Bush in contention in Maryland in 2004, but given the fact he lost it by 16 points in 2000 I kind of doubted it. I looked inside the poll and found that they had Democrats 7 points undersampled relative to their registration. These sorts of things are important.

[woolldog]

40. I guess we look at different polls.

In Rasmussen 5/8/08 he was 3 points down in NC; a month earlier 4/9/08 he was tied with McCain. McCain is up an average of 6 points in NC taking all polls into account. In the only poll I've seen from SC BO was also 3 points down. But admittedly that poll is dated.

Turnout will be key. And I'm sure the Obama campaign will push hard in the Carolinas and Virginia.

[NewHampshireDem]

32. Kos just put up a poll showing that Alaska could swing our way, too

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/15/12326/5308/445/516209

McCain (R) 49
Obama (D) 42

McCain (R) 55
Clinton (D) 37

Obama makes it competitive, and McCain's position on ANWR gives what could be his base reason to stay home.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[OzarkDem]

42. Swing states normally have a large population of voters

low population states like NH or NM aren't always included.

IIRC, the top 3 battleground/"absolutely must win" states are usually Ohio, Pennsylvania & Michigan. Others are Missouri and Florida. They're states that not only have large numbers of voters, but also can switch from one party to another.

[Zynx]

46. That Lake Erie hinge is pretty damn important.

If you win 2 out of three your are at least in play. 3 of 3 for Democrats is becoming vital given how some states elsewhere in the country seem to have moved out of reach such as Georgia, Tennessee, and Louisiana.