The math seems to be working against Obama...

[liberalcommontater]

Look at these maps.

The NY Times comes to a different conclusion than I do, but look at the maps. What do you think? Clinton is STRONG.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/17/opinion/17blow.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

This one looks to favor a Clinton win in November and an Obama loss.
http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/2008/05/17/saturday-welcome-new-conflucians/

One more. Again Clinton bests McCain. Obama does not.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[mikiturner]

1. Sheesh

Right out of the Clinton Conference call talking points.

[Yael]

52. Its all about the maps, MAPS, I say! Math doesn't count any longer.

[liberalcommontater]

55. Actually the math is important too...

but if victory in the fall is good for all of us, shouldn't we at least look at it?

[Yael]

57. No, because that data is meaningless while we are still in a primary

Stop back by in September and we'll chat.

[liberalcommontater]

67. Hope you agreed that we need a Dem to win in November?

If the superdelegates "see" that Hillary will more likely win and Barak will more likely lose in November, why should they not consider this?

[Yael]

68. They can consider anything they want

Why I volunteer as a Sysop on the Transparency Project (linked in my sig).

To track who is backing whom and whose voters backed which candidate.

Maryland is the most mismatched of the bunch.

[liberalcommontater]

87. Thanks for the link. I have heard of it, but never seen it. nt

[ORDem]

124. Bingo!!!!!! nt

[PassingFair]

73. I'm the map, I'm the map, I'm the map, I'm the map, I'M THE MAP!!!1!

[K Gardner]

103. DORA !!! Si Se Peude !

[VotesForWomen]

92. math is *dependent* on the map. a whole lot of states O won in the primary will be giving dems a bi

big fat ZERO electoral votes in nov. there's your math for you.

[roguevalley]

94. even rendell said obama would win penn in the fall. unbelievable

[JoFerret]

120. Why is it so hard to get attention paid to that?

Is it because there is the belief that we will have some kind of new and improved electoral map?

[roguevalley]

93. amazing isn't it. so sad.

[JoFerret]

105. In the end it is the maps

not the popular vote nor the number of states nor the margin of victory/ loss in any state.

Don't you think so?

[liberalcommontater]

108. I think it is a perfectly legitimate way to look at things...

Remember back in 2000 when James Baker III was saying that delaying the Bush transition was damaging to the country because there were so many positions to be filled, the transition to be completed, etc. Al Gore was being selfish to cling to hope of victory and was even hurting the country in the process. He was a sore loser. Sore loser man!

Wouldn't we all have waited until Feb or March to find out the real count in Florida? The damage to our country has been far greater than any delay could have been in seating the president in 2000. Especially given the actual result.

Obama fans must fear that somehow, some way Clinton will secure the nomination. For all the protestations that it is OVER, why the angst? For my part, I want a Dem to win in November. Clinton is my choice, but as it is not about me, if Obama is the nominee, then I want him to win. I fear he will not, hence the maps.

[JoFerret]

112. Agreed re the maps

Is there any sane "expert" opinion out there reading these tea leaves?
(Actually - they seem to me to be more like flashing alarm signals than tea leaves.)

[liberalcommontater]

113. Yes, a good way to put it...

what they show will certainly change some by November. However, that does not mean for the Dems.

[rodeodance]

109. I do.

[jsmirman]

2. The Math is working quite nicely for him. The math that is about to push her off the cliff.

But way to sell your talking points.

[liberalcommontater]

5. Short term it would appear so...

Long term, I hope the Dem nominee wins.

[jsmirman]

11. Good. So vote for the nominee. We have a process and he won it.

And no amount of Sybil Trelawney divination can change that.

[Buzz Clik]

51. "Math" doesn't consist of looking at pictures.

Jesu Cristo!

Put down the crayons and walk away -- slowly! -- from the map.

[rodeodance]

42. It's the Maps not the Math.

[cliffordu]

47. Maps....Are these road maps or are they elevation maps??

USGS Quads??

Google earth?? Mapquest??

What kind of maps are you trying to manipulate??

[liberalcommontater]

50. What do these maps tell you...

even if we take for a given that Clinton is out of the race and Obama will be the nominee? The only pertinent comment I read so far is that I should man a phone bank and go to work for him. A very reasonable idea since I want the Dem nominee to win in the fall.

[cliffordu]

61. Well. Get thee to a phone bank and get to callin' then.

[liberalcommontater]

63. For Clinton as long as she is in...

Obama when she is not.

[JoFerret]

119. Admirable point of view

.

[neverforget]

59. Catapulting the Propaganda?

[Lucky 13]

95. Yes yes, we all heard your marching orders.

every last pathetic word. You got the meme down pat. A+ for you.

[JoFerret]

107. THAT math does seem to be that way. THIS math

is the actual math that leads to the presidency. There's a difference. Do you dispute the electoral college map? I am sure many do. On what basis would you challenge this particular version?

[Waya]

3. GAWD......another one..........

:crazy:

[XemaSab]

18. My "buddy" list is growing by leaps and bounds!

:D

[mrreowwr_kittty]

4. Remember what she said on the conference call, liberalcommontater

"It's the MAP, not the MATH!"

[liberalcommontater]

13. I suspect she would not be saying that if she were ahead, but it

is what it is. Would Obama? Would you, if you thought she would lose and he would win? Just asking you to think about it.

Winning in the fall is paramount and the race is close enough for the super delegates to decide the candidate. If Clinton is the better candidate, they should choose her. If she has a shot, she should stay in if she believes she would win in the fall and he would lose.

[cliffordu]

37. When you do these conference calls, do they email you the talking points

or do you have to write real fast to get the most salient ones down in order??

[liberalcommontater]

45. Actually I take all my notes in emoticons ;^]

[roguevalley]

96. i feel for you, liberalcommontator, because you are a cutie. go. call on phones. :)

[liberalcommontater]

106. My wife tells me that I sneezed...

ie, passed along information. You must have missed the several posts where I explained that I was not acting on any instructions to distribute maps. I did not hear about this phone conference until this afternoon. What I find facinating is that I did "get the message" through the blogs and sites that I read, plus my own interest in the electoral map - see the third link - without having been on the call. I found the call and listened to it. A lot of thanks and keep going.

I think we can agree that we need to pick up at least 20 more seats in the house, 60 or more total in the Senate and the White House. That would be good.

[Yael]

54. No, he wouldn't. He's sane.

[liberalcommontater]

62. I hope all our leaders are...

I am just not under any illusions that Obama is anything but a politician with a thin resume and he is good a what he does.

Not to start an argument on an unrelated topic, he embraced Wright, distanced himself, then disowned him. Wright would not sell. I don't blame Obama. It was realpolitik. However, having spent my teaching career in African American dominant schools, I understand the emotion and rationale behind Rev. Wrights comments. How many citizens have been taken through the wringer by the IRS and said something similar to what Rev. Wright said?!

Should Obama have made a similar argument - Damn America for letting people go without healthcare, for allowing good jobs to be shipped overseas, for allowing the last two elections to be stolen, for the historical injustices, etc etc etc. This is not the America we want or were raised to believe in. When you elect me President we will begin the long process of finding our way again to that America that we ALL believe in.

That would have been a little different.

[TwilightGardener]

6. It's over. You can analyze from now until kingdom come, but until you

can come up with a way to eliminate Obama, he's the nominee. You need to come to grips with it.

[liberalcommontater]

64. Obama will probably be the nominee...

when he is I will be fine. I only want a Dem in November. I want our country back.

Edwards 1st choice.
Clinton 2nd choice.
Obama 3rd choice.

Guess I'm not very good at picking winners, huh?

Though I do think of Edwards as a winner. He was right on the issues I care about most. Can you imagine him as Attorney General!!!!!!!:)

Eliminate...like Gore, Kerry? Like RFK, JFK and MLK? Coups take place in many ways. Whether President Clinton or President Obama, I pray that they are allowed to carry out their mandate. We should collectively decide our fate, not those behind the shooter on the grassy knoll or those behind the political operative at the keyboard controlling the databases on servers in a bank basement in Tennessee.

[OnTheRadio]

7. YAYAYAYAY!!!!! GO HILL

[Warren DeMontague]

91. You again?

Nice job, Mods! :thumbsup:

[roguevalley]

97. even a shoe won't work on that sadsack.

[MercutioATC]

8. Talk to me about GE numbers after we have a nominee.

Both Clinton and Obama supporters will be reluctant to voice support for the other candidate right now.

A month after we have a nominee, we'll start to get a marginally realistic picture of how things stand.

[liberalcommontater]

17. The numbers are sure to change some...

they may improve substantially in our favor, for the Dem nominee. But then they may get worse.

[MercutioATC]

28. Agreed...they could go either way.

My point is that they're extremely unreliable in predicting the GE outcome before we actually have two GE candidates.

[liberalcommontater]

35. Agreed, but they are what we have...

Interesting, I just read a lot from a variety of sources. I havn't been on any conference calls and work all day. I miss a lot. Sounds like the Clinton team put out a directive...its the map not the math? The message must have gotten through to me. Sorry if this is old news and already been debated. Kind of interesting that I got the message anyway and passed it along.

Thanks for commenting.

This is my main reading list. I think it would be interesting to see others sources of info to.

http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/
http://www.truthout.org/index.htm
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/
http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/
http://firedoglake.com/
http://www.crooksandliars.com/
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=204
http://www.dailykos.com/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

[CoffeeCat]

9. Since Obama will be our nominee...

...if you don't like "the math" we'd all be wise to sign
up for phone banking, canvassing or some other helpful
activity.

On the other hand--I don't know how in the world anyone could figure
a Democratic loss in Nov. The GE race hasn't even begun. Give it three
weeks with the GE in full swing, and then we'll see.

Furthermore, Dem primary turnout is up 100 percent. With those numbers,
we could nominate a squirrel and win hands down.

No worries. Obama will kick the stuffing right out of McCain.

[OnTheRadio]

10. Goddess of peace will be the nominee

[anonymous171]

14. Goddess of War, you mean.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

32. I think that's the first time I've seen someone call her the Goddess of Peace in earnest.

Yikes. :scared:

[rodeodance]

46. nah, Jay Leno was sincere when he introduced Hillarry as such a few weeks back.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

49. Double yikes.

:scared: :scared:

[nxylas]

104. One of my former ignore list used to call her that all the time

And I'm pretty sure he was being serious.

[cali]

15. Your Messiahette is toast. Sorry.

[cliffordu]

26. Messiahette...lol

:rofl:

[CoffeeCat]

116. What in the hell are you talking about?

You guys have gone completely outer limits.

I don't even know what to say to you anymore.

I was at a party once, standing around laughing and talking with
a bunch of people--and this really obnoxious young woman walks up
and said, "Man, I wish they'd make another Brady Bunch movie."

Everyone smiled and kinda nodded...hoping she wasn't carrying
a live hand grenade.

You are just like that young woman. Totally oblivious and
existing in some kind of bizarro world universe.

I really hope that after Obama is the nominee, that you find
some other candidate or pursuit to occupy your time.

[Kittycat]

34. Goddess of Clusterbombs.

troll.

[liberalcommontater]

40. Troll...???

Only here to cause trouble? OnTheRadio thinks Clinton would manage foreign affairs better than Geo. Bush. I agree. Better than Obama? I agree too.

Last time I looked this was called Democratic Underground, not Obama Underground.

[cliffordu]

43. Pantsuit. Archie bunker in a pantsuit....

[Kittycat]

44. Take a moment to view Ontheradio's short tenure with us.

[liberalcommontater]

53. I have been reading since 04, but just posting lately...

are you saying that she signed up just to post Clinton propaganda?

[Kittycat]

60. That's what the Conference Calls suggested.

[liberalcommontater]

70. I wonder how much the candidates and their top people rely...

one dedicated information spreaders and how much takes off on its own? Depends on the story I guess.

[roguevalley]

99. last time I checked, ontheradio was tombstoned for being a troll.

pick your friends and allies better, hon.

[CoffeeCat]

How will she do that?

I understand that it's tough to lose, but there comes
a time when you need to face reality.

How are you thinking that she's going to win?

[CoffeeCat]

71. How will she do that?

I understand that it's tough to lose, but there comes
a time when you need to face reality.

How are you thinking that she's going to win?

[roguevalley]

98. you're tombstoned, you goon.

[liberalcommontater]

19. I hope the Dem nominee wins, hands down...

It can not even be close what with election fraud lurking.

[dchill]

12. Oh good! Another concern troll!

Welcome. Don't worry, everything will be OK!

[liberalcommontater]

24. Thanks. Glad to be here.

[Spazito]

16. LOL a day late and many threads already ahead of you...

oh, and btw, we already know about the blogger conference call and the directive to spread this crap.

:rofl:

[liberalcommontater]

25. Sorry, I missed that one, but

perhaps I picked up on it because I read both pro and anti Hillary sites and the message came through to me. Kind of scary huh?

[Aloha Spirit]

20. You're off message. Now, "it's the map, not the math." Please pay attention.

[cliffordu]

21. Like the trickle of Super delegates to Obama - Apparently Hillary has

her own trickle going on here - - A trickle of trolls to help us All decide what needs to happen.


HOWZAT WORKING FOR YA???

:rofl:

Whattaya want to bet this has been going on for months??

[gristy]

22. Dem nomination is to be won by land area of counties won now?

:rofl:

Your third link implies we are supposed to choose our candidate by GE polling, rather than voting in the primaries and caucuses. Well, get yourself onto the DNC, and maybe you can pull for this approach as they look to revise the rules (or not) on how the Dem party selects their candidate next time around. :rofl:

[Yael]

56. Fond memories of JLake and the meme

that only exit polls should count toward the nomination.

Those were the days...

[newmajority]

23. The meth seems to be working against Hillbots

Don't let this happen to you :(

[madfloridian]

27. How was that conference call? Yet another.

[liberalcommontater]

69. Hi, that conference call must have been effective to some degree...

While I have never been on a conference call in my life and someone commented that this was old news yesterday, I find it interesting in its effectiveness in that the message was out there...

I read these sites daily...

http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/
http://www.truthout.org/index.htm
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/
http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/
http://firedoglake.com/
http://www.crooksandliars.com/
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=204
http://www.dailykos.com/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

The message apparently got to me and I passed it along. I guess that's how the internets work.

BTW, I enjoy your posts. Very thoughtful stuff. :) Though I don't always agree. ;(

Edit: I am listening to the conference call just now.

[phrigndumass]

29. How can Clinton win in November when she loses in May?

It's not like we get to nominate two candidates for President. LOL!

[liberalcommontater]

41. Good point :^] nt

[Kittycat]

30. Maps don't = Math, not in a primary election

We'll worry about maps when we get deep in to the GE. In the meantime, Hillary lost.

[liberalcommontater]

65. You are right unless the superdelegates see the...

"writing on the wall" and believe he cannot win.

When he gets the nomination (I expect him to) I hope he wins. I think Hillary can win, I think Obama can lose, see maps, and think that should be seriously considered by the super delegates. If it is close enough for them to be able to decide it, then I think they should.

The thing that really pushed me even more this way was the lack of a revote in Michigan and Florida. I live in Michigan and want my say. The party screwed up, not the voters. The party should fix it and let the votes fall where they may.

[anonymous171]

31. Wolfson: "This is a race for Delegates." eom

[DU GrovelBot]

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This week is our second quarter 2008 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
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[Doityourself]

36. Omg..another troll..they must have had a meeting and decided to bombard the board n/t

[cliffordu]

38. Please donate before you get the chicklet, 'Kay?

[Speck Tater]

39. OMFG! Another representative from the state of Denial. NT

[Buzz Clik]

48. Golly! Look at duh purdy pitchers!

[Oleladylib]

58. I hope none of this is a surprise to DUers or you haven't been watching!

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

66. As Appalacia goes, so goes the nation!

Not.

[anonymous171]

72. YES IT DOES! THAT'S WHY THE GOP CHOSE HUCKABEE!

[RBInMaine]

74. It's EARLY, he beats McCain in the national polls, and Hillary is DONE !

[Warren DeMontague]

75. Maps and Math..... Wonder where you got that?

:shrug:

[liberalcommontater]

78. Interesting isn't it...

I just now listened to the conference call. I didn't find anything surprising or different than I would have expected. There were a lot of thanks and keep going. The message was maps not math, but I think this is just a variation on the electability argument for the fall. The fact that I "sneezed" that message before hearing that call shows how effective the internets are at spreading information.

If you want to hear it yourself here is the link:
http://www.taylormarsh.com/audio.php?audio=http://www.taylormarsh.com/podcast/mp3/stream.2008-05-16.134204.mp3

[Warren DeMontague]

81. Well, the bottom line is, all those "arguments" are desperate baloney.

There has NEVER been any evidence to suggest that Hillary will be a stronger candidate than Obama in the GE. If anything, the evidence is pretty solid that it's the reverse. And to make suggestions like 'Hillary won the California primary, so obviously she can win it in November but Obama can't' is just facile logic of the worst sort.

Look, she's lost the primary process- she's NOT the stronger candidate- she's thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Obama and he's still winning... I know it's not likely to happen, but it's time for her to accept reality and start bringing this party together under Senator Obama for November.

[liberalcommontater]

83. Why do 65% of Dems want her to stay in the race?

Why did she beat Obama by 41% in West Virgina? By almost 10% in Pennsylvania? In Ohio? In Texas?

More importantly, why did Obama reject the notion of a revote in Michigan and Florida? The voters did not screw up, the party did. The party should fix it.

New politics is not selling to the Democratic base. The Democratic base wants someone who can hold the Republicans to the wall by the neck and tell them how things are going to be. Senator Obama's bipartisan approach will not usher in a new era of agreement. It is a talking point.

Agreed that polls today will change by November, but given what people know so far Hillary does far better on the Electoral Map than does Senator Obama. Do you think that Obama does better the more people get to know him? Does Senator Clinton do better as people hear from her?

She is losing, granted. It is not over until she withdraws and/or the delegates vote in August.

[Warren DeMontague]

89. Let's be clear: Obama is not responsible for the predicament of FL and MI.

And Obama is not in charge of "accepting" or "rejecting" a "re-vote". He's a United States Senator. It's not up to him.

As for "65% of Dems want her to stay in the race"... sure, and 90% of all statistics are made up on the spot. I'm not buying that.

Also, it turns out Hillary lost Texas. Maybe you missed that.

As for why Hillary won some states and not others- it's a Primary. That means we, as Democrats, may have a Democrat we prefer over the other Democrat, but again, primary success is no indicator of General Election performance. If anything, the only news- and it's good- is that lots of voters are coming out to vote for a Democrat.

[liberalcommontater]

102. More votes for Dems is good news all around, especially...

house seats +3 recently and +20 or more in the fall.

I heard about some problems in Texas. Not too clear on the details.

The 65% number I have heard for quite a while from several places. True? Made up, no.

Revote - Dean says that the DNC will go along with whatever the two candidates agree on about Mi and Fla. Clinton wants a revote, Obama does not. It is up to him to accept or reject this, that is why Clinton is demanding the Rules committee meet at the end of the month on the issue of Mi and Fla.

You are right Obama is not responsible for the predicament in the first place, but he has prevented the fairest solution. Thus, he is responsible for the current predicament.

[casus belli]

76. You say the math isn't working for him, then offer maps as proof.

I'm not sure whether that was intentional, but I hope you understand the difference.

[liberalcommontater]

82. Yes indeed.

Not intentional, since maps are based on numbers. However, maps can be tricky as you know - Wyoming is big, Rhode Island is small, but the latter has more people.

I am referring to the electability math of the electoral college, the demographic math that points to deep yet narrow support, the maps just illustrate the concept. Another way to put it is with Obama's victorious state totals, 30 states give or take a few. Sounds great except many are sure to go Republican in the fall. Many have many fewer voters than many other states. This is not to say that they are unimportant. They are, but as you point out the math and the maps need to confirm each other to be reliable, not just a manipulation of the data.

FWIW - I am for a Dem President more than I am for any one candidate. Edwards, Clinton, Obama.

Thanks for pointing that out.

[casus belli]

86. Right, the problem is the map is misleading about the math

Looking at this map it would be hard to draw that Obama has created a nearly insurmountable lead in the popular vote. Most of Hillary's areas are large geographic plots of land with much smaller populations - rural areas. That's not to discount rural voters, who are important, but the maps simply show a geographic area and color the entire area according to who won it. You could have a state the size of a dollar bill on a map. You could have a scenario where the majority of the population of that state could fit into a space the size of the numeral in the corner of the bill. Let's say in that particular case Obama won that numeral sized piece 55/45 out of a total 1,000,000 voters for that area. Let's say the rest of the state combined had 100,000 voters which Hillary won 60/40. The totals for the entire state would be Obama = 590,000, Hillary = 510,000. Obama has a net gain of 80,000 votes even though Hillary gets to color the entire state except the numeral sized area. So proportionally, even though maybe 90% of the state is Hillary's color, the truth is that she lost by a reasonable margin.

That is why the maps do not work in this type of a scenario. It HAS to be about the math, because the maps simply try to make a geographical representation out of the math, but it gives no representation to population which is the far more legitimate metric.

[liberalcommontater]

88. Agreed, except with maps of the Electoral College...

and as with the second link, the states resized to reflect their electoral importance, you get both "accurate" numbers and pictorial representation.

The difficulty then, admittedly, is that this is May and not November.

Thanks for responding so throughly.

[Honeycombe8]

77. Those maps don't mean anything. What is it you think they mean? ARe you that ignorant of

how the general election works?

It means nothing that a dark red state votes for a particular nominee in the Dem. primary process, and that person doesn't end up being the nominee. It means absolutely nothing...unless some Dem. candidate is thinking they can get the state to turn blue.

Obama has a different map. If you are interested in facts, I will post that one later for your benefit. His campaign has had a plan for some time now, and he is on track to executing that plan. His "winning" map for the GE does not include PA or FL.

The Democratic Party is changing the map. Hopefully from a losing one to an advantage-to-win map. Where the Dems aren't ALWAYS trying to get the same several purple states to swing their way. It simply isn't happening often enough, or reliably enough.

Time to get some western states, some southwestern states, some more northwestern states, to turn BLUE (not purple).

[liberalcommontater]

85. Please do, I like maps. nt

[AtomicKitten]

79. Obama puts 10 red states in play; Hillary will have to eek out a 50+1% win.

[liberalcommontater]

84. Nice pic.

[VotesForWomen]

127. and you wonder why people say you guys are cultists.

[JTFrog]

80. 42!

[tandem5]

90. brown and pink hmmm interesting color code for the last link nt

[Milo_Bloom]

100. Clinton can't win.

She loses the anti-war vote and has no chance in November.

That is why we nominated Obama.

[kwenu]

101. That's the truth in a nutshell.

[smoogatz]

110. This ridiculous map business must seem a little desperate, even to you.

Your maps mean shit. GE polling before the GE has begun means shit. Obama will kick McCain's wrinkly ass the same way he kicked Hillary's, and he'll look good doing it.

[liberalcommontater]

114. He is a handsome man and speaks well...

I hope if he is the nominee that he wins, for all of us.

Clinton '08

[MindMatter]

111. Another moran for my ignore list

[Stop Cornyn]

115. The story has a map of the places I'd rather not be driving through when my car breaks down:

[crimsonblue]

117. FYI, Maps aren't math...

they're visuals.. And polls aren't math, either. They're snapshot statistical samplings that have absolutely no correlation to how the candidates will perform in the fall. If you don't believe me, look at the polls from last October... Clinton sure won the nomination all right... this OP is a complete and utter.....

[liberalcommontater]

121. Hmmmm...

"They're visuals." Talk to Edward Tufte about visual/graphical representations of numeric data.
"They're snapshot statistical samplings" sounds like math to me.

"Correlation" ?
I do agree that a snapshot today may be different than a snapshot another day. However, given the likely electoral results in several states and narrowing the likely results in the states that could go either way in November using past election results, polls today and primary results gives us a basis for guessing a likely result. Not a sure thing. Not even, perhaps, an accurate result. A guess. We do it all the time. The question is how accurate is the guess likely to be? IF, the maps represent accurate numeric data then Obama and we are in a world of trouble and have our work cut out for us if he is the nominee.

That's all I'm saying.

[Spider Jerusalem]

118. Hillary has lost the nomination and will not be the candidate.

And with Clinton out of the race those maps will change--the election is almost six months away, or hadn't you heard? Six months before Super Tuesday, Hillary was inevitable. And this year has seen record Democratic primary turnout and record numbers of new voter registrations, along with record-breaking fundraising from Obama's supporters. How you think the Republicans really have a chance to win with McCain, an old and unwell man with a temper problem who doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about half the time ('my friends, I don't know much about economics'), is really beyond me.

[MrSlayer]

122. Actually the math has already worked in Obama's favor.

He won. Clinton is done. Over. Kaput. Insert fork. Finished. Endsville.

None of it matters anymore.

[stillcool]

123. I'ts the Map! The map I tell you!

forget the delegates, forget the votes ....For God's sake it's the map!

[HuffleClaw]

125. some stark realism there

time will tell what happens

i think the convention MIGHT produce a winning candidate.

at this point a veep spot for Obama makes sense

i really really wish Gore would do the right thing

[Douglas Carpenter]

126. "Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Sen. Obama a 62.5% chance of winning in November

(results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race (for the Democratic Party nomination) is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


____________________________________

Real Clear Politics Average: Obama 48.8/Clinton 42.0 --

Obama 46.8/McCain 44.5

links:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com /

The nomination poll is an average of the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and ABC News/Wash Post

link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

The general election poll averages the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post,POS/GQR and LA Times/Bloomberg

link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


________________________________________________________

---------------

Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.5% chance of winning in November

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party."

"In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 41% advantage over Clinton nationally."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. "

------------------

It is simply ludicrous to imagine that Sen. Clinton can catch up barring some cataclysmic event - according to the same exact polling firm; Rasmussen:

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"At the moment, Senator Clinton’s team is busily trying to convince Superdelegates and pundits that she is more electable than Barack Obama. For reasons discussed in a separate article, it doesn’t matter. Even if every single Superdelegate was convinced that the former First Lady is somewhat more electable than Obama, that is not enough of a reason to deny him the nomination.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama."

"Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Sen. Obama a 62.5% chance of winning in November "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race (for the Democratic Party nomination) is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."