Obama and Clinton's ability to win swing states

[OneDemsConscience]

To my mind, the single most convincing argument for nominating Clinton is that she can do better in the GE in decisive swing states with an older population--namely Penn, Ohio, and Florida.

Obama, however, seems to be stronger (at least among Dems) in swing states like Oregon, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Where else would he potentially do better than Clinton? Could he put CO, MO, VA, NC, or IO into play?

I read an opinion piece recently in Salon
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/index.html

that argues Obama is unlikely to win Florida and should look to win other states. I wonder though--if Obama is capable of mobilizing new voters in North Carolina can he not do the same thing in Florida?

I'm thinking Missouri and Iowa could be the decisive battleground states in a McCain-Obama contest.

[DFW]

1. Ohio, too

Although with Strickland as governor this time instead of Taft, and Blackwell
out as Ohio SecState, that state is already a different ball game from 2004.

If Obama opts for Strickland for VP (I wouldn't, but his name is being mentioned),
Ohio goes from maybe to probably.

[OneDemsConscience]

2. Will there be ballot iniatives this time?

As I remember last time there was a gay marriage measure on the ballet.

Ultimately we need a GOTV effort that exceeds theirs.

[DFW]

5. You remember correctly

That was Rove's idea, which, of course, the Taft/Blackwell machine was only too
happy to accommodate. That's what brought out all the "values" voters in rural areas.

That shouldn't be an issue this time, although a GOTV effeort will be crucial, as the RNC
is just as aware of this as we are.

[earthlover]

3. I think CO will be in play. Also VA, NV, NM, MO, IA

I think Obama will hold on to PA and MI, OH is a toss up, and FL is out of reach. I saw a recent poll with McCain only leading obama in Texas by 5 points!

I see lots of opportunities for OBama to win the electoral college.

Optimistic!

[Honeycombe8]

4. The new Dem. Party map does not include PA and FL. Get w/the program. nt

[Alexander]

7. Actually Obama does well against McSame in PA - and Florida is rigged.

Didn't you learn from 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006 that elections in Florida are about as corrupt as you can get?

[SoCalDem]

6. maps

minimal map..without MI, FL, PA, OH


choosing Napolitano & Barr/Paul are in the race


or the best case...again No OH, FL, PA (they are more than welcome to join in, though)

[PM7nj]

8. Obama will do fine in PA. nt

[FrenchieCat]

9. Great maps here....shows how Obama will win!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6015368

[cali]

10. Obama puts NM in play. In the new Rasmussen he's up

+9 over McCainiac. He puts VA in play. He'll win PA and has a decent shot at VA. He'll win IA and Wisconsin. Look, either of them would beat JMac in November. It's not just who the candidates are, it's the political zeitgueist. Clinton is done. Obama will be the nominee. He ran a superb campaign in the primaries, there is every reason to believe he'll do the same in the general.

[FrenchieCat]

11. I think that we can do it with the right combo!

She's a Governor.....of Kansas, and her father was the Governor......of Ohio.

She was born in Ohio and didn't leave till she was 26.

She's Catholic.

Sebelius was born and raised in a Catholic family in Cincinnati, Ohio. She attended the Summit Country Day School, a Roman Catholic secondary school, followed by Trinity Washington University, a Roman Catholic university in Washington, D.C., and later earned a Master of Public Administration degree from the University of Kansas. She moved to Kansas in 1974 at the age of 26, where she served for eight years as a representative in the Kansas Legislature and eight years as Insurance Commissioner before being elected governor.

Sebelius is the daughter of former Ohio governor John J. Gilligan, and thus they became the first father/daughter governor pair in the United States after her election.<3> Her husband K. Gary Sebelius<4> is a federal magistrate judge and the son of former U.S. Representative Keith Sebelius, a Republican. They have two sons. She also visits her childhood and current vacation home, located in Leland, Michigan, north of Traverse City, Michigan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius


Her dad:

John Joyce ("Jack") Gilligan (born March 22, 1921) is a Democratic politician from the U.S. state of Ohio who served as a U.S. Representative and the 62nd governor of Ohio.

Gilligan was born in Cincinnati, Ohio. He graduated from St. Xavier High School in 1939, the University of Notre Dame in 1943 and the University of Cincinnati in 1947, serving in between in the U.S. Navy during World War II in the Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean as a destroyer gunnery officer. He was awarded a Silver Star for gallantry in action at Okinawa.

After the war, Gilligan returned to Cincinnati to teach literature at Xavier University from 1948 to 1953. He also served as member of the Cincinnati city council from 1953 to 1963, and was a candidate for Ohio Congressman-at-Large in 1962. In 1964 he was elected to the Eighty-ninth Congress as a representative for Ohio's 1st district, serving from January 3, 1965-January 3, 1967. Gilligan lost his re-election bid to the Ninetieth Congress in 1966 to Republican Robert Taft Jr. after the Ohio General Assembly redrew his district to be more Republican. In 1968, Gilligan defeated sitting U.S. Senator Frank J. Lausche in the Democratic primary; however, he lost in the general election to Republican William B. Saxbe.

Gilligan won the election for the Governorship of Ohio in 1970, defeating Republican Roger Cloud, and serving from 1971 to 1975. Gilligan lost the governorship to Republican James A. Rhodes in a tight race in 1974. He subsequently served as the administrator of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) from 1977 to 1979. He served as director of the Institute for Public Policy from 1979 to 1986, and taught at the University of Notre Dame from 1986 to 1992. He also served as director of the civic issues forum at the University of Cincinnati School of Law.

In 1999, at age 78, Gilligan was elected to the Board of Education of the Cincinnati Public Schools. He chose not to stand for re-election when his term expired in 2007.

Gilligan is the father of four children, including Kathleen Sebelius, the current governor of Kansas. They constitute the first father-daughter pair of governors in the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_J._Gilligan

[jumptheshadow]

12. Florida

It's a huge mistake to write off Florida.

I hope Obama helps his case by:

1) Showing as much interest in older voters as in the young voters. Older voters will sink him in Florida and Pennsylvania unless he asks his younger followers to start respecting them and expands his outreach to them and their issues. Oh, and stop dividing the nation into who's "cool" and who's not.

2) Rethinking his shallow Republican-like remarks about Social Security being in trouble. That's something that George Bush was saying and the Democrats had creamed him on it. Don't waste a rare Democratic victory by repeating Republican talking points. Social Security, with some tweaking, is a solid program that should be in place for generations to come.