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**Sunday Delegate Update Thread ** Magic Number starts at 115 and 14.5 for Pelosi

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:39 AM
Original message
**Sunday Delegate Update Thread ** Magic Number starts at 115 and 14.5 for Pelosi
all sources from DemconWatch the most authoritative source of delegate matters

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

1) In another unusual move Clinton loses another pledged delegate


DC Ward 2 Councilmember Jack Evans announced minutes ago he’s throwing his support behind Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination. Evans had been a longtime Hillary Clinton supporter, co-chairing her campaign in the District. Earlier this month, he’d been elected by local Democrats to serve as an at-large delegate pledged to Clinton.
Asked to explain his move, Evans cited “just the momentum that was going behind it.” He says he left a message with the Clinton campaign about the decision but was not able to speak with the senator before making the announcement today. - Washington City Paper


Evans said he switched his support because Ward 2 overwhelmingly voted for Obama in the District primary in February. He said he is most concerned about having a Democratic White House. - Washington Post

Interesting to note that the Obama campaign is not using this or the other earlier pledged delegate switch in its delegate tally.

2) Here were Saturday's endorsements

5-17-08 - Added DNC Greg Pecoraro (MD) , new Kansas add-on Mark Parkinson (KS)# for Obama
- Colorado add-on Federico Pena (CO)# added for Obama

3) Nevada State Convention Obama +1 Clinton -1

Today’s news from Nevada confirms that there’s been “many a slip twixt the cup and the lip” when it comes to last January 19th’s declarations that Clinton had “won” the Nevada caucuses.

First came the reality-check that Obama’s greater support in the state’s rural counties provided him with one more delegate - thirteen in total - to Clinton’s twelve.

...Some Clinton supporters have begun to give up and, despite being elected delegates, stayed home, while the Obama grassroots organization proved tireless, taking no prisoners, and grabbing another Democratic National Convention delegate away from the tired Clinton camp, for a net gain of +2.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6014233


4)Among other intersting developments will be the 5 Add On Delegates from California

5)More Updates to follow below:
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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:42 AM
Response to Original message
1. So what's hillary's net on this?


She lost a couple today, so what's her net gain from wv turned into, like 3 or 4?

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:47 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. No she gained a 3 SDs since WV
In the meantime Obama has added about 30 delegates including pledged delegates, add ons, SDs and about 8 Edwards pledged delegates.
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kenny blankenship Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
2. " In another unusual move Clinton loses another pledged delegate"
She's just getting down to her fighting weight.
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 03:13 AM
Response to Reply #2
8. ROFLOL!!!
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #2
22. DUzy
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DerekJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
3. Hey Grantcart, something off topic a bit, assuming FL & MI gets seated as is, and let’s say
hypothetically that the magic number goes to 2209 or whatever the heck it will be in that case. Will Obama be able to still get to the Pelosi number after PR?!!

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Yes because he will pick up 20 Edwards Delegates and there will
be some compromise especially on 55 uncommitted MI delegates

Assuming that he gets Edwards Delegates and the Uncommitted MI delegates he would have a lead of 154 over Hillary IF they seated all her delegates.

That is why the flap over MI and FL are not that big a thing because his lead has grown so large that he will win anyway.

For example this week Obama picked up the endorsement of 4 SDs from Michigan that are not added into his totals.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
6. Kicked. Nice work, GC!!
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DerekJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 02:51 AM
Response to Original message
7. Hey GC, You still up?!
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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 03:20 AM
Response to Original message
9. The moment Kentucky is called
the Pelosi number will be pretty much assured. And you can bet the networks will call it exactly when the polls close.

My guess for the night is:

Clinton: 55
Obama: 48

Either way he's going to be over 1955, probably closer to 1975 if he gets some good superdelegate endorsements.
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kid a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 03:31 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. wow..your being liberal with the Obama take in KY
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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Too little or too much?
I'm guessing your meaning too little? I have a feeling it will be about the same as WV.
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Gore1FL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 09:13 AM
Response to Reply #11
16. I don't think he'll do quite that well.
but KY will put him over the 50% pledged delegate lead and likely then some. Everything after KY is gravy and pushes the number of SD's required to overturn months of contests further and further out of reach. (And that doesn't include the SD's who plan to go with the pledged delegate leader). After Tuesday and the SD's he gains between now and Friday, Clinton will need around 90% of all remaining delegates, both Super and pledged.
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intaglio Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 05:31 AM
Response to Original message
12. Kickerooni n/t
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
13. Obama is pulling away with the super endorsements.
It would take MAJOR stunners in BOTH states now for her to DREAM about retaking the pledged and unpledged delegate lead.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 08:25 PM
Response to Reply #13
28. 85.5% of the vote--THAT'S how hard she'll have to "stun" Obama on Tuesday
to prevent him from clinching the delegate lead.

:headbang:
rocknation
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 08:28 AM
Response to Original message
14. I wish the pledged delegates wouldn't switch
Only Edwards' pledged delegates should decalre a preference. Those pledged to Clinton should shut up and accept their pledge.

She'll use her own peldged delegates switchijng as an excuse to take it to the convention.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 10:03 PM
Response to Reply #14
32. She opened Pandora's Box by suggesting they could do it to benefit her.
She has no argument against them switching away from her, since she said they could switch TO her.

Hoisted on her petard. It's pretty sweet.

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Gore1FL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 09:07 AM
Response to Original message
15. I am glad the Obama campaign doesn't include them in the count
While there is a part of me that says "Go Team" when I hear this, the rest of me believes pledged delegates should stick to their pledges.
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Rob_4_Obama Donating Member (34 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 09:04 PM
Response to Reply #15
29. Exactly
And also this way the Obama campaign can retain the moral high ground if Hillary tries to steal his delegates. Good move to not count them.
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Kukesa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 10:10 AM
Response to Original message
17. Kick. As usual, terrific work, grantcart. n/t
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. thanks
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bigbrother05 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
18. K and R
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liberaldem4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
19. K & R!
:kick:
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WA98296 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
20. K&R
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
21. According to JED report calculations Obama only needs 13 unknown delegates to clinch
Edited on Sun May-18-08 12:06 PM by grantcart
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 07:00 PM
Response to Original message
24. TWO CALIFORNIA ADDONS FOR OBAM
Quay Hays (O) and Lou Paulson (O) selected during the Delegation Meeting
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Obama number should now be 114 and the Pelosi number is 15.5
does not count two HRC pledged delegates that have switched
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
26. CA add ons split Clinton 3 Obama 2
California Democrats on Sunday selected their final delegates to the party's national convention this summer, including five additional superdelegates.
The selections came during the state party's final meeting before the August convention in Denver. They did not change the dynamics of the presidential tally in the nation's most delegate-rich state.

Under party rules, five so-called "add-on" delegates were named by party Chairman Art Torres, bringing the total number of California superdelegates to 71. Three were pledged to Hillary Rodham Clinton and two to Barack Obama.

The additional superdelegates pledged for Clinton are: Carolyn Doggett, executive director of the California Teachers Association; former state Assemblyman Dario Frommer; and Dora Rubio, wife of Kern County Supervisor Michael Rubio, a former aide to state Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter.
The two pledged to Obama are William Quay Hays, an entrepreneur and developer from Pacific Palisades, and Lou Paulson, president of the California Professional Firefighters. - Mercury News


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Scurrilous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
27. K & R
:thumbsup:
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
30. Thanks grantcart K and R
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
31. Gobama!
NT!

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