The RCP Suffolk Poll Does NOT Show Obama Collapsing in Oregon. The other Post Is B.S.

[berni_mccoy]

Here is the link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Suffolk_Final_Oregon_Marginals.pdf

Note the following:

- Only 600 surveyed.
- Only 64% LIKELY TO VOTE; 32 % Already Voted

Now, Question 4 asks to choose between Clinton And Obama: 14% DID NOT RESPOND TO THE QUESTION (remember 32% already voted).

Now, Read QUESTION EIGHT

Thinking now about the General Election, regardless of which candidate you
personally support in the Democratic Primary, in a race against the
Republicans' presidential nominee, Senator John McCain, who do you believe is
more electable - Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

Obama Gets 52% While Clinton gets 28%

Whatever the polls say: Tomorrow, Obama will win the delegates he needs claim the nomination.

[quantass]

1. Very interesting points -- thanks Berni!

[papau]

31. yes -interesting - 2210 after Tuesday - amazing - or do we include Mich/FL as "GOP" states

[berni_mccoy]

37. You are Nuts. DNC has already said that EVEN IF FL&MI are seated, the 2026 Number WON'T change.

Give it up.

[hokies4ever]

51. Which means that their delegates won't count

The better argument would be that even when FL and MI delegations are seated, Hillary will still be in too big of a hole to win.

[berni_mccoy]

52. They will be seated. The use of the word "count" doesn't mean anything. You can't change the rules

in the middle of the game. Period. You can however, give the voters of those two states a voice. The DNC has to balance the rules of the election with the voice of the people. No one is going to be happy in the end, but at least they will have a say. If you want someone to focus your anger/disappointment on, it's the State Parties of those two states.

[hokies4ever]

53. they'll probably seat the delegates at 50%

Remember that this will be decided on 5/31. By that time, Obama will have a HUGE delegate lead, along with many more supers coming out for him. Therefore, I just makes sense to give FL and MI some delegates to count since it won't keep Obama from winning. I think it'll be some kind of an olive branch to immature Hillary supporters threatening to vote for McCain.

[Hola]

39. Not GOP states

Neither MI or FL will be 'GOP' states.

MI voted for Romney but no one cared or bothered with that state. FL did vote for McCain, but only 36% did so, BO got 33% of the dem vote, even though no one campaigned in the state, as a result FL was one of the few states in which Dem turnout was lower than GOP turnout.

BO will win FL if the Hill supporters just get up and support him!

[ekwhite]

42. He won't have 2210 until June 3rd

Nice try, though.

[Zachstar]

2. Thank you!

Let the other topic Sink. And don't forget to hit the Alert button if you see FlameBait and Libel on DU

[ellacott]

3. Thank you for the clarification

It's tiring to watch people make up stuff. The sad part is they know they ae making it up.

[Blue_Roses]

4. How does a OP get to stay on DU

if they continue to distort the facts about a Democratic candidate:shrug: That's something you see at "freepville." I just don't get it:crazy:
If-IF--they really are for Hillary, don't they realize that this divides more than unites? One would think.

Thanks for the accurate poll:)

[Zachstar]

8. If it is Obvious one is posting Libel.. Hit the Alert Button.

[catgirl]

35. There's a post out now approving the GOP attacks on Michelle Obama

Everyone, please alert the mods to that RW talking point post.

[fight4my3sons]

5. thanks!

[Maine-ah]

6. k/r

[BayouBengal07]

7. I thought it was fishy...

Down to a four point lead, with his largest rally of the campaign over the weekend?

[Zachstar]

9. Bingo!

It was an outliner at BEST.

[Tesha]

28. All those 75,000 people at the rally weren't home to answer their landlines.. ;-)

So they didn't get counted as Obama voters. ;)

Tesha

[SoxFan]

55. Suffolk does this all the time

Wait until about 48 hours before the vote, and release a set of numbers that spell doom for Obama. This is the fourth or fifth time they've done this.

I do have a question. Suffolk's pollster is a guy named David Paleologos. There was a prominent Mass. politician named Nick Paleologos, who served as a state rep and ran for lieutenant governor in 1990. I'm wondering if there is a family connection.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

10. The other post is a McCain talking point from someone who won't support the Democratic nominee.

Accept it for what it is: spin for McCain's 2008 campaign and Hillary's 2012 campaign.

[cali]

11. Of course the other thread was wrong.

Look to the source of the thread. And to look to other predictions by that poster. Miserable failures, one and all.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

12. Another explanation: a huge chunk of Obama's base dispersed after finals

Hopefully they voted before they cruised town. They'd certainly be harder to locate to poll now.
We're talking a couple hundred thousand students.

My guess is they voted and that many weren't polled. Obama by 10 at least.

[Adelante]

16. Good God, you mean that rally could have been bigger?

:wow:

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

19. ha! maybe they polled while 75K of his supporters were out supporting him!

[GarbagemanLB]

29. I'm an Oregonian, and class is still in session for a few more weeks (for all the state schools at

least).

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

40. thanks, Chief. Alright, that theory's shot.

[Arugula Latte]

45. Well, Lewis & Clark got out in early May.

So there's that. :)

[Maine-ah]

13. kick

[Window]

14. K/R.

:kick:

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

15. OP needs an edit? "Question 4 asks to choose between Hillary And Clinton:"

that doesn't look quite right.

[berni_mccoy]

18. Good catch. Thanks.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

17. Rassmussen has quit polling r/e Clinton vs Obama

because they consider it over.

[PBS Poll-435]

50. No. They Haven't.

They will quit "in the near future."

They have data today.

[MonkeyFunk]

20. He's not going to get 2025 delegates tomorrow

no matter how many times you people say he'll win enough to secure the nomination.

[Zachstar]

26. Funk he is going to get to a point where it becomes impossible for Clinton to retake the lead

And because Clinton has been LOSING delegates not gaining them through her "There is no such thing as a pledged delegate" That is the point where several BIG name democrats will endorse and multiple outlets of Info will call it for Obama.

Therefore it makes Clinton going to the convention without exiting look like the laughing stock of the democratic party.

It's Over

[ekwhite]

46. He may not have 2025 tomorrow

but he will most certainly have a majority of the pledged delegates.

[MonkeyFunk]

54. Yes

and it's never been the case that having the majority of the pledged delegates means you win the nomination.

For all the bitching about Clinton supporters wanting to "change the rules", I see a lot of Obama supporters trying to do exactly that.

[qazplm]

47. no, but he's sitting at 1911 right now

he will get abobut half of the 100 or so delegates up for grabs tomorrow so that takes him to 1961.

Let's further assume everything else holds, and he ONLY picks up say another 39 delegates from PR, SD and MT.

That gets him to 2000. Given the way SDs have consistently gone for him 2-3 or more per day. He will reach 2025 in due course and beyond once Michigan and Florida are counted in.

Time to warm up the large singer.

[MonkeyFunk]

56. I'm not saying he's not likely to win the nomination

But a lot of people here are pretending that he will have secured the nomination tomorrow - and that's not the case.

[Zachstar]

21. Kick

[grantcart]

22. thanks Bernie

[madrchsod]

23. when 75,000 people show up to see obama

and how many have shown up for hillary?...it`s not rocket science to see that obama has captured the the stage.

[Zachstar]

27. Bingo!

[PBS Poll-435]

32. Rally attendance does not necessarily equal success in state.

How many brazillion people showed up in Philly for the candlelight vigil?

err. Rally?

[roguevalley]

44. rendell said that obama will take penn in the GE. rendell.

[PBS Poll-435]

49. (Primary Success)

Just because a Brazillion people crossed over from Vancouver, WA to participate in the Obama Oregon rally....

:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

24. Suffolk was in the field yesterday - when 75,000 avid Obama supporters were not home...

to answer the phone. I wonder how many call-backs Suffolk does. Weekend sampling is dodgy anyway. This poll is an outlier. Obama will win OR by 15+.

[here_is_to_hope]

25. Thats it in a nutshell....n/t

[L0oniX]

30. The other thread is from a consistant bull shit spew'r.

[Douglas Carpenter]

33. Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 49.0/Clinton 41.8//Obama 47.2/McCain 43.4

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 49.0/Clinton 41.8

The nomination poll is an average of the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and ABC News/Wash Post

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

----------

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 47.2/McCain 43.4

The general election poll averages the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post,POS/GQR and LA Times/Bloomberg

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189"

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[lumberjack_jeff]

34. ... so stop saying that!

I'm reminded of Bob Beaudelang.

[berni_mccoy]

36. Stop saying what?

[lumberjack_jeff]

38. Random neuron fire, I guess. I often do free association when reading subjects.

"The RCP Suffolk Poll Does NOT Show Obama Collapsing in Oregon! So stop saying that!" is very Beaudelang-esque.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/bob/04/116.html

:D

[thewiseguy]

41. More than 50% of the respondents were over the age of 55

Is that typical for Oregon's voting bloc?

[MadBadger]

43. Oregon will look like NC, where they told us it was closing too.

[goclark]

48. Is that the one they just said on MSNBC?

They made a big deal out of it.

Now someone from Kentucky is saying he didn't campaign there other than 1 time and he sent Michelle 2 times.

It's so hard to know what to believe.

Seems they are SPINNING for HC this morning IMO.

They let it stand when she in on the clip saying she is winning the popular vote.

FL? MI?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

57. ever thought maybe he's letting her win those states?

He could run lots of commercials and beats her, then they complain:

we were outspent, and he only beat us by one point, or he only brought
his points up 20% or some other crap.


They would accuse him of beating up on her.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

58. Hey, let them think she's closing.

They've had their hopes crushed time and time again over the least three months. Let it happen again.