Obama's Oregon Lead Undermines Idea of "White Working Class Problem"

[powergirl]

Those pictures in Portland of 75,000 people - most of whom are white, by my own visual estimation - should be proof enough. But if you need more actual facts, here they are. Also, if Obama can't win the white vote, then why has he won the most white voters in all of the primaries thus far? AA make up 16% of our population. Obama has a wider and deeper coalition than Clinton. A tapestry of we Americans have voted for him because he will be the best president of the United States that we have had in over 40 years. Can I have an Amen!



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/19/how-oregon-could-help-oba_n_102507.html

The popular refrain within political circles is that Tuesday's Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon will provide yet another demonstration of Sen. Barack Obama troubles among working class white voters. The Illinois Democrat, after all, is staring down a major loss in the former and a comfortable win in the latter.

It's an incomplete if not misleading analysis. If anything, socioeconomic statistics show that Oregon, as much as Kentucky and perhaps even more so than Ohio, is a state comprised of the white, middle-to-low income individuals who work in a struggling but still important manufacturing sector. Indeed, if the Senator were to win in the Beaver State on Tuesday - and all signs point to a victory - much of it will be on the backs of the very voters whom pundits believe have written him off.

The population of Oregon, according to census estimates is roughly 3.7 million, 90 percent of who are white and 1.9 percent of who are black. Eighteen percent of all jobs are manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the median household income in 2004 was $42,568.

Compare those numbers to Ohio, the rust belt state where Obama's failure to connect with white working class voters emerged as a popular campaign theme. There are, according to census estimates, 11.4 million people in Ohio, 85 percent of who are white and 12 percent of who are black - much less homogeneous than Oregon. Slightly less than 15 percent of the states jobs are manufacturing (less than Oregon) and the average median household income is $43,371 (more than Oregon). Kentucky, where Sen. Hillary Clinton is likely to have a major victory on Tuesday, is quite similar. The Bluegrass state has an estimated population of 4.2 million, 90 percent of who are white and 7.5 percent of who are black - again less homogeneous than Oregon. Less than 17 percent of the jobs are manufacturing and the median household income in 2004 was $37,000.

more at the link above

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[BlooInBloo]

1. And Idaho, and, and, and.

[knowledgeispwr]

2. and Minnesota and Iowa and Nebraska and Maine and Kansas and...

eom

[BlooInBloo]

25. :) Thanks - didn't feel like looking them all up.

[Boz]

26. It is not a white working class problem it is an Appalachian Bubble problem

They arent explicit racist, they are only racist in that they do not accept change easily.

It isn't that he is a black man, it is that a black man would be something too untried and new.

There is a reason you can drive into parts huge parts of Appalachia and drive "right into the past" life stuck in the 30s

Thats what Obama has to overcome and he has to overcome it in a 30s way, whistlestop campaigning.

[msallied]

33. That's actually a very good point. n/t

[Beregond2]

48. I think you've hit the nail on the head there.

[Arugula Latte]

32. and Wisconsin.

:)

[panader0]

3. Amen, amen, amen.

[anonymous171]

4. K&R

[NJSecularist]

5. One latte liberal state doesn't a trend make.

You can't choose one outlier and then use that as a proof that Obama doesn't have trouble with these voters.

[virtualobserver]

10. but 33 wins does a nomination make

[hokies4ever]

50. ZING!

:rofl:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

14. Neither does WV.

Notice I didn't resort to any moonshine or incest stereotypes.

[cali]

17. lol. as the OP clearly points out Oregon is not a "latte" liberal

state- anymore than Vermont is or Maine or Wisconsin. Hey, Jerseyite, did you see the SUSA and PPP polls for OR released today? Obama up 13 and 19 pts respectively.

:rofl:

[Starbucks Anarchist]

19. What about the white working-class voters in Wisconsin?

You know, the overwhelmingly white state whose primary Obama won?

Two "outliers" kind of defeats itself as an argument.

[NJSecularist]

22. Two states out of around 20-30 states is the definition of an outlier. n/t

[Starbucks Anarchist]

24. Then let's look at some of the white states he won:

IA, VT, ME, ND, KS, UT, CT AND DE.

Some of those were primaries. I took your anti-caucus position into account.

[msallied]

35. Don't forget Washington.

Clearly NJS is an expert on ALL states. There is a befitting stereotype for all of them.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

36. Good catch.

[muryan]

38. Your math is faulty

but so is your candidate's, so it cant be helped.

[CreekDog]

28. no other state's working class whites have supported Obama?

remember, you are trying to maintain credibility as you answer this question.

[msallied]

34. Wow. So all of Oregon is latte liberals.

Oh wait, they're part of the "granola belt." I get your talking points confused sometimes.

[Qutzupalotl]

45. That is an ignorant fucking stereotype.

Like all the hunters take down their elk and then go for cappuccinos.

[eridani]

46. Not frue for fishermen. Sign in Gearhart, OR bait and tackle shop

Live Bait and Espresso

[thewiseguy]

6. Maybe the whites in Oregon dont work?

[powergirl]

8. Maybe they have no "class"

:rofl:

[Thrill]

7. I don't think he has a problem. Its just that people in KY and WV love Bill Clinton

And Hillary gets those votes

[zulchzulu]

9. This info is NOT what the News Punditry want to see...

Any discussion of this information would absolutely SKEWER the notion that Obama doesn't appeal to working class whites. Look at the states where he overwhelmingly won. There are a lot of white people who voted for him...

[shenmue]

11. Except for the fact that Clinton leads in the popular vote.

Love how you Obama worshipers are concluding there's all this public support for you, when it's really just the superdelegates, and the actual public in majority supports Clinton.

If we actually had an electoral system without this delegate nonsense, you'd be out of the picture.

Instead, you're going to give the public a candidate they don't want.

Clinton's case is that she should be there because more people cast votes for her. More actual warm bodies in the ballot box, which in turn inveighs heavily for her success in November (if the party would put its nomination where its mouth is).

You don't consider that important, I guess. What counts with you is this in-party percentage game.

:eyes:

Not much of a victory for your side, but look at all the fanfare.

The truth is, and continues to be, that the Obama campaign is all noise and no substance, and receives far more attention than it deserves.

You don't have the popular vote. Good luck with that.

[virtualobserver]

15. the magically constructed "popular vote" in hillary fantasy land

[anonymous171]

16. No she doesn't. And even if she did, Wolfson says that this is a "race for delegates"

[Warren DeMontague]

20. Don't you ever get tired of spewing these total bullshit talking points?

She is NOT "ahead in the popular vote". Not even close.

You want to talk about "giving the public a candidate they don't want", Hillary Clinton was supposed to be "inevitable". All the blathering media talking heads bought her campaign's gibberish that she was a shoo-in. And she LOST. To someone named "Barack Hussein Obama", no less. She LOST.

Oh, the public doesn't want Obama? Who the fuck were all those people who came out in Portland to see him, if not "the public"?

She Lost. Get Over It.

Obama is GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE. If you're interested in having a Democrat in the White House or anything except the Clintons' precious egos, you'll stop spewing bullshit and reconcile yourself to that fact.

[Webster Green]

21. "If we actually had an electoral system without this delegate nonsense"

You want to change the rules towards the end of the game because you are losing, right?

Fuck that! :thumbsdown:

[Warren DeMontague]

27. Actually, there wasn't REALLY supposed to be an actual series of Primaries.

Everybody *knew* Queen Inevitable was supposed to be the Nominee, since it was "HER TURN".

This is why her die-hard supporters are so mad. They think it was "stolen" because it was hers all along by default.

[Webster Green]

31. They're gonna really whine when they vote for Gramps and lose..

Obama is going to kick their sorry asses again! :rofl:

[neverforget]

39. catapulting the BS

[Turn CO Blue]

47. Only way she "wins" the popular vote is to omit: NV, IA, WA & ME

FOUR WHOLE STATES' worth of voters being disenfranchised by the "Clinton popular vote method" of counting, yet the Clinton campaign manages to count the two states that don't count.

Why do you hate voters in IA, NV, WA and ME??

Go ahead. Get a pencil. I dare you! Count ALL the votes, INCLUDING ALL THE CAUCUS STATES, and MI and FL, and you'll see that Clinton is still far, far behind in votes.

[Qutzupalotl]

12. "White working class" has been used as a euphemism for racist.

Oregon's (very) white population has similar demographics to states like WV and OH but has far less antagonism between the races. Oregonians have had so little interactions with blacks, that they seem to lack the prejudice borne of prior experience (by that I mean compounded antagonism). I grew up in the South, and hated that racial undercurrent--you're supposed to chuckle when your friend says something horrible about blacks. It's a different world out here, and very refreshing.

Eugene used to be a haven for the Klan, but you sure wouldn't know it to look at it today.

[msallied]

37. That's because states like OR and WA have a lot of Asians.

Where a lot of states have strong black populations, we have high minority Asian populations. It's a different paradigm.

[boppers]

51. Hey, come up here and say that!

:)

I live in N/NE PDX, an area I intentionally chose because it was *less* homogeneous than other areas of town... we got lots of colors, cultures, languages, and customs. After spending a year and a half in the south (Atlanta, Chamblee neighborhood), I just couldn't bear the thought of moving away from all that variety.

So, yes, while there are areas in Oregon where you can go hours only seeing people of European descent, there are also areas where you can't go for more than 20 minutes without seeing at least 20-30 different "nations" of people from everywhere else on the globe, and some lovely cross-culturalism making it all work out.

[Johnny__Motown]

13. I'm sorry but it is a.... Southern White Working Class Problem....

Racial tensions are still more pronounced in some areas of our country than in others. That is simply a fact... sorry but it is.

[PM7nj]

29. John Kerry had a southern white problem too.

So did Al Gore. So did Bill Clinton (although to a lesser extent). I think Kerry got about 10% of the white vote in Mississippi. Democrats have had a "southern white problem" since the 60s.

[Johnny__Motown]

30. In the primaries?

[PM7nj]

41. Eh, good point.

I am not sure about that.

[BeyondGeography]

18. Obama has an Appalachian white working class problem

Or, better yet, they have an Obama problem.

It will be interesting to see if he chooses to address the issue with his running mate choice (Strickland, Webb, maybe Schweitzer) or looks to emphasize other groups (Sebelius, Richardson...).

[msallied]

40. I honestly think he'll chose a standard whitebread male running mate.

It'll balance the ticket to help generate as much of this apparent "white working class" issue as possible.

[powergirl]

42. Maybe a military type

Clark, some other supreme allied commander type dude. :patriot:

[liberaldem4ever]

23. K&R!!!

:kick:

[Duder]

43. 15 Whitest States in America...

by population, and by who won the primary...

Maine BARACK

Vermont BARACK

West Virginia HILLARY

New Hampshire HILLARY (BARACK lost by 2.6%)

Iowa BARACK

North Dakota BARACK

Montana

Kentucky

Wyoming BARACK

Idaho BARACK

South Dakota

Minnesota BARACK

Wisconsin BARACK

Nebraska BARACK

Indiana HILLARY (BARACK lost by 1.1% to 2%)

http://www.barackoblogger.com/2008/05/15-whitest-states-in-america.html

[Ian_rd]

44. Except that "working-class whites" doesn't actually mean "working-class whites"

In political speech, it has always meant "white racists." Obama certainly has a problem with racist voters, but not working class voters in general.

[democracy1st]

49. thanks