Prediction: What will turnout be in November?

[Zynx]

In 2000, turnout was 105,417,204 or something like that. What do you believe it will be this year?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. Huge

I know of several who haven't voted in a while or have never voted who are going to vote this time. Folks seem to understand the importance of putting Kerry in the White House.

[NMDemDist2]

2. agree with "huge"

i think it will be the biggest turnout in decades

[Warpy]

4. I don't think the overall total will change that much

since a lot of the culture warriors out there would rather die than vote for a Massachusetts liberal (who isn't libersl) will probably stay home. A lot of folks out there know in their hearts that Bush is a total disaster, and when it comes right down to it, I think they'll stay home rather than voting third party as a protest.

[AndyTiedye]

17. We should be so lucky

> a lot of the culture warriors out there would rather die than vote for
> a Massachusetts liberal (who isn't libersl) will probably stay home

That lot will be turning out almost 100% for Bush*.

We need everybody else to vote for Kerry.

[redstateblues]

19. TN Has A Mass Librul Gov- Elected by Repubs Crossing Over

Phil Bredesen has very high popularity ratings 70 to 80%

[GmoneyOwnsAll]

25. So you think TN may go blue this time?

Man I hope so, I live in TN. :)

[freetobegay]

3. More than the media is willing to admit!

[Zynx]

5. I personally am betting on 115,000,000.

[HawkerHurricane]

6. HugeHuge.

I mean, every Liberal will be out, every pissed off Moderate, and every true Conservative will be voting against BushCo.

And the Religious Reich, NeoConMen and thier Dupes will be out in force trying to prevent BushCo's fall.

I look forward to a record turnout, and Bush to lose, 60-40 in the popular vote, with worse numbers in the electoral vote.

[gcomeau]

7. 61-63% (edit)

You heard it here first.

[Zynx]

8. I was thinking more around 54-55%, but if it's 61-63% that would be huge.

[trotsky]

9. Yeah, even with the energy and motivation against Bush

I highly doubt we will crack 60%. Which is sad - millions of people have died for our democracy, the very LEAST we can do is exercise our fundamental right to vote.

[Zynx]

10. Maybe we should make this system like this:

Currently, more people can vote in a state with fewer electoral votes than one with more electoral votes, meaning that fewer people decide more electoral votes. A good example of this is in 2000 when more people voted in Wisconsin than in Georgia.

What we could do is appropriate electoral votes according to the turnout of each state, thereby incentivizing people to come out in larger numbers.

[trotsky]

12. That's an interesting idea.

First, I would be curious to know if we had had such a system in 2000, what the outcome would have been. I'm going to guess that Gore would have fared much better, since states with higher voter turnout (like Minnesota and Wisconsin) tend to vote Dem.

But second, I don't know that it would motivate many of the people who don't vote now. It would definitely fire up the parties to register & get people to the polls though.

And third, a sad but true fact of modern American life is that some people simply do not get the chance to vote. They may even WANT to vote, but if they're working a job (or two) with odd hours, with maybe some small children to take care of, there may not be a chance to get to the polls.

[Zynx]

14. I also think we should have two or three days of voting.

That way snafus at voting precincts can be fixed.

[trotsky]

18. Oh yeah, definitely.

Preferably have one of them be on the weekend, or maybe make a national voting holiday?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Jimmy Carter Beat Ford 50% -49% And He Had Everything Going For Him....

The Pukes lost a gazillion seats in the 74 midterms, Ford pardoned Nixon who gave him his job, the economy was in the toilet... Carter had a 33% lead at one time....


This election will be close....

[Zynx]

13. Carter was a fairly weak candidate.

He should have won by a lot more.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Why Was He A Weak Candidate...

He rose from relative obscurity....


He made some gaffes which I'm too tired to elaborate on but he ran a decent campaign....


The last Dem to get >60% was nearly forty years ago.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. The Last Dem To Break 50% Was Nearly Thirty Years Ago...(nt)

[TruthIsAll]

23. 61% is the alltime biggest landslide. It will never happen.

See my post below. Its Kerry by 10 million votes. That's 53-54%.

[GiovanniC]

28. Turnout, Not Margins

Turnout will be very high... I don't think 60% is completely out of reach this year. And the higher the turnout, the bigger Kerry's margin of victory, in my opinion.

[Meritaten1]

20. Huge

This is such an important election!

[TruthIsAll]

21. I will guess 116mm: 62 kerry (53.4%), 52 bush (44.8%) , 2 other

there.

i said it.

[blue neen]

22. I like your guess.

I've never felt so energized over an election. I can't wait until the actual day is here.

[jackieforthedems]

24. Huge, But What About Diebold?

I think the turnout will be HUGE, but should we be worried about the fact that Diebold is a huge Bush supporter? Diebold is the company that makes the voting machines. I'm a little worried about that.

[GmoneyOwnsAll]

26. Stop reminding me....

Im terrified as it is after what Kerry said the other day. God help us all.

[jackieforthedems]

27. Reply

I know. I think, though, that if anything is fishy with this Presidential election, that all hell may just break loose. We still have to be optimistic.

[michigandem2]

29. i think its going to be UNHEARD of...

I have no numbers..no statistics but people remember 2000 and I think most don't want it to even be close..I know lots of people who are revved up and who are goign to vote who usually don't vote OR haven't voted EVER....

[Killarney]

30. 55-58%

[Jacobin]

31. About the same

If there were a clear anti-invasion candidate on the ballot, it would bump 10%.