Gazette State Poll: Obama holding sizable margin

[curious one]

source: Billings Gazette

lilnk: http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/05/25/news/state/26-statepoll_s.txt

snip:

Barack Obama has a big lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in Montana's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, a Gazette State Poll shows.

Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Montana and South Dakota have the nation's last Democratic presidential primaries. With the prolonged battle continuing for the Democratic nomination, Montana's usually ignored late primary has attracted unprecedented interest from Obama and Clinton.

snip:

In a closer look at the Democratic poll primary results, Obama leads Clinton among every subgroup except in Eastern Montana.

Obama is ahead of Clinton among men by 58 percent to 33 percent and among women by 48 percent to 36 percent, the poll showed.

Voters younger than 50 favor Obama by 56 percent to 30 percent, while those 50 and older back Obama 49 percent to 39 percent, it showed. The rest are undecided.

In the 18 counties in Western Montana, Obama holds a commanding 62 percent to 25 percent lead over Clinton, the poll showed. These counties include Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli and Silver Bow.

Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 40 percent in the 38 counties designated as Eastern Montana in the poll. These counties include Cascade and Yellowstone.

"Obviously, Obama is the favorite," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "We're seeing the same patterns we're seeing elsewhere. His strength is with male voters and voters under 50. Clinton does better but still trails with voters over 50 and with women."


snip:

The poll was completed about two weeks before the June 3 election.

"That's a lot of time for numbers to change," Coker said. "I'd be surprised if Obama didn't win Montana. The margin might tighten up."

[Colobo]

1. He's gonna win big over there.

[MadBadger]

3. Hey Katz, Obama showed up in PR...what do yout hink will happen now?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Obviously it's the elitist blacks putting him over the top there.

Montana is not a good representation of the United WHITE WORKING CLASS States of America.

[CoffeeCat]

4. Yep, just like in my state...

...of Iowa.

That large contingent of elitist blacks put him over the top.

:eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

6. And mine too!

Utah :)

[ericgtr]

8. Same in Oregon with our huge 1.9% black population

:D

[cali]

10. and mine, Vermont, where we're even whiter than Oregon

and, I believe, poorer. Despite the stupid latte liberal meme (this is the state that meme was developed for), there are actually very few "latte liberals" in Vermont- and here, Obama beat hilly by 21.

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. another state full of African-Americans and latte drinking elites

[aaaaaa5a]

7. Those numbers are because

I'm sure he's taking 9 out of 10 black votes in the state. This will offset his losses among the working class whites in Montana!


Still, I need to look at the cross-tabs of the poll before I will declare it legit.

I need to make sure the polling sample has African Americans fairly represented. And anything outside of an 85/15 split, is an area where he could outperform the poll among this large Montana demographic!


I heard Hillary already wrote the state off, because like in Mississippi black voters don't really count. And everyone new the demographics favored him. He was expected to do well in this state.

[earthlover]

14. Hillary has written Montana off, you say?

There's always future states. Oh wait! There AREN'T!!!!! On to Mighty Puerto Rico with all those electoral votes. Oh wait! There AREN'T ANY! This race is so over!

[rucky]

15. I hear the NAACP is moving its headquarters to Missoula.

[PM7nj]

9. Woohoo! Go Montana!

I knew that .4% Black population would put him over the top!

[POAS]

11. It's probably voter suppression of

the white voters in Montana by the religious zealots in the "Obamanation" Cult!

[davidpdx]

12. "Damn white liberal latte loving, snot nose little punks"

"Why don't they vote for me, I'm ENTITLED TO IT", says Hillary.

[Perry Logan]

13. As the Democratic Party drives merrily over a cliff...

Gallup: Clinton leads McCain and Obama

Clinton leads McCain 49-45.
McCain leads Obama 47-45.

Rasmussen:

Clinton leads McCain by 3
McCain leads Obama by 2

Newsweek:

Clinton leads McCain 48-44
McCain and Obama tie 44-44
http://hillary1000.wordpress.com/2008/05/26/bill-clinton-has-never-seen-a-candidate-treated-so-disrespectfully-just-for-running/#more-572

[u2spirit]

16. Hi I'm Perry Logan and this is my new book

"Beating a dead, inconsequential horse"

[ecdab]

17. Clearly the Democratic party should choose a nominee based upon GE polls

that are within the MOE 6 month out. :sarcasm:

The Democratic primary already has shown Clinton had no where to go but down and that Obama can run a better campaign.

Clinton was a strong candidate - but WAS is the operative word in that statement.