Final Score: Obama 343, McCain 195.

[kpete]

What's scariest for McCain is how few states would fall into a "Certain McCain" column, meaning that regardless of things like who Obama selects as running mate, these states are not moving out of the Republican column this year.

Even states like Arkansas, Nebraska, Kansas, Georgia, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Texas are not the locks that they've been in recent elections. And keep in mind that McCain is still having trouble getting over 50 percent in his home state of Arizona. I'm not suggesting any of these states are going to flip, but it doesn't take much political experience to wonder what might happen if Obama selects Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), John Edwards (D-NC), Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), or former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) as his running mate.

In the end, I very much believe that November is going to be a blow-out for Obama.

.......................

In the end, I very much believe that November is going to be a blow-out for Obama.

We're going to see record turnout among African-Americans and young and new voters. The ultimate financial disparity between the two campaigns will be enormous. The Obama ground game will exceed the size and scope of anything we've previously seen. The Republican brand is going to remain very toxic. McCain will lose more independents on the war issue alone than we expect. Americans very badly want change and Democrats will be more energized this year than they have in a generation.

It's gonna be ugly. Here's my prediction:



And I don't think Obama will lose FL, MT, SD, NE, MO, GA, or SC by big margins...

Final Score: Obama 343, McCain 195.

more maps and predictions:
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=2292

[BlooInBloo]

1. Depending on who the VP is, either NM or MT could be ours too.

[Gore1FL]

4. Not to mention MO

I still think SC will be closer than a lot of people suspect.

[TheDoorbellRang]

26. I agree. I think MO will be very much in play

I was still living in MO in 2006 when Claire McCaskill beat the Republican incumbent, Talent. And when we moved last year, Governor Blunt(R) was very much despised. Missouri could be a pleasantly blue surprise this fall.

[Gore1FL]

28. I just wish we were energized in 2004

to get rid of that dumb-assed Kit Bond.

[Terran]

67. Blunt is still hated here

I don't know about the legislature, but we're going to see a pretty big wipe for the republicans here generally this year. I think Obama will win Missouri, narrowly.

[PBS Poll-435]

2. ROFL

Alaska, but not Missouri.

North Carolina but not Florida.

Indiana but not West Virginia.

Wow.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[Gore1FL]

6. I agree he could very well take MO

But IN and NC are clearly up for grabs.

[Hippo_Tron]

37. If you look at the current polls that's what they are showing

Although I don't put too much weight into May polls as I've stated earlier.

[PseudoIntellect]

57. Sorry, but Obama is much stronger in NC than in FL. Same with IN and WV, clearly.

[mkultra]

69. truly funny. FL is in the bag too once the campaing begins

[Township75]

3. Who is Obama's running mate in your prediction?

Same with McCain.

I could see MI going red with Mitt on the ticket, or MO going blue depending on the ticket...same for MN and CO.

[d_b]

5. as a lifelong alaskan

I'm very optimistic about his chances here. It will ultimately come down to turnout turnout turnout.

[4_Legs_Good]

12. I'm really excited about the possibility of Alaska going blue

That would be totally awesome!

David

[Philipsanchez]

14. I believe Obama will do well generally, but will lose Alaska by about 20%

Because Alaska is very conservative.

[dems_rightnow]

15. Very conservative, I agree

I don't think Alaska is seriously in play, and was rather surprised to see it here.

[d_b]

17. compared to what?

The Alaska Republican party (the corrupt bastards club) is in deep shit. Uncle Ted is more than likely going to lose his senate seat. Alaska is a pretty conservative place, but it's more the libertarian variety; not the sieg heil Bush can do no wrong variety.

I wish Obama would come to Anchorage.

[Cha]

18. I hope he does too... He could if he had

enough time.

[Philipsanchez]

20. Kerry lost by 25% and Gore by 31%

I don't recall a state changing winners after having such large lead.

[d_b]

24. totally different political climates

completely different candidates.

[Yuma001]

55. The candidates are not "completely different". In fact, they are very similar

Kerry and Obama are very liberal. Kerry and Obama have similar support from whites and blacks.
Obama polls no better than Kerry at this point in 2004, regarding the GE.

The claim that Obama is somewhat soo much better than Kerry is baseless.

Keep dreaming that Alaska will go to Obama.

[d_b]

81. "very liberal" means nothing (alaska isn't kentucky)

and to the rest of your nonsense, provide some data.

keep dreaming that 2008 is 2004.

[Alexander]

62. Polls show a 5-point McCain lead in Alaska...

Plus Begich is leading Ted "series of tubes" Stevens in the Senate race, which will help our prospects there.

Alaska's more libertarian than conservative. I could see Obama keeping it close.

[Jim Lane]

33. What about Barr?

My stereotype of Alaska has been that libertarianism is strong. Is it possible that Bob Barr, on the Libertarian line, would draw off enough votes to let Obama win the state with less than a majority?

[d_b]

43. could very well happen.

Ron Paul had a lot of support here. Truth is, it's going to be an uphill battle for Obama either way.

My hope is that a lot of those jaded Repiblican voters just stay home.

[Zosima]

50. Do you think that Barr's candidacy is likely to have any

impact on the general election? I would love to think he would pull votes from McCain, but I've yet to see anything to suggest this. I'd love to see some links if you can direct me to any. Cheers.

[Jim Lane]

84. Good question about Barr

In 2004 the Libertarian candidate, Badnarik, finished fourth, close behind Nader, with about 0.3% of the popular vote. Badnarik was essentially an unknown; he had never held elective office. Barr, by contrast, was elected to the U.S. House four times, and has also been a prominent polemicist since he left office.

Barr has some credibility with portions of the right, many of whom also dislike McCain. Does that mean he can pull enough votes to make a difference? We can only hope.

But I'll venture a prediction: Barr will outpoll Nader this year.

[patrice]

7. won't happen if WE don't WORK for it. nt

[grantcart]

8. What's scariest for McCain = Obama gets the nod the party comes together

and has a couple of good weeks announces a great VP and then all the big money in the Republican party decides to take a pass on McCain and try and save a few seats and he has to take matching money.

[4_Legs_Good]

9. I'd love to see Missouri, Florida and one other Southern State added to the list

And I'd like Texas to be competitive.

Seriously, after Katrina how the hell can LA remain Republican? I don't get it.

I really like your prediction, and I bet it ends up being pretty accurate.

David

[stevietheman]

72. LA remains Republican because Rove/Bush forced out a lot of Democratic voters. n/t

n/t

[Philipsanchez]

10. Wow. You have Obama winning Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina

Very optimistic. Although VA and NC are not far-fetched.

[AwakeAtLast]

35. I don't think IN is far-fetched either.

Only time will tell, though.

:hi:

[caraher]

46. Last time Indiana went with the Democrat was 1964

I just don't see that happening this year unless McCain screws up so badly that even the mainstream media must report it...

But it is a nice idea!

[gristy]

11. Sweet!

GoBama! Go Dems! :thumbsup:

[WeDidIt]

13. I don't think he'll lose TX by large margins, either.

and with Bob Barr on the Libertarian ticket, he could turn all those states blue.

[gristy]

16. Texas will be tough, but hopefully close enough that McCain will need to spend time and $ there

Go Texas! Go Blue!

[Lisa0825]

25. Even Cornyn is in trouble in Texas!

We might just take this state back!

[TahitiNut]

19. Mississippi and Louisiana aren't out of the question, either.

If it's Obama/Clark vs. McCain/Romney, I can see them going barely blue.

[Philipsanchez]

21. I think Mississippi is absolutely out of the question

Mississippi is an ultra-conservative states. Yes, the Dem. party just won a House seat there, but it was won by a conservative Democrat.

[PM7nj]

29. Mississippi is 36% Black.

It could happen if there is major turnout on our side and weak turnout for the GOP. It is unlikely, but not "absolutely of the question."

[Zynx]

59. So long as the Republicans continue to pull 85% of the white vote it is impossible.

That's what they do in MS.

[Lerrad]

22. Whats this, you gave Ohio to Obama. No way n/t

[Gore1FL]

30. I think people of Ohio generally want to have jobs and schools.

[Lerrad]

31. Yea I live in Ohio ...

... The capital Columbus in Franklin County and some of the other major city's like Cleveland and Dayton will go Democratic, but the souther counties and out lying areas will go Republican. My prediction is a McCain win overall.

[Gore1FL]

32. I can;t come from the standpoint of resident as you can.

I just don;t see what McCain's argument will be.

[rg302200]

34. Negative

I live in S.E. Ohio, very conservative and very closed minded....I didn't think Obama or Clinton had a chance to win Ohio but over the past two weeks I have talked to a lot of independent leaning republicans and republicans that are going to vote for Obama (but they won't vote for Clinton). I think Obama will end up winning Ohio thanks to Strickland's HUGE politicial machine he has in place and because Sherrod Brown ran on a campaign of progressive ideals and change!

Ohio will go blue!

[muryan]

53. Obama kept paid staffers in state after the primary

And I've been working since the primary too, McCain can't compete with the ground forces that are going to be put in place in Ohio. He has a natural advantage in demographics but thats where it ends.

[harun]

82. I think Ohio is the most unlikely of those picked for Obama

I would pick IN and TX for Obama before OH.

[suston96]

23. Polls today.....

http://www.electoral-vote.com /

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May26.html

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May26.html

[rg302200]

38. Those polls have Clinton Winning NC but not Obama

that smells fishy to me....besides why are we still polling for Clinton? The race is over its Obama vs. McCain! Time to get ready for November!

[SoCalDem]

27. MY map...notice what I left OUT!!!

[mckeown1128]

36. Nebraska splits it's electors.... SUSA had Obama picking up

I think it was 1 elector out of Nebraska.

[Zynx]

60. There was a more recent poll that had him losing it by enough that he gets skunked.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Graphs/nebraska.html

[mckeown1128]

66. I don't know... I think he has a shot...

susa has a good track record.

[Zynx]

74. And Nebraska is 2:1 Republican.

[bluebellbaby]

39. AND THESE PROJECTIONS COME FROM WHERE?

I went to the website and could not find anything that their "projections" were based on...say like polling information...???


OR IS THIS ALL WISHFUL THINKING???

[MichDem10]

40. You Are High!!

There is NO WAY Obama wins in Alaska, North Dakota, Indiana, or North Carolina. Nevada, Wisconsin, and Virginia are HUGE stretches at best.

That being said: If Obama can take New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio While maintaining states that Kerry won in 2004 - Barack Obama will be POTUS come January 20th 2009. :toast:

Final Score: Obama 283 McCain 255

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/]

[fujiyama]

45. I don't think Wisconsin is a stretch

but Nevada will be tough. Those are each of the candidates neighboring states.

Obama has to win all the Kerry states. There is no other option. And he has to pick up NM and VA, CO, or OH. I think FL will be a long shot.

[musicblind]

83. I think he has as good a chance in NC as VA if not better

I could really see my state going for him. I already see many Obama signs. I think, if he pushes and campaigns here, if he gets Mike Easley behind him to endorse strongly and campaign for him... I could see this state turning blue. And I am usually very pessimistic. The others you mentioned will be harder. I don't see him winning North Dakota, or even Indiana. Don't think he'll win Alaska either. But I DO think he has at least a shot in NC.

[OzarkDem]

41. Sorry, kids

this crap isn't going to sway anyone in the GE.

[hokies4ever]

64. Does Hillary hate Obama as much as you do?

:rofl:

[Carrieyazel]

42. Your prediction is fantasy. He's not winning IN, ND, NC. And OH, NV and VA are longshots

at best, despite the early polling, showing him in striking distance. He'll also have a tough time in NH.

I agree he won't lose the states you mentioned by big margins, but he will lose them by significant ones.

[apocalypsehow]

44. The OP's prediction is spot-on. n/t.

[barack the house]

47. He can't have a senator we need every set up there, gotta be napolitano, Richardson or sebelius.

[barack the house]

48. He can't have a senator we need every seat up there, gotta be napolitano, Richardson or sebelius.

[VotesForWomen]

49. mark my words; if O is the nom, it will be 62-38 minimum for mccain in SD.

[JianSay]

51. you're freaking dreaming!

[mkultra]

70. arent you TSed?

[NJSecularist]

52. Just one look at this map and all I can do is laugh.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Let me laugh some more.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[mkultra]

71. i feel the same way about your posts

back to free republic with you troll.

[Leopolds Ghost]

79. But you and your friend Tropics_Dude are Obama supporters!

[nadinbrzezinski]

54. That would be historic at so many levels BUT

we need to remain on our guard for all repuke dirty tricks

[Major Hogwash]

56. Lot of blue on that thar map.

Looks good to me.

[Zynx]

58. We're taking MO before we take IN. Also, GA and SC won't be competitive.

The increase in black turnout over current margins would have to be HUUUUUGE.

[D23MIURG23]

61. I'd love to see this happen, but I wouldn't count on it.

At least I haven't seen much evidence to suggest that it is likely.

[Alexander]

63. Obama could lose several big states and still win the election...

Even if he lost Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan in that scenario, he'd still beat McCain.

And Obama will win 2 out of 3 of those states, if not all 3.

[FlyingSquirrel]

65. AK, IN, ND, very iffy. NC & VA possible. The rest I agree with

And maybe FL & MO as well.

[yellowcanine]

68. If Barr makes a strong showing I predict a big landslide for Obama. Even Texas could .

turn blue.

[Khaotic]

73. Good observations

And why the GOP is sooooo afraid of Obama.

They haven't been able to figure out how to go up against Dean's 50 State Strategy.

When you look at the maps under a Clinton v. McSame situation, it's pretty much the same story that it's been for the last couple of elections.

Under an Obama v. McSame situation there are many states that will become battle grounds.

Hillary would take the traditionally dark blue states, but I don't think she would have a snowball's chance in hell of taking the states that teter either way.

She's pathetic.

Obama has pretty much let her get away w/ all kinds of shit. He didn't hammer her at all for her bold faced lie about Bosnia.

The GOP is waiting like wolves at a slaughter in hopes of Hillary somehow pulling it out and becoming the nominee.

Regardless of the fact that she's a woman, she's the same old same old. An attempt at the closest thing to reelecting Bill Clinton.

The air would be let out of the balloon and I think our party would simply stand w/ our jaws on the ground as the GOP dissembles Hillary. She would be a huge laughing stock.

By November Hillary would probably be LUCKY to win even the darkest blue states.

Believe me, Obama is the only one who is set up to not only win, but to reenvigorate the party and politics in general.

[AtomicKitten]

75. A blow-out in the GE will be Obama's Excellent Adventure.

:thumbsup:

[BobbyVan]

76. Barr and Nader will cancel each other out

[Aramis]

77. There will NEVER be another blowout election (by either side)

And as usual, 2008 will all boil down to wins Ohio.

[BigDDem]

78. That's hilarious sweetie, thanks for the laugh!!

:rofl:

[VotesForWomen]

80. heh. bookmarking. nt