Just who do people THINK the financial markets are betting will win the White House in November?

[Douglas Carpenter]

It's NO secret. It's ALL done on public trading and the info is constantly updated for ALL to see:

I won't tell you. But I will provide the links where you can easily look it up for yourself:

links:

go to this page and click on "2008 Presidential Election Winner" It's on the left hand column.

http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450#


or


just go to this page and click on "2008 US Election" then click on ""2008 Presidential Election Winner" It's on the left hand column.

http://www.intrade.com/



.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Note: These people are betting REAL money....

(God I hate how you can't link to specific pages at intrade.)

[Douglas Carpenter]

2. yeah, that's true.

I wanted to link to the specific page. But the sytem just does not work that way on eihter site. But it only takes a minute and one can see for themselves who the real money is being betted on.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. Well, HERE IT IS since it is a bit difficult to find the data and it cannot be directly linked to

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November

The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park.

---------------------------------------------

Some more tidbits

Intrade Prediction Market

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 95.0% to 96.7% chance that Sen. Clinton will win the Puerto Rico Democratic Primary on June 1, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 91.1% to 98% chance of winning the Montana Democratic Primary on June 3, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 93.1% to 98.0% chance of winning the South Dakota Primary on June 3, 2008


Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 89.6% to 93.8% chance to receive the most Democratic Super-delegates in 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 73.3% to 77.9% chance that Sen. Clinton will drop out of the race on or before 30 June 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 80.1% to 92.5% chance that Sen. Clinton will drop out of the race on or before 31 July 2008

[dbmk]

6. One thing one should remember about these games:

The numbers are not always completely representative. People might think that a certain price is a good bargain - but if there is another contest that will offer quicker payoff, they might go for that instead. Its a long way to November.

Intrade uses real money, but has lower volume. Rasmussen Markets use play money, but has higher volume.

[dbmk]

4. Rasmussen is play money

But the numbers there are almost identical to Intrades real money numbers.

Me, Phrig and Grantcart are tracking them for the daily Wigand Widget.

[bhikkhu]

5. "Somebody" wins by 20 pts, so says good money!

Thanks for the link!

on edit - looking at http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450#

[RNdaSilva]

7. InTrade Presidential Election Winner

?

Anyone care to bet on Hillary straight-up?

[Douglas Carpenter]

8. lol.

I was thinking to make that offer. But that might just come off a bit nasty.:mad:

[Douglas Carpenter]

11. iki

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. Interesting graph re: February.

Obama up.
McCain levels off.
Clinton down.

There's a reason people point to SuperT/Wisconsin as the watershed moment.

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. the Vice Presidential market trading on Rasmussen is interesting

from what I have seen - it's almost exactly the same on Intrade:


BAYH 3.1% to 3.2%

CLARK 5.1% TO 5.5%

RICHARDSON 6.9% to 7.9%

GORE 5.3% to 5.4%

WEB 20.2% to 20.8%

STRICKLAND 3.4% to 3.7%

CLINTON 16.7% to 17.2%

EDWARDS 6.7% to 6.8%

BIDEN 4.4% to 4.9%

NUN 5.1% to 5.7%

DASCHLE 1.6% to 2.4%

DODD 1.2% to 1.5%

KERRY 0.5% to 0.9%

WARNER 6.5% to 7.8%

[Douglas Carpenter]

10. one little kick

[NashVegas]

12. OpenSecrets.org and Fundrace.org Are More Accurate

Intrade is just betting on who's betting.

[Douglas Carpenter]

14. Intrade and Rasmussen Markets produce almost exactly the same figures

It is certainly not fool proof. It simply reflects market perceptions.

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. .