" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee"

[Douglas Carpenter]

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "


Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[MadBadger]

1. I'd love to know when they will actually stop polling

I dont think they will.

[Douglas Carpenter]

2. inauguration day, perhaps

as long as there are people asking for those figures they will probably keep polling

[Arkansas Granny]

3. It's strange that Rasmussen suddenly becomes a reliable source when it

gives a favorable report on your candidate, but it has been denounced as a RW polling site whenever the polling data seemed to favor Hillary. Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. exactly right! Rasmussen is a conservative organization and even they know that the race is over

and that Barak Obama will be the nominee. It only takes a cursory understanding of math to figure that out.

Or it's kind of like hearing Scott McClellan say that Bush mislead the country to justify invading Iraq. Everyone with any common sense already knew that.

[Arkansas Granny]

6. Alrighty then. Explain how Rasmussen shows Hillary doing better than Obama

in a head to head matchup with McCain.

As of 5/28:

Clinon 46% McCain 45%
Obama 43% McCain 47%

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[Douglas Carpenter]

7. Average national poll Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1=Obama +2.6///Clinton 46.7/McCain 44.7=Clinton + 1.4

First of all it's irrelevant now that the race is over and Barak Obama will be the nominee.

In that Sen. Obama has both John McCain and Hillary Clinton attacking him it is only common sense that this would have some negative effect on his ratings.

Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.7/McCain 44.1 = Obama + 2.6

Clinton 45.9/McCain 44.7 = Clinton + 1.2

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

links:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

Average Polls in Nomination Race:

Obama 50.8/Clinton 40.8 = Obama +10

The nomination polls are the averages of Rasmussen Tracking, Gallup Tracking, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, Quinnipiac and Washington Post/ABC.

link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

---------------------------

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

------------

And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450# )



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November


-------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[RNdaSilva]

11. p.s.

Doug, great post and on point.

[Douglas Carpenter]

17. thank you very much.

[lojasmo]

9. As he said "conservative organization"

What part of "Rasmussen is a conservative organization" don't you get?

[RNdaSilva]

8. Common sense is somewhat uncommon...

It is over...has been for months...Senator Obama IS the Democratic Party's nominee.

Next week the superdelegates will negate any possibility of Hillary taking the MI and FL issue to the convention. It will be inconsequential.

I agree that every vote must count...within the parameters of the rules set down by the DNC. Accept the consequences of the decision and make your vote count in the general election. Is that common sense? Methinks so!

[Barack_America]

4. Rasmussen Reports has at least a cursory understanding of math...

That's all it really takes to draw the conclusion that the "race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee".

[RNdaSilva]

10. Cursory understanding of math...

Sad that too many posters are lacking in this very fundamental skill.

Yes, IT IS OVER. Senator Obama is the Democratic Party's nominee.

Oh, I got an "A" in advanced statistics. Though it was many years ago I can still calculate a mean, mode and median...even a simple standard deviation.

Check out InTrade. This is for real money, would one care to bet on Hillary's chances?

[Kaleko]

16. Love those InTrade predictions.

And no, I would not bet a wilted cucumber on a Hillary win. Let alone real money.

[Douglas Carpenter]

18. Some more tidbits of Market Predictions:

Some more tidbits

Intrade Prediction Market

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 95.0% to 96.7% chance that Sen. Clinton will win the Puerto Rico Democratic Primary on June 1, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 91.1% to 98% chance of winning the Montana Democratic Primary on June 3, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 93.1% to 98.0% chance of winning the South Dakota Primary on June 3, 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives Sen. Obama a 89.6% to 93.8% chance to receive the most Democratic Super-delegates in 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 73.3% to 77.9% chance that Sen. Clinton will drop out of the race on or before 30 June 2008

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 80.1% to 92.5% chance that Sen. Clinton will drop out of the race on or before 31 July 2008

------------------------

The Vice Presidential market trading on Rasmussen Markets are interesting. From what I have seen - it's almost exactly the same on Intrade:

links:

http://markets.rasmussenreports.com

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

BAYH 3.1% to 3.2%

CLARK 5.1% TO 5.5%

RICHARDSON 6.9% to 7.9%

GORE 5.3% to 5.4%

WEB 20.2% to 20.8%

STRICKLAND 3.4% to 3.7%

CLINTON 16.7% to 17.2%

EDWARDS 6.7% to 6.8%

BIDEN 4.4% to 4.9%

NUN 5.1% to 5.7%

DASCHLE 1.6% to 2.4%

DODD 1.2% to 1.5%

KERRY 0.5% to 0.9%

link: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/

[Political Heretic]

12. Everyone in the reality-based community believes the race is over and Obama is the nominee.

[Jerseycountryman]

13. True

The lead is over 170 delegates. With 3 states remaining, this is unsurmountable.

[muryan]

14. Bears repeating?

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[Swamp Rat]

15. It appears SurveyUSA has also stopped polling regarding Hillary Clinton

http://www.surveyusa.com