As the economy gets worse, how badly will this hinder Obama in the GE?

[CK_John]

Logic would say people should blame the GOP but...will they? IMO, as things get worse, voter dislocation will lower voter turnout. Schools may not have oil for heating and may not open. Their may be not be any student loan money in the fall, reducing the youth voter turnout.

Also, people in stress tend to go with the known(even if it against their interest) and will stay with a known entity, rather than take a chance.

What you think?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. People blame incumbents when their lives suck.

The Republicans will get thrown out on their ugly pasty asses.

[Catch22Dem]

2. Doesn't hurt him

But his first term is going to be ROUGH!

[Selatius]

3. Historically, Democrats have and continue to be trusted on the economy over Repubs.

I haven't seen anything that would change that observation. McCain has virtually nothing to offer.

[cali]

4. um, polls show that the electorate trusts dems over repubs on the

economy. And sorry, schools certainly will open, even here up north by the Canadian border. Furthermore, I'd think that if your wacko scenario played out more people would vote.

Completely unrealistic OP. As always.

[Double T]

5. Freshman Senators ALWAYS solve complex economic and financial problems.........

while in their first term. I am VERY CONFIDENT voters will elect a candidate with the MOST EXPERIENCE in this area.

[PM7nj]

12. The voters will run to John "I don't know much about the economy" McCain.

:eyes:

[AtomicKitten]

6. He just ties it in with the black hole of $ that is Iraq, and the rest is gravy.

[ClassWarrior]

7. I have...

NGU.

[Danger Mouse]

8. it won't. mccain's solution to people's money woes? get a second job.

he's so badly out of touch that most voters will hate him by the time the ge rolls around.

[cliss]

9. I'm not sure but here's what I do know -

1. Every time gas prices go UP, people's hatred for George Bush goes UP by the same amount. Polls prove it.

2. For every notch of disgust people have for Bush, their willingness for CHANGE goes up correspondingly.

3. = Obama wins.

[quakerboy]

10. I think that

you should go to the following site:

http://www.270towin.com/

Then select the Electoral map of the 1928 election(the one before the great depression started with the stock market crash of 29)
After that, you should select the Electoral map of the 1932 Election

Then, you can answer your own question.

[anonymous171]

11. lol wut? Incumbents lose when the economy is bad. Look at Jimmy Carter's reelection bid.

[MikeNearMcChord]

14. And the first George Bush's in '92

Wasn't the last years of Eisenhower's and Truman's also bad economic years causing a switch in parties?

[Richard Steele]

13. I think you've got it exactly backwards.

People know perfectly well who is to blame for the
current economic Depression, and the Repubs have screwed
the pooch so badly that there ain't no amount of
Bible-thumping or gay-fearing that's gonna distract
people from it this November.

[Honeycombe8]

15. History says that people turn out a lot when economy bad, and they vote for change.

They blame the current leaders for their problems, history shows.

But the economy will be better (still not great) by November.

[AlCzervik]

16. From what i hear from my neighbors and friends people associate these very bad times

with Bush. Neighbors i never talk politics with, i mean never "This Bush economy sucks, i can't wait till that idiot is out of office"

[weezy2736]

17. Ummmmm.... negative 3?

[wanpete]

18. sorry, not this time, especially when Obama is finally able to fully take on McCain and get his

message out.

[livingmadness]

19. History would not support that argument my friend.

Economic recession, billions on war ... Republicans are completely fucked. You can see it everywhere. Things getting worse will only increase Obama's likelihood of winning IMO.

[Ravy]

20. You make some good points....

but overall, I believe that he will gain more than he loses. People blame the repbulicans. Even McCain blames the republicans.

[Fovea]

21. It does a Dem no harm at all.

And further kicks the WideStance Brand into the toilet.

[Occam Bandage]

22. It won't. Bad economies hurt incumbents, and people trust Dems over Reps on the economy.

[bhikkhu]

23. The war is the black hole in the budget

Obama is the only one in the running with a clear history and agenda to solve the first problem.

[Douglas Carpenter]

24. if there is one dependable rule in politics: incumbents lose when times are bad

and popularity and unpoplularity of Presidents and their parties come almost be graphed with ups and downs of economy.

Nobody follows elections closer than the finacial marekts and nobody takes economics more into their calculations than the financial markets. Let's just look at how the financial markets are predicting this coming election:

----------------------------

And here are the predictions from the financial markets:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?selConID=261450# )



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November