Obama NEEDS 15 of 16 Clinton supporters to win: based on DU, does he have them?

[Tyler Durden]

It is currently figured that a 6% loss in Clinton supporters votes will lose the election for the Party. Another way of saying this is, the Obama Campaign needs to "woo" 15 of 16 Clinton Supporters to vote for Obama.

Some polls say he WILL succeed, some polls say its a tossup, some polls say it will never happen.

IF YOU ARE AN HRC SUPPORTER, CAN YOU BE CONVINCED TO BECOME ONE OF THE 15 OF 16? I'm making this VERY simple, and if you're enthusiastic or a nose holder, say so in a post.

Hole the vitriol to a minimum, PLEASE.

[Tyler Durden]

1. First vote is a NO, without post.

I have not and will not vote until later.

[Marrah_G]

9. The proble is that some who hate her will vote to make her supporters look bad.

[Catchawave]

62. I didn't vote for that reason, also the Yes votes could be

just as questionable.

Best to run a simple yes/no comment thread.

Keeps everybody honest :D

[GarbagemanLB]

2. I won't vote for him because he cut in line.

:rofl:

[Tyler Durden]

16. Thank you for not taking this seriously.

I hope you VOTED seriously.

[Umbram]

49. "...based on DU..." and you were hoping for "serious" useful data...hrm...(nt)

[hokies4ever]

87. Serious votes only for serious polls

[IndyOp]

3. Link to the source that says "6% loss of Clinton supporter's votes will lose" GE...?

"It is currently figured" needs some support.

Thx.

[Ice-9]

12. Yeah, I like that passive voice.

That's how you get around identifying a source for what you're claiming.

[Tyler Durden]

17. This is a POLL, not LBN.

I am curious and busy.

[TornadoTN]

25. It's a good concept, but please give some source to back up those claims

I haven't seen anything close to those number or anything claiming as such.

I'm not denying we need them because we need ALL Democrats! But I would like to see how we arrive at those numbers and based on what facts.

[Tyler Durden]

36. I repeat: this is a POLL not LBN and I'm busy.,

Some of us are at work.

[anigbrowl]

65. No too busy to post though. In other words, you have no source.

[hokies4ever]

88. No link because it's completely unsupported

[Lerkfish]

4. if they're democrats, they'll vote the nominee. period.

next.

[bpeale]

30. and if they are true patriots, they will vote for Nader

[Kahuna]

37. I think the poor fella was just off his meds. nt

[Mz Pip]

53. That worked so well

for us before.

I really hope there was :sarcasm: in that post.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

76. nope...

that has been his position all along.

If you vote for Obama you my friend are not patriotic. You know that voting for Nader is what all the real patriots are doing. I wonder why he doesn't post over at the Nader web site where all 50 of Nader's voters are?

[Mz Pip]

98. All I can say to that

is PATHETIC!

If McCain becomes president because 5% of the country considers themselves true patriots and votes for Nader then I really really hope they all enjoy the clusterfuck that will come to this country. Think Bush is bad? McCain will be worse.

[scheming daemons]

5. Where do you get "it is figured"? That's based on OLD turnout numbers....

This ain't '04.

If the turnout among young people goes up substantially and/or the turnout among AAs goes up substantially, which has happened in the primaries with BOTH groups, then he can withstand a 10-12% defection of Clinton supporters.



The statistical models have changed for this year. Throw the old ones out. They are no longer operable.

[BzaDem]

75. That is exactly what was said when McGovern was running.

It's time to ground ourselves in reality.

[Marrah_G]

6. I did not vote because I do not need to be convinced

I am a Democrat first and foremost. I will vote for the Nominee because the alternative is to damn scary.

Any Hillary supporter refusing to vote for the nominee is letting her down, their community down and themselves down.

A McCain Presidency may well destroy our nation.

[Tyler Durden]

19. Then excuse my wording , and just vote YES

I'm only curious.

[Marrah_G]

27. Alrighty!

[Caution]

7. I'd give it a few weeks before asking this question

Senator Clinton's supporters are obviously disappointed. I hope they will understand that 4 years of McCain and at least one McCain SCOTUS appointee is a lot worse than 4 years of any Democrat.

[Amimnoch]

14. This one sure does!

I really do hope though, that you guys and gals are correct though, and he is electable!

[dionysus]

8. you 15 in 16 figure doesn't count crossover votes or new voters, so i think your premise is invalid.

[SKKY]

10. Is this based on the same number of Independents voting Republican...

...as the last election? If so, then the fundamental math is flawed because I absolutely without a doubt refuse to believe that McCain will carry the same percentage as did Bush last time.

[msongs]

11. obama's ok. some of his DU minions leave a lot to be desired. & please, no Hillary as VP nt

[shadowknows69]

13. This won't be an accurate gauge Tyler

You know as well as I do we have some operation chaos idiots bopping around here. I have faith true dems will vote for our party. Even if you can't pull that lever for Obama please get out and vote for every down ticket dem you can.

[patrice]

15. What a freepable poll! nt

[Barack_America]

18. That would only hold if 100% of people had voted in the past.

There is a large pool of first-time voters to draw from, as well.

[baldguy]

20. Only 1 in 20 Hilbots are asshole enough not to support Obama.

They can pound sand for all I care.

[theboss]

21. Is this assuming that John McCain gets every single George W voter?

That's a help of an assumption.

[MindMatter]

22. The premise is BS

A good 15-20% of her support was false flag voters who had no intention to vote Democratic in the November. When all is said and done, Obama will win some of those false flag voters.

Hillary is completely irrelevant to this whole process now. Obama has 5+ months to make an appeal to ALL Americans, including those who happened to vote for Hillary, regardless of their reasons. There are plenty of votes to be had, especially considering we're running against a corpse.

[On the Road]

23. Clearly No.

If however, we are thinking about November and not basing our poll on DU (as you requested), the answer is far from clear.

[gristy]

24. Do you just make this stuff up?

It is currently figured that a 6% loss in Clinton supporters votes will lose the election for the Party. Another way of saying this is, the Obama Campaign needs to "woo" 15 of 16 Clinton Supporters to vote for Obama.

[mkultra]

26. "it is currently figured"

That she lost.


Every candidate that has a strong opponent in the primary has a 30% loss threat that never comes true. You are a vocal rarity. take it on the road.

[Jersey Devil]

28. I call bullshit

on "It is currently figured that a 6% loss in Clinton supporters votes will lose the election".

[Marrah_G]

29. Tyler unless those voting no are also posting and admitting it, then the result is junk

There are many here in GDP that so despise Hillary and her supporters that they will intentionall screw up polls to try and make her supporters look badly.

Anonymous polls are a very bad way to judge this.

[helderheid]

31. LOL! I clicked just in time!

[OnionPatch]

32. DU is not representative of the public as a whole.

Sorry, but most Hillary supporters are not rabid message board members who have been involved in nasty online political arguing for the last four months. You're also forgetting independents, who usually do not vote in primaries at all. They are swinging left this year.

Not to say we shouldn't hold the vitriol. But it's getting a little tiresome to keep reading that Obama supporters need to "hold the vitriol", but Hillary supporters are allowed to say any insulting thing that comes to mind about our Democratic presumptive nominee.

[MessiahRp]

33. A 6% loss in the people the voted in the primary or 6% of those who voted in 2004?

This stat seems like bullshit to me. We registered more voters than ever this year and have more than made up the difference that Bush "beat" Kerry by. Even if we lose 6% of her supporters we should still see substantial overall gains partly because of all of the new Democrats that registered and will vote for Obama and partly from a serious lack of enthusiasm or support for McCain.

Not to mention and I know Hillary's supporters seem to think they are the focal point of the universe here but you could make an argument that after Super Tuesday at least 6% of her support was made up of the Rush Limbaugh "Operation Chaos" crowd. So they were lost to begin with.

Rp

[Lilith Velkor]

34. Not at the moment.

If I lived in a swing state, I'd be a nose holder, but I don't, so I'm voting for the woman I adore, who just clinched the Green party nomination.

[bunnies]

66. If youre voting green party... wtf are you doing here? nt

[QueenOfCalifornia]

77. Because

this is where some of the republican's no, green party people hold their meetings.

[Lilith Velkor]

96. Answering a question asked by one of my fave DUers

Since I am not suggesting others do the same, or even saying for sure what I will do come November (because I honestly don't know yet), it is not a violation of the rules.

Pissing off would-be keyboard bullies who don't bother to read them is merely a fringe benefit. :popcorn:

[NMDemDist2]

35. I'll vote for him but IMO it's the lesser of two evils

I don't think he's got the guts or the experience to take on the corporations, the Republicans or the media.

I fear he'll put out his hand across the aisle and come back with a bloody stump.

the best thing I can say about Obama is he'll go a long way to mend the world's opinion of the US but domestically, I fear he doesn't have the support or the stones to get the job done.

I think we'll be sending a swordsman to a gun battle.

Hope I'm wrong.......


and before you flame me, please note the subject line, I will vote for him and I'll campaign for him.

[LowerManhattanite]

38. As this was a joke of a question, I joke voted accordingly. :) n/t

[Starbucks Anarchist]

58. Careful.

He might bust an ALL-CAPS in your ass. :rofl:

[newmajority]

39. I see a rather large pizza delivery coming.

Sad that some remain so delusional :(

[BigBearJohn]

40. I'm in. I am a Hillary supporter. BUT, I have discovered Obama today for the 1st time.

He touched my soul today.
Never thought that would happen.
But it did.
Today I actually like the guy.
go figure.

[hayu_lol]

41. NO.

Cannot in good conscience vote for Obama.

[bunnies]

63. But you CAN in good conscience gamble with the supreme court?

You cant possibly be serious.

[StevieM]

42. He has me in the 2008 and definitely does not have me in the 2012 Democratic Primaries (eom)

[Tesha]

44. Even if he is then a strong incumbent, certain for re-election? (NT)

[Political Heretic]

43. Um, its currently figured..... from where?

[QueenOfCalifornia]

78. Shhhh!

Tyler is busy. He is working and does not have time to post information that backs up his OP. I would think it may be from Hillaryis44.

[liberaldem4ever]

45. I voted yes that they will decide to vote Dem in Nov.

I hope that people who are truly Democrats will vote for the Democrat. I can't imagine that any Democrat would want to vote for McCain who will keep an immoral war going that has killed so many innocent people and could even start a war with Iran that will kill many more. Why would anybody want McCain to win, for any reason? :shrug:

[Clintonista2]

46. Voted yes. As much as I detest the man, he's infinitely better than the alternative.

[slick8790]

47. I don't accept your premise.

Kerry only got 89% of Democrats in 2004, and lost by 3 percent. Obama has probably 80% already, 5 days after becoming the presumptive nominee, and he's much stronger with independents than was Kerry.

[featherman]

48. Is that 6% of Clinton DEMOCRATIC supporters or does it include the GOP, INDs, and

Reagan Democrats who will not and have not voted for a Democrat in years? Not snarky. Just asking.

[Zenmaster]

50. More than 6% of Hillary Supporters are not Democrats.

This "figure" is bullshit.

For one thing, more than 6% of people that are Hillary Clinton supporters were not registered, voting, democrats before this year.

For another thing, it simply isn't true, because popular vote means nothing. It would depend where these things happened. If 6% spread all over didn't vote would be different than if most of those 6% were condensed in a few states, which would also be different depending on if those states were thought of to be red or blue to begin with.

[bridgit]

51. No, his supporters here seem little interested in making his case either...

They're way too stuck on nee-ner nee-ner childishness.

[JVS]

52. If they decide not to act like a bunch of crybaby fucktards, he'll be fine.

Otherwise the US might have 4 more unpleasant years ahead of it. It's in their court.

[Beacool]

54. My line in the sand is very simple:

Since both of them got almost the same amount of votes and pledged delegates, she has earned the right to be on the ticket. I would have said the same exact thing if it had been the other way around, I would have expected Hillary to ask Obama to be her VP.

I have no idea whether she's even interested in the job, but it should at least be offered. If she's asked, I'll go back to campaigning, donating money and fund raising as I have done for years for various candidates. No offer, then I'll stay on the sidelines and no vote from me for the top of the ticket in November.

[moriah]

59. Is it worth it to risk McCain being president?

That's just something I can't risk. He has said he wants us to be in Iraq 100 years. He admits he doesn't agree with the majority of the American people. He wants to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Is it worth it, to make your point at the expense of another four years of Republican rule?

It isn't for me.

[Beacool]

69. NJ is a blue state.

Let someone else vote for him. At this point I couldn't even bear to wear one of his buttons. I saw and heard too much these past few months to just forgive and forget that easily, I'm particularly referring to the party leadership.

[Blue-Jay]

64. That's simple, all right.

[dionysus]

67. so basically you are saying you will never let it go that she lost, huh?

how bitter...

[Beacool]

72. Not bitter, just furious about a lot of shenanigans that went on behind the scenes.

The party leaders made their choice. Fine, then let them get their guy elected. They expect Hillary to work her heart out for him without even giving her enough respect to offer her the second spot. Well, that tells me a lot.

[dionysus]

81. the voters made the choice, not the party leaders. she wasn't robbed, she just came up short...

she's not entitled the VP for simply losing the contest...

[Beacool]

84. Well, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

:shrug:

[dionysus]

85. okay.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

80. If your line

was any more "simple" you would need a drooley towel.

[geek tragedy]

92. So, you're a Clintocrat, not a Democrat. n/t

[jakem]

55. Based on DU, Kucinich still has a shot!

:rofl:

[moriah]

56. If I'm holding my nose, it won't be for anything Obama's done.

I will vote for him because his policies are much more in line with what I think our country needs than McCain's. I will work hard to make sure he's elected, because we can't afford McCain at all.

I'm very grateful to those who have welcomed those of us who supported Hillary.

But there were a few people who really bothered me in the way they attacked her and attacked her supporters. I'm not saying there weren't stupid Hillary supporters too. There were.

The only reason I'd be holding my nose at the ballot box would be because of the actions of a very few of his supporters. And I'm hoping that by the time November comes I will have forgotten about them. Hopefully after Wednesday we won't see many of those people saying things that will make me want to hold my nose.

[dchill]

57. Minimum vitriol - this OP is full of it.

It's got it all - imaginary numbers, negative implications, flamebait. You name it. As constructive as quicksand. Congratulations.

[OzarkDem]

60. Obama needs to

get his surrogates and supporters on a leash. The Southpark generation isn't very good at attracting voters for him.

[Forkboy]

73. Your position says more about you than it does them.

You have a clear choice, and I assume you're smart enough to know it. If not, the blame lies at your feet, not at his supporters. I understand you want to do everything you can to deny people are responsible for their own vote, but it doesn't wash. You're an adult...act it.

[OzarkDem]

89. Sorry, the "blame Hillary" tactic isn't going to get traction

Good luck with reinventing presidential campaigning by attacking the people you want to vote for your candidate.

I'll vote for him because I'm a yellow dog Democrat. But most other people will need some persuasion, not attacks. You need to realize the reason former Clinton supporters are resisting him is because they were attacked viciously by Obama surrogates and supporters. You're just digging yourself deeper.

[Forkboy]

91. I never said anything about blaming Hillary.

I said whoever doesn't vote for Obama has THEMSELVES to blame. They can blame it on whatever or whomever they like, but their vote is their responsibility. Like I said, Republicans like to do things and then point out why it wasn't really their fault that they did what they did. The people arguing against Obama are doing the same thing. They're looking for someone else to blame for their own shitty decision.

I don't care that people were mean to them. I don't care if people are still being mean to them. They need to grow up...end of story. I'm not playing that game with self absorbed children.

[Major Hogwash]

95. Pretty much, that's horseshit.

"They were viciously attacked by Obama surrogates"

Dude, that's just a big fucking lie.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

79. Very nice!

How do you stand yourself?

[bunnies]

61. 53% will not vote for our Dem Nominee in November?

What the fuck is going on at Democratic Underground? :banghead:

[Pathwalker]

68. Ah shit - I voted wrong. I have every intention of voting for Obama

come November.

[onenote]

70. and 31.7 percent of all statistics are made up.

"It is currently figured that a 6% loss in Clinton supporters votes will lose the election for the Party"

Figured by whom? How did they calculate the McCain vote? DO they know who McCain's running mate is? Do they know who Obama's runnning mate is? Do they know how the debates will turn out? Do they know how well Bob Barr will do? Do they know what I'm having for lunch tomorrow?

I call BS.

[hedgehog]

71. Hillary only had 16 supporters? I thought it was 18 million....

[Iceburg]

74. Recent CNN polls say 39% defection of Clinton Supporters...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/09/clinton.supporters/index.html

A newly released CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that if Obama does not select Clinton as his running mate, 22 percent of her supporters would stay home this fall -- and another 17 percent would vote for McCain.

[hokies4ever]

90. And more people will vote for Obama's new message of change

as validated by him not picking Hillary.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

82. nope, and he doesn't need it. he's up 6% on McHundred already, w/only 80% of Dems

[jonnyblitz]

83. I didn't really supporter either one but I will easily vote for Obama.

I would have voted for Hillary. I couldn't get excited about either centrist but I always vote DEM in the end.

[hokies4ever]

86. This analysis is DUMB

Everybody knows that Obama has appeal to independents and disaffected Republicans. Also, this doesn't take into account his GOTV effort for November.

[PoliticalAmazon]

93. What is your source for this 15/16 votes needed by Obama?....

Who did the study, and when? Did they take into account Bob Barr's candidacy?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

94. 43h

[Avalux]

97. You've become very clever in your 'support' of Obama.

Please provide evidence of those poll numbers you so casually tossed out there.