My Electoral Map Analysis: Obama Can Win By Focusing on Iowa and Virginia

[Avalon6]

I am making the assumption that Obama will carry all the Kerry states except for New Hampshire (which favors McCain)
-Obama will carry Iowa, Virginia, and carry at least 1 EV in Nebraska due to their split electoral vote apportionment.
-New Mexico and Colorado will be very close.
-I think Florida is a goner due to the amount of seniors and veterans voting for McCain and since the state is controlled by Republicans
-I remain skeptical if the south will be in play but if it is indeed in play for Obama, we will be looking at an Obama landslide
-Obama VP pick should be someone from Virginia to ensure that he carries the state and since there are three potential candidates from that state (Webb, Warner, Kaine)
-Ohio will be very tough but can serve as a backup if Obama loses Michigan

This map represents the bare minimum Obama can win on because a tie goes to him since democrats control congress.

Any feedback?

[Zynx]

1. I'm pretty sure he'll win New Hampshire this year.

McCain's war stance just won't fly up there.

[MadBadger]

2. If Obama wins Virginia, he will win Colorado and New Mexico

Besides Iowa, Colorado is the next best state for Obama to turn blue.

[still_one]

3. I actually believe that New Mexico and Ohio will go for Obama

Perhaps you don't remember what the republican party has done to Ohio

There are also some interesting states that you have marked red which I think can turn based on the 2006 election

With the economy, energy and food prices the way they are, people are hurting, and they are well aware who has been in control for the past eight years

[Withywindle]

4. Native Virginian, live in Chicago now, still in touch with the folks at home...

Virginia is TOTALLY in play. If he picks Webb or Kaine as his running mate it's a done deal - VA just wants an excuse. And either one would shore him up with the hillbillies in the southwest (where I'm from). If you want to win VA you DO have to play to the military (who secretly hate Bush and the repubs but aren't allowed to say so) and convincingly reassure all the deer hunters you're not gonna take their guns away.

Really, that's it. Racism is a factor, but it's dwindling with every passing day. Every day, another old Klansman dies, think of that and feel better.

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Add Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire....

Whatever happened to the 50-state strategy? He should also focus on Florida and Missouri.

[Emit]

7. I may be crazy, but I think he can actually win NV

if we continue to increase our Dem voter registration, focus on the rurals and such, we can do this. In Reno, we have a pretty good grassroots effort going on -- I've been told it's far better than they have in LV.

[woolldog]

6. I like your analysis, but

I think focusing on iowa and virginia is a little too limiting, too high risk. You're also ignoring all the states he "must win" but is weak, for example, the Atlantic states

I think there are a couple of regions where Obama will have to spend a lot of time, if he gets a VA running-mate.

1. West CO/NV/NM/

2. Rust Belt MI/PA/IN/OH (must win at least 2/4)

3. Midwestern IA/MO and 1 or 2 CDs in NE

4. Atlantic MA/NJ/CT (all 3 must wins, but shaky)