Do the GE Polls Underestimate Obama's Support?

[Avalon6]

On MSNBC, George Will was saying that polls in certain regions of the country could be wrong because they are relying on turnout models from 2004. If turnout among younger voters and African-Americans is higher (which it inevitably will), Obama will gain much more support than the polls are saying. I think it is very telling that Obama is so close in states that are traditionally red even with polls estimating the same youth and African-American turnout in 2004.

[featherman]

1. This is likely true... the turnout demographics will change. How significantly

is anybody's guess but likely in Dem's favor

[DJ13]

2. I think he's right

Turnout models dont take the moderate Republican "fed up with the GOP" crossover voters into account.

[Skidmore]

3. I think the GE polls right now are unusable since there has been

very little campaigning to address a GE audience. It is just starting. I think the samples are based on old models and the conventional wisdom of red v. blue states. I think the nation is a lot more purple or blue than the media would like us to believe we are.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. Yes! I keep screaming at the top of my lungs about this!!

The media wants all of us to believe the following:

1. That Obama has all these problems with white male voters
2. That Obama has all these problems with white women voters
3. That Obama has problems with Hispanics
4. That Obama has problems with Jews
5. That Obama has problems with rural voters
6. That Obama has problems with swing states...

All of these so-called problems are not only fallacious; they discount the impact of voter turnout!!

TURNOUT = OBAMA WINS!!

If reliable conservatives like George Will, Peggy Noonan, and Andrew Sullivan can tell the truth-- that Obama has a great chance to win *WITHOUT* Hillary Clinton--then why do we have such a hard time coming to grips with this fact?

Here's the unvarnished truth: MCCAIN IS REALLY THE ONE WITH THE PROBLEMS

1. McSame has problems with young voters
2. McSame has problems with women voters! (yes, he does!!)
3. McSame has problems with black voters! (it'll never happen, trust me!)
4. McSame has problems with Hispanic voters! (we've already seen the Gallup poll)
5. McSame has problem with Independents (again, many polls show him tied or slightly ahead but that'll change once Obama is more well known)
6. McSame has problems with Republicans!
7. McSame has problems with Evangelicals! He could still win but lose 40% to Obama
8. McSame has problems with conservatives
9. McSame has problems with the neocons!
10. McSame has a Ron Paul problem!
11. McSame has a Bob Barr problem!
12. McSame has an ex-wife problem!
13. McSame has a pastor problem!
14. McSame has an economy problem!
15. McSame has an Iraq war problem!
16. McSame has a Bush problem!
17. McSame has a problem when it comes to his record on veterans!

Bottom line: all this talk about Obama and who he can or cannot win; whether he can win with or without Hillary Clinton is media hogwash!

The media wants YOU to believe that this race is closer than it really is.

What the media is failing to tell you is that McSame hasn't polled 50% YET!! In all of the polls conducted since he won the nomination, notice that McSame never gets above 48%. I haven't seen one poll yet that has McSame at 50% or more. Not one!!!

[Skidmore]

6. I agree, and I think Obama surrogates need to talk about this.

Point out that the "race" is no where close, certainly not a dead heat. Prevent the creation of more smoke and mirrors to support a media hungry for advertising dollars. This election of all elections should be a no brainer. And, I'm sorry, but any person claiming to be a Democrat and says otherwise has no quarter with me. I will call them for trying to throw the election to the Rs.

[applegrove]

5. Plus Obama is still an unknown commodity amongst some of the American electorate.

[Skidmore]

7. He will speak to them and we need to carry his message also

and let them know about him and what he wishes to accomplish. There is no excuse for not teaching.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. Another reason why media keeps pushing the lie that the race is close...

1. They need higher ratings. If the race is blowout, people will become complacent and ratings drop.
2. I also believe that the media wants a close race so that they can push the idea of Hillary Clinton as VP. Only Hillary can help Obama get over that hill and move to 50%+ :eyes::eyes:. They want Hillary because focus on the Clintons and their issues guarantees higher ratings. I may not like the Clintons very much but they make for fascinating discussions in the media and without the Clintons around, this race is going to be very boring. We'll have to leave it up to Obama to make it more exciting because McSame sure isn't...

[MarjorieG]

17. Also kept close to mask any theft later, manipulating to drive down further. Sorry for the downer.

[BzaDem]

8. NO!

The same stuff was said in the primaries, especially in PA. There were 300,000 new voters in PA. Yet the results were predicted by the polls.

The same stuff was said in 1972. Turnout among young people was going to increase due to an unpopular war. Look what happened. (49 state defeat for McGovern.)

Every single time a poll doesn't indicate a landslide for Obama, people start making excuses. Some range from the lunatic "NOT THIS TIME" cliches, while others are more intelligent (such as looking at turnout models). But regardless, 80-95% of the electorate is going to be people who vote regularly. Obama needs to focus on THIS group. If we register new voters, that's icing on the cake, but we can't rely on them turning out. Even if we register hundreds of thousands of new voters, only a portion are going to turn out, and even then many will not vote for Obama. (Obama only got a 55-45 margin on all the new voters his campaign registered in PA.)

We need to stop thinking that models that fail year after year are all of a sudden going to work this year, because "this year is different!!!111oneoneone."

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. There's no excuses, sweetheart. The fact is that they cannot predict

turnout for young voters, new voters and black voters. It was reported that there are 600,000 unregistered black voters in GA and that GA is now a state in play. There's no scenario where they can accurate predict the impact of these voters.

There's no reson to make excuses if you have the facts on your side.

[MarjorieG]

18. No matter what happens, each election affects the next. Obama is growing the brand.

To the newer places where people are living, moving to, in an inclusive, respectful way.

The media can screw this up just so much. Voting disenfranchsiement another. We shouldn't believe the media, blame Barack for their twisted, untrue message. Means we need to work harder.

The Obama team was already on the general while the three Clintons were stumping in SD for the irrelavant popular vote. Chuch Todd reminds that he won the same delegates in ID, as she netted in PA (regardless of the Rendell machine in Phillie). He brought it close enough.

I trust that team. Leadership, organization and temperament were always as important an indicator going forward.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Even Novak "gets it"!

McCain's Evangelical Problem

By Robert D. Novak
Monday, June 9, 2008; A17

Shortcomings by John McCain's campaign in the art of politics are alienating two organizations of Christian conservatives. James Dobson's Focus on the Family is estranged following the failure of Dobson and McCain to talk out their differences. Evangelicals who follow the Rev. John Hagee resent McCain's disavowal of him.

The evangelicals are not an isolated problem for the Arizona senator. Enthusiasm for McCain inside the Republican coalition is in short supply. During the four months since McCain clinched the nomination, he has not satisfied conservatives opposed to his positions on global warming, campaign finance reform, immigration, domestic oil drilling and how to ban same-sex marriages.

Among all constituency groups, evangelicals are most crucial to McCain. After supporting Jimmy Carter in 1976, Christian conservatives switched to Ronald Reagan in 1980 and since then have been indispensable to Republican presidential candidates. Dobson and Hagee, not merely inside-the-Beltway interest group chairmen or think tank managers, command substantial followings.

"I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," Dobson said in January 2007, adding, "I pray that we won't get stuck with him." After McCain clinched the nomination, however, Dobson privately invited him to Focus on the Family headquarters in Colorado Springs. When members of the Family Policy Council gathered there May 9 for an annual conference, word spread that McCain's campaign staff had rebuffed Dobson.

It was not that simple. The McCain campaign had responded that the senator would be in Denver on May 2 and would be happy to see Dobson in his hotel suite for a visit not limited by time. Dobson declined and asked McCain to come to Colorado Springs. McCain then also declined.

As the stalemate with Dobson continued, McCain had in his pocket an endorsement he had sought from popular televangelist Hagee. Founder and pastor of the Cornerstone megachurch in San Antonio, Hagee endorsed McCain at a joint news conference Feb. 27. William Donahue, president of the Catholic League, immediately asked whether McCain agreed with Hagee's description of Catholicism as a "Godless theology." McCain started backing away, asserting that his courtship of the pastor was "probably" a mistake.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/08/AR2008060801689_pf.html

More at the link...

[Youphemism]

11. It's more than the turnout models...

Obama will overperform in some areas because pollsters only track people with landlines, and Obama draws the young crowd -- the group most likely to rely completely on cell phones.

Obama will underperform in some areas -- the same ones he underperformed in during the Primaries -- because some people don't want to admit they won't vote for him because he's black. Luckily, *most* of those areas are not in states he's counting on.

McCain has been on the loose for months now, while Obama has been battling both the Clintons and him. The GE hasn't even gotten underway yet, and Obama has not yet gotten the bump he's expected to get this month.

The polls mean very little right now.

[SeaLyons]

12. Please be weary of MSNBC and all the Media...

Don't forget who owns them and what side they are on.

I'm sure this has been posted numerous times, but doesn't hurt to keep reminding ourselves.

http://la.indymedia.org/news/2003/04/47530.php

[MarjorieG]

19. Should be our mantra. No circular firing squad believing their worst.

Work harder for the best.

[Heather MC]

13. They don't want us to know the truth!

But we do know the truth
Obama I think is more like around 60% and McSame is at 40%
that's based on my assumsuption of just a 20% bump from Hillary supporters
no scientific facts, just guessing

[TheWraith]

15. Yes, they do.

It's not just the turnout models, either. For instance, way back in April or so, there had been 3.5 million new voter registrations. I'm willing to bet most of those were NOT Republicans.

[Howler]

16. Hey...I like the way you think Avalon6! N/T

[Bread and Circus]

20. It's been documented as the "Poblano" effect and their are numbers

depending on AA and younger age voter turnout that predict wins in certain states.

[Mike L]

21. I think they overestimate Obama's support.

Many people are embarrassed to admit they will vote for McCain, so they say "Obama" when polled.

[freestyle]

22. The turnout probably (hopefully) overcomes the Bradley effect.

I'm sure that Black turnout will be much higher, probably in excess of 70%. The youth vote should be up as well. But, polls also understate the racist factor. The term Bradely effect comes from former L.A. mayor Tom Bradley's run for Governor in California. He appeared well ahead in the polls, but in the privacy of the voting booth, people were free to exercise the prejudice they would not admit to pollsters.