McCain Is In Serious Trouble

[berni_mccoy]

From http://www.electoral-vote.com



GOP Strength is buckling, at it's lowest point yet with only 105 electoral votes strong.

Here are the breakdowns of EV's by strength:

Strong Dem (193)
Weak Dem (42)
Barely Dem (82)
Exactly tied (27)
Barely GOP (38)
Weak GOP (51)
Strong GOP (105)

While Dems have 44 more EVs in the Barely category, we have 87 more in the Strong category.

Fruthmore, the GOP has 9 more in the weaker category.

McCain is going to be spread extremely thin, trying to shore up form GOP strong holds while Obama strengthens his position.

Obama, in the infamous words: "How did you do that?"
Obama: "Do what?"
Trinity: "You move like they move."

[grantcart]

1. what is your parameters of "strong" "weak" and "barely"?

[berni_mccoy]

2. It's from the EV.com site

Strong means > 10%
weak is between 5 through 9
and barely is 1 through 4

[grantcart]

3. another category of > 15% would be even more revealing

of the gaping differences between the two campaigns at this point.

[berni_mccoy]

4. heh, the Landslide Category

[berni_mccoy]

6. Landslide Category -- Dems: 89, GOP: 33

For GOP
NE: 5
SD: 3
UT: 5
AL: 9
TN: 11

Total GOP Landslide: 33 EVs

For Dems:
WA: 11
IL: 21
DC: 3
NY: 31
MA: 12
VT: 3
ME: 4
RI: 4

Total Dem Landslide: 89 EVs

[grantcart]

7. You need to add some more

California 3/4 latest polls show 15% or more

http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Pres-GE-MvO.php

Hawaii only poll shows 30% advantage Obama

http://www.pollster.com/08-HI-Pres-GE-MvO.php

[berni_mccoy]

8. Ah, yes, I forgot Hawaii... CA though is only showing 11% favor on EV...

I'm just using their data to be consistent.

[grantcart]

10. Yes but look at the link 3 polls with almost the exact same numbers

and they have stopped polling - No way CA is anything less than a landslide. His best showing is 40%

http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Pres-GE-MvO.php

[berni_mccoy]

11. True enough. The EV.com web-master stated the other day that updates would be slow

and sporadic. He probably hasn't gotten around to updating it yet.

Have you seen http://www.fivethirtyeight.com yet?

[speedoo]

5. Another way to look at it: Obama starts out with 107 rock solid EV's.

In NY, California and Illinois. Not even the idiots running the McCain campaign would bother competing for those EV's.

McCain has nothing comparable. OK, Texas with 34 EV's might be comparable to say NY, but I doubt that Texas is as unshakable for Mccain as any of Obama's big three. Florida was strong for Mccain, but that's changed, obviously. And the Midwest is shaping up as much better for Obama than the South is for McCain, and there are a lot more EV's in the Midwest.

Which leaves McCain's "comfort zone" as almost nonexistent. Obama is really free to attack McCain on any turf he chooses to.

What's really exciting is the possibility that this is a longer term development than just 2008.

Rove's vision is turning out to be a nightmare.

[AndyTiedye]

9. So Many States Are Close Enough to Steal Though