Gallup Daily Poll,June 25: Obama (D) 45%(-1), McCain (R) 45%(+2)

[Hope And Change]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx

[villager]

1. rather large disparity in the polls lately -- or is Gallup providing the election theft narrative?

n/t

[nc4bo]

2. i think you're right. nt.

[Teaser]

11. It's probably just Gallups model + random noise

nothing to see here. Their model doesn't agree with anyone else's.

[TheWraith]

3. No sale.

Gallup's basing their polls on the assumption that proportions of Democrats and Republicans are remaining the same in the general electorate, therefore when they get more self-identified Dems than Republicans, they weight the Repub responses more heavily. However, the number of people identifying as Republicans has reached a 20 year low, while millions of new Democrats are being registered, throwing off all the old guages.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Gallup Doesn't Weight At All

They take a random sample...If the sample contains 35% Democrats 32% Republicants and 33% Independents that is what they go with.

I am very surprised between the discrepancy between them and everybody else...

Hmmmm...

[quiller4]

16. Gallup uses different universe to get different results

I'm not surprised. Of all the major pollsters, Gallup makes the fewest calls to cell numbers. If you don't include a significant number of participants with cell phones only, you give an age bias to the poll data.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Actually , Gallup Is One Of The Few To Do Cellphone Interviews

I'm not speaking to Gallup's accuracy or lack thereof because it is too subjective but they are a huge, huge polling organization and that gives them resources to do a good and accurate poll...

Again, it does look like an outlier...

[berni_mccoy]

4. In the past, Gallup would oversample Repubs/Dems to show the result they wanted

I believe they are doing that now. A recent poll shows only 29% of voters identify with the Republican Party.

Here is another poll that shows Obama with a 15-point lead in a 4-way race: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/378

[gristy]

6. Thanks for that info

Is Gallup providing any justification at this point for sampling close to 50/50 Dem/Repub registered voters?

[FrenchieCat]

8. I'm sure that they are not.

It wouldn't work to McCain's favor if they did....and that's not on the agenda.

[ErinBerin84]

5. that's curious

[seasat]

7. Not a bad thing that some polls show it closer now.

If the polls show a blowout early in the race, then the media will portray McCain as the "maverick underdog". The media will criticize Obama more since a closer race increases viewer interest and advertising dollars. Perhaps, most importantly, people will contribute less to the Obama campaign if the race is seen as a blowout. These might allow McCain to creep closer to Obama. While IMHO Obama is pulling away from McCain we need to point to polls like this to encourage donations and participation by Obama supporters.

On another note, FiveThirtyEight.com ranks Gallup in the bottom group of pollsters based on their polling performance during the primary. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA rank much higher and have show higher leads for Obama nationally or in critical states.

[woolldog]

9. So true.

We don't want to get cocky or complacent. And people do love an underdog. I don't want anyone feeling sorry for McCain.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. Lol

:rofl:

[CanonRay]

12. This sure doesn't square with the individual state polls

which show Obama pulling ahead. Bet this one makes the MSM news tonight, though.

[wowimthere]

14. Gallup has become a sham horse race poll. NO factual basis can be drawn from it.

Sure I like when my candidate is ahead but I'm stupid enough to believe that McCain is that close.

[AllentownJake]

15. They are all, all over the map.

and swinging wildly. I don't trust any of them right now.

[book_worm]

18. there is a big difference in tracking polls vs. nontracking polls

The tracking polls show a closer race while non-tracking polls show Obama leading by double digits (LA Times-Bloomberg & Newsweek).