The Daily Widget – Thursday, June 26 – Obama 332-206

[phrigndumass]

As I wrote yesterday, Obama is now leading McCain by more than six million votes. Yes yes, I know, popular votes don't count toward anything, even in a general election. I get it, Miss Downer. But they are a very good indicator of the national public interest.

And as DU'er tiptoe would show us with his Monte Carlo models (which I highly recommend reading), three million votes were considered stolen from us in the 2004 election. Could six million votes be stolen? Is that kind of margin theft-proof? I personally believe it is theft-proof, but I'll leave that to your opinion.

Three polls were released yesterday:
Nebraska - Obama 36, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 6/23, +/- 4.5)
California - Obama 58, McCain 30 (Rasmussen, 6/23, +/- 4.5)
Missouri - Obama 43, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 6/23, +/- 4.3)

Missouri switched back to red, but it is still trading blue at 52.50 on Intrade. Vote-rich California shows Obama leading by 28 points now. And Indiana is now trading in the 30's for Obama, moving up 4.60 since yesterday to 34.50.


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DAILY TRACKING

















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Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good morning, phrigndumass!

If Obama's popular vote lead keeps increasing then the trading will keep going up too, right? Oy, I'm trying here. Between this monkey on the tv and these kids...

[phrigndumass]

2. Summertime, no school, and now they WANT to get out of bed in the morning!

LOL :D

Trading is just like the stock market. It's similar to a bet with money. If the popular vote lead widens for Obama, people will see that as a good sign he will win, and they will buy "Obama shares" when the price is right, and sell them at a higher price later to make a profit.

They buy Obama shares for the nationwide race, and for each individual state separately. We show the twelve states we consider "swing states" in our widgets above, and how they are trading for Obama. The prices are always $0.00 to $100.00, never going above that.

Intrade uses real money for trading. Rasmussen Markets uses Monopoly money for trading, as far as I know (no money changes hands).

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

4. Ok, but how is like OTB

and horses :D Just kidding. My dad always had me in an OTB when I was a kid.

Thanks for the explanation. He was always watching the stock market too, so I kind of understand that. I even had stocks at one time.


Don't let them rain on your popular vote parade. :)

[phrigndumass]

6. hehe ... 2 to 1 odds :)

Obama is trading at roughly 64.0, while McCain is trading roughly at 32.0. That's two-to-one odds! How's that for horse racing? :D

[grantcart]

13. You can see people taking out profit and that is why some Obama states with

high numbers showed a slight decline. Indiana's big jump is a good sign and I still can't figure out what the money sees in SC.

[phrigndumass]

21. That's a very good point ... profit-taking

Intrade's charts for each state's trading (our 12 states) look like a zig-zag.

Here's Ohio's chart, which has been up and down within the same range for at least three months:



It goes up, they sell. It goes down, they buy.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Mornin' phrigndumass!

Thanks for the math! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Good morning jd!

:donut: Thanks! :hi:

[myrna minx]

7. A good morning kick.

I've brought the chocolate dipped strawberries. Where are the mimosas? :hi:

[phrigndumass]

8. It's a good morning for an Irish coffee, lol

Heavy on the Irish :7 ... Very humid out.

:donut: Good morning, Grace Adler! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. Off to work kick :)

Enjoy your day ...

[Demeter]

10. While Any Other State Going Blue Would Be a Real Sea Change, A Breakthrough

In the nature of a miracle (as in the blind suddenly seeing), I'm not holding my breath.

People would rather die than admit they've made a mistake the size of George Bush Junior.

Unfortunately, that's exactly what's happening, and will continue to happen.

Thanks for my daily Numbers shot, Pmass! Outstanding, as always.

[phrigndumass]

11. It's blue enough for me :)

Thanks Demeter! :hi:

[Demeter]

12. Ah, But Taking One of the Currently Red States and Flipping It Blue...

That would be a breakthrough blowout. A real Xmas present. There's still time--and we've the the Resident-in-chief working on it day and night, with all his multi-talented staff...

Demeter is dreaming of a Blue Xmas!

[phrigndumass]

15. Let's do it in the south then, more electoral votes there ...

Gawgia and Luuuziana would be great! Paula Deen meets jambalaya.

Obama deserves a Blue Xmas! :D

[grantcart]

14. ok what state are you talking about

I have read this 8 times and have no idea which state you are talking about.

[Demeter]

18. Any of those showing red right now--changing one to blue would be awesome

[grantcart]

19. My guess is the next one is Nevada

it was close and McCain going big on nuclear will screw it up.

[Demeter]

20. Good Point! Good Candidate, Too

We'll see if you are right very soon, I suspect.

[grantcart]

16. I just went through all of the state to state polls and found that in virtually

every case Rasmussen Obama's numbers are 5% less than whatever other polls are being taken.

Is there any kind of documentation that confirms that?

[phrigndumass]

17. Yes, and McCain's numbers are slightly lower as well ...

It's the undecideds. Rasmussen gets people to take a poll, and then lets them weasel their way out of answering which candidate they are leaning towards, which is the whole point of calling them in the first place, lol. Rasmussen's undecideds average 12 to 13%, while other polling outfits average about 6 to 8% undecideds. Rasmussen also conducts about half of all the state polls released. Therefore, Rasmussen waters down the polling field with a bunch of less accurate polls.

Check this out:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/91

Here's an example for New Mexico:

Survey USA conducted a poll on June 19 and found Obama leading there 49 to 46 (Obama +3, moe +/- 4.3%) with 5% undecideds.

Rasmussen conducted a poll on the exact same day in New Mexico and found Obama leading there 47 to 39 (Obama +8, moe +/- 4.5%) with 14% undecideds.

Which one would you trust more? I'd put my money on the one where Obama leads by 3 instead of 8, simply because of the difference in undecideds. SUSA gets an answer, while Rasmussen wimps out.

[grantcart]

22. Driving home NPR ran a story saying that Texas had moved to 5 points

Looks like Texas will be moving red to pink soon.

[phrigndumass]

25. Nah, it was a lolpoll ... 17% undecided ... but

It did show Nader with 1% and Barr with 1%. That was the only useful part of the survey. Believe it or not, Rasmussen's June 9 poll in Texas is more useful (Obama 39, McCain 52).

:7

[Coexist]

23. .

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. K&R thank you!

[phrigndumass]

26. Thanks Mrs. Dumbass!

:hi: :loveya: