Gnister
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:27 PM
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Newsweek Poll Large sampling ERRORS |
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Edited on Tue Jul-15-08 04:02 PM by Gnister
No wonder why Obama only lead McCain by 3 % in the last Newsweek Poll. Look at the structure of the sample of the Poll:
Age Structure: AGE 18-39........16,95% 40-59........38,52% 60%..........44,53%
Hmmm, wonder which candidate a sample like that would favor......
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thereismore
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:28 PM
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1. shoddy work, stupidity, or ? nt |
leftynyc
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:40 PM
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2. The only thing that makes any kind |
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of sense here (and not really) is that this is the percentage breakdown of likely voters based on history. But in a year such as this, history is no guide.
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Gnister
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:45 PM
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5. Here's the Age demographic of the votes the election 2004 |
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National voters Demographic in the presidental election 2004 according to CNN: 18-29.....17% 30-44.....29% 45-59.....30% 60+.......24% http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html?click
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Freddie Stubbs
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:43 PM
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3. What would the correct sample be? |
Gnister
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:46 PM
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6. 2004 Demographic of national voters |
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National voters Demographic in the presidental election 2004 according to CNN: 18-29.....17% 30-44.....29% 45-59.....30% 60+.......24% http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html?click
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book_worm
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:44 PM
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4. So they are saying that only 16% of respondents were between the age of 18-39? |
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they would be a much higher percentage of total turnout than that.
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Gnister
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Wed Jul-16-08 11:52 AM
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TexasObserver
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:49 PM
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7. Newsweek's recent poll means one thing: Don't trust Newsweek's polling. |
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Edited on Tue Jul-15-08 03:49 PM by TexasObserver
45% over age 60!!
39% 40-59 years old!!
17% under age 40!!
That looks a sample for selling adult diapers or denture cream, not a weighed poll of voters.
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ravishane
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:50 PM
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8. let them have their lame polls |
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The voter turnout amongst 18-39 people will be unprecedented this November.
That Obama is still ahead, given this sample, is pretty telling.
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Gnister
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Tue Jul-15-08 03:52 PM
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9. But it's important that the young people turn out to vote!!! |
ravishane
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Tue Jul-15-08 04:06 PM
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I am on a college campus, and trust me, the turnout will be ridiculous. I am Purdue University which is a conservative campus with all sorts of right-wing maniacs around. Things are vastly different here now than they were in 2000. People were turning out for Bush in somewhat comparable amounts to Kerry. November will NOT be the same.
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Gnister
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Tue Jul-15-08 04:03 PM
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10. Which shows the importance of young people |
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And to get the attention of the 60+ to understand that McCain only will send their children and grand children out to wars....
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uponit7771
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Wed Jul-16-08 11:57 AM
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13. AHH come ON NewsWeak!! This one's obvious!!! |
uponit7771
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Wed Jul-16-08 12:11 PM
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14. You know, the good thing about the 40 - 50 oversample is McSame is STILL losing |
chapel hill dem
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Wed Jul-16-08 12:23 PM
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15. Ignorant question here. I thought pollsters normalized the raw results |
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to reflect the actual demographics.
Or have I completely missed a big point?
TIA
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Wed May 08th 2024, 07:24 PM
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