The two major parties' veep shortlists.

[saltpoint]

--Blue shortlist:

Biden
Sebelius
Richardson
Schweitzer
Kaine


--Red shortlist:

Romney
Huckabee
Portman
Thune
Barbour

These are guesses, arbitrary guesses at that, but this morning it feels as if these are the people the two major candidates will choose from to complete their tickets.

These are arbitrary choices winnowed from longer lists more for practical electability rather than personal preference. I'd personally want Barbara Boxer or Brian Schweitzer, for example, but it could be Reed or Ritter or Casey for all I know.

I believe all five of these blue veeps are Catholic. Four are from states Bush carried in 04. Three are from Great Plains or Western regions. Two are adepts in energy policy. Two are very rich in foreign policy experience. All are strong team players. One has the best dog in American political history.

Two of the red veeps are Southerners in a year when McCain will have to decide how hard to fight for the post-Nixon South. Romney and Barbour soothe the corporate component of the GOP base. Thune is the lone west-of-the-Mississippi guy. I left off Pawlenty and Fiorina because Pawlenty looks wobbly and pointless and Fiorina won't sit right with the staid base GOP voter.

We're a little more than a month away from the Democratic Convention in Denver (August 25-28) and the Republican Convention in Minneapolis (September 1-4). Right now Colorado leans slightly Democratic with Udall favored in that U.S. Senate race, while Minnesota is strongly Democratic with Coleman vulnerable but still slightly leading Al Franken.

Just thinking outloud.

[stray cat]

1. What about the Indiana gov for dems and Crist for Repubs

Not crazy about either but there is alot of speculation about them. I kind of like Schweitzer or Biden - not sure about Kaine.

[saltpoint]

2. Indiana has a red governor -- Mitch Daniels -- and he is among the

most loathsome maggots who ever gnawed the carcus of democracy.

He's facing a convincing Democratic candidate this November in Jill Long Thompson, although her task is not an easy one.

Senator Bayh has won several state-wide ballots in Indiana and could easily be on a shortlist of veeps. I left him off because I felt Obama would be less enthusiastic about Bayh's early and very visible support of Bush's Iraq policy.

Good point on Crist. He might make the cut. I sure don't like him much, but agree with you that he could easily be on McCain's list.

[amandabeech]

10. Mitch the Maggot. I like it.

One of my friends has a very good friend in Indiana politics. My friend has done lots of volunteer technical work out there, and according to my friend and his friend, "Mitch the Maggot" is incredibly apt.

In fact, I'm going to e-mail my friend with this one. He should get a real charge.

[saltpoint]

12. LOL! I like your friend. It would be a fine, fine thing to elect Jill Long

Thompson to that job and wave bye-bye to Daniels.

It would be a great day in America.

[amandabeech]

18. My friends would celebrate.

And so would I!

[stray cat]

15. Screwed up on Senator Bayh - thanks for the correction

[saltpoint]

22. I think I'm the one who screwed up on Senator Bayh -- by leaving him

off the list in the first place. jefferson_dem in this thread has provided the key update -- that Bayh confirms he's on the list being vetted.

[DainBramaged]

3. Why not include Hillary?

Since your list is an arbitrary guess?

[saltpoint]

4. Because I don't think she will be on the short list.

[DainBramaged]

7. I do, out of respect, but what do I know, I'm Bramaged

[saltpoint]

9. Out of respect I should have included Mario Cuomo, surely the

bedrock of dignity and brains for living Democrats, but he is a bit long of tooth these days, and unlikely to be the choice.

Although to think outside the box, I don't think age is a disqualifying factor when the mind in question is as expansive and sharp as Cuomo's. In the outside-the-box thinking, why not have the benefit of Cuomo's counsel for say, 4 years, and then for the 2012 re-election campaign, choose another vice presidential candidate?

I count Cuomo as a titan. One of the best Democats of my lifetime. We missed a great, great opportunity when he withdrew from the race in 1992 on the eve of the deadline to enter the New Hampshire primary.

[DainBramaged]

25. All we are doing is making mashed potatoes out of carrots

It's fun to speculate, but in the end, 50% will be happy with the choice, and the other 50% will be as pissed (as when Hillary quit) and take their bat and balls and go home.

[saltpoint]

32. I wish my uncle had lived to see this election. He died in 2003 but had

spent the greater part of his adult life unionizing in the Central Valley of California.

More than anything, he would loved to have seen the end of Republican domination of the White House. He was no fan of the first Bush, and even less of this one.

[DainBramaged]

55. My condolences, and utmost respect for your Dad

A Union organizer, a man after my own heart!

Right after my surgery last year, I promised myself I would make it to see 1-20-09, the end of an error, and Barack Obama sworn in as our first African American President, and filibuster-proof majorities in the House and Senate and Liberal judges appointed to the Supreme court, and ALL of Fucking Booshe's executive orders and signing statements made null and void.

Booshe will be lucky to escape getting shit thrown at him as he did in 2000 when he is snuck down to the grandstand to watch Obama sworn in.


I actually think the piece of shit should not be invited.

I actually think (now that I've thought about it) Colin Powell should be his VP.


THAT would twist the Rethugs panties in a knot!

[saltpoint]

56. Powell? Well, it would set quite a few folks on their heels and raise

a lot of eyebrows.

I'm thinking Obama will go to a Democratic convention and asked it to confirm a Democratic veep pick, but I've been wrong before.

Of the possible Republicans I think Chafee stands the best chance, although Powell is a higher-profile guy.

You mention the Inaugural. I can't wait for next January. I'm willing to work hard to win and will support the ticket, but if we can win big in November, that Inaugural in January will be a sweet, sweet day, and a long time getting here, too.

I just can't wait.

[jefferson_dem]

5. I like your lists, OldCrusoe but I would definitely add Bayh to the blue shortlist.

He was surrogating for Obama on FauxNews this morning and did an ace job against the right-wing hack Wallace and countering LIEberman's nonsense. When asked about VP, he basically said "yes, i'm on the short list."

EDIT: Reading your comment above, Bayh towed Barack's Iaq line this morning. He said repeatedly that Barack demonstrated key judgment in 2002-3 in that he opposed this war from the start. That was the right position. Of course, he wasn't asked to defend his beating of the war drum which would have to happen if/when he is chosen for the ticket.

[saltpoint]

6. Well, damn. Alright, then, I guess I'll have to make a revision.

I can see where Evan would be a true team player if he wee asked onto the ticket, and he might even put Indiana in play.

It might also generate a higher level of support for Jill Long Thompson, who is challenging Mitch Daniels in the gubernatorial race.

This could get interesting. Thank you for the info & heads-up.

[Gman]

8. Any good list includes Hillary at the top of the list

anything else is emotional and what you want it to be. And that's OK, albeit not accurate.

[saltpoint]

11. No arbitrary list is accurate, unless by accident it becomes so, which

neither you nor I know will happen right now.

I do not believe Senator Clinton will be on the short list.

[stray cat]

16. Its an educated guess list - just like yours which includes Hillary

I think Bill is a complication and will mess up Hillary's changes - and that has nothing to do with emotion.

[saltpoint]

17. Agree. I think a former president ambling about would be a distraction to

any new president.

[amandabeech]

13. What about Jack Reed of RI?

He's been getting some play since he's touring with Obama right now.

One of the cable networks did a profile on him this week, and he sounds incredibly impressive. His rep in the Senate is great, especially since he hasn't been around there for too long.

[saltpoint]

14. Reed is impressive and he's tough, too.

Reed strikes me as someone who doesn't take a lot of guff from the Republicans.

Could be just the ingredient Obama wants.

[amandabeech]

20. Maybe that's why he's on the tour. n/t

[salonghorn70]

19. Your Guess Is As Good As Any

For the last few weeks I have thought that it would be Biden. Now I am thinking that it will be someone from a red state who will turn that red state and be helpful in other red states. I eliminate Sebelius. I just don't think Obama will choose her. Kaine, Schweitzer, and Bayh (who is not on your list) are on the list from which I think the VP may be chosen.

[saltpoint]

21. Yes. My omission of Bayh looks like a misfire, since he's evidently confirmed

that he's on the shortlist.

Kaine lacks the white-knuckled tumble-savvy fighting spirit of Biden, but on the other hand, he's a hell of a decent soul and the idea of service is likely to be very big in an Obama administration. Kaine fills that bill very well.

[salonghorn70]

23. Biden, Bayh and Kaine

Old Cruso, I agree with you on the difference in personalities between Kaine and Biden. I think the deciding factor is whether they want someone like Biden who can get the base fired up, lend foreign policy support, have a beer in the Union hall or do they want someone who might actually be able to carry a red state. Biden probably will not be significant in carrying any specific state. Kaine can carry Virginia and Bayh can carry Indiana. The fun of all of this is that none of us really knows what Obama's team really wants from a VP and I would not be totally surprised if the VP is someone we haven't even been talking about.

[saltpoint]

26. Agree on all points. If the registration for Democrats continues to rise,

then Obama can inspire and mobilize Virginia and Indiana with the help of Kaine or Bayh.

Kaine, to take his example specifically, represents a HUGE ethical leap forward over the current vice president, doesn't he!? My god.

[salonghorn70]

27. Kaine's Faith

I certainly agree with what you said about the ethical contrast. I think that Kaine has a very strong story that can be told in the campaign. Apparently his Catholic faith is not casual but is very strong. I believe that he served as a missionary in South America.

[saltpoint]

28. Yes. The emphasis on service to others is likely going to be

definitional for an Obama White House, which is a powerfully refreshing change of pace from what we've seen under Bush and Cheney.

Kaine cements that commitment and would be a vice president as influential as Cheney, only for the good guys and not the bad guys.

[Midwestern Democrat]

52. I'm not certain about Bayh being able to carry Indiana. At first glance,

it looks like a solid Red State - Bush beat Kerry in that state in 2004 60% to 39%. I'd need to see quite a bit of evidence before I'd be comfortable buying into "Bayh can swing Indiana". The evidence from this year's primary isn't very convincing either - Bayh wasn't even able to deliver the kind of decisive victory Hillary Clinton needed at that point in the Indiana Democratic primary.

If he can't swing Indiana, then Bayh as a VP, IMO, is a non-starter - if the GOP governor is re-elected, we'll lose his Senate seat immediately to a Republican.

[saltpoint]

24. McCain's list could just as easily come down to

Lieberman
Fred Thompson
Tom Ridge
Tim Pawlenty and
Jim Talent.

There's talk that he "can't get away with picking Lieberman and Ridge," owing to their pro-choice records, although if the electoral college map looks as if he is facing a landslide defeat, McCain could dig down and shake it up a bit and choose either of them. The fundies don't like McCain to start with, and Lieberman and Ridge would be problematic, but perhaps viable in circumstances where the fundie base has no other reasonable choice AND the odds look long.

Thompson has been a long-time McCain ally and was very present for him in 2000 against Bush.

I threw in Jim Talent's name despite the 06 loss to McCaskill because Missouri matters and Talent likely retains significant support there among the people who place calls, stuff envelopes, and knock on doors. Plus, ol' Jim's lookin' for a gig.

[salonghorn70]

29. I Think it Will be Romney

I think Romney has the ability to help in Michigan, help in some of the western states that have significant numbers of Mormans and help in fundraising. I agree that Ridge would be a logical choice if it weren't for the Republican crazies. If it is really looking bad for McCain by the convention, then I'm not sure what he does.

[saltpoint]

31. Romney would help make Michigan a tougher fight for us.

I think Obama will prevail in Michigan, but there's no question that turn-out for the GOP might rise if Romney is McCain's veep pick.

I wonder how Romney would do in places like Georgia, where there's a strong protestant/fundamentalist GOP base. It would be great to somehow have it so that Romney, even if he helps in Michigan and Utah, say, he simultaneously drives down GOP voter turn-out in those fundie districts in Georgia -- enough so that a energized and mobilized Obama effort in the cities could carry the state. Barr has to pull maybe 4-5% in this scenario, but it could happen.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

33. Yeah, desperation just might prompt McCain to throw a "Hail Mary".

Normally a Republican could never contemplate having a Jewish Pro-Choice Democrat on their ticket, or a woman.

But you're right, the polling, particularly state to state, spells a big loss for McCain, and he might just have to take a crazy chance that a move like that will win him more crossover than lose hardcore right wingers since the conventional path will spell certain defeat, as things look right now.

Usually, teams that are down big and have to pass on every down, or jack up a wild three pointer on every trip down the floor, or swing for the fences on every pitch, go down even harder.

[saltpoint]

35. And I am hopeful McCain will be in that set of circumstances as he

steps off the plane in Minneapolis.

I hope his internal polling shows him getting whomped in every single swing state.

The short-term advantage is that he'd select a veep nom who repels significant portions of the GOP base, depressing their vote totals in down-ballot elections and giving us control of sveral statehouses, city councils, and so forth. That alone would be worth it.

In the long-term, the fundies would be incensed if he chose a pro-choice candidate, and they'd vow in 2012 to become even more absurd, more strident, and more repellent in their pressure to choose the GOP nominee. And louder they screech the less viable they become as social models. And their political clout diminishes, like a 2-year old who begins to race wildly through the house 20 minutes before running out of energy and falling dead asleep.

[Baclava]

53. McCain looks about 100 years old next to Mitt

I doubt his cranky ego would allow it...it's all about appearances now.
VP's just parrot the party line of the prez candidates anyway.

[saltpoint]

54. Mitt does seem to have more vigor than McCain. Of course a doorknob has

more vigor than McCain, and more integrity as well.

In one way of looking at this, Romney wants the job altogether too badly. He's desperate for it. He is slobberingly eager to be McCain's little veep puppy.

Too eager to suit me.

If McCain HAD any integrity, which he certainly does not, he'd choose John Danforth. Also kind of an old guy but possessed of a certain fairness and unusually cogent and fair for a Republican. Danforth, while he is certainly not my favorite politician, is loads better than anyone likely to wind up on McCain's short list.

But Danforth, who is a minister, has blasted the far-right fundies in their entire interpretation and implementation of the New Testament, and so I don't expect to see him in Minneapolis this summer.

[saltpoint]

30. Or, if he wants, Senator Obama could choose from among

Claire McCaskill
Chris Dodd
Patty Murray
Bob Graham and
Janet Napolitano.

Or

Barbara Boxer
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Hillary Clinton
Sherrod Brown and
Wes Clark

Or

Robert Wexler
John Edwards
Henry Waxman
Bob Casey and
Lincoln Chafee

[phillysuse]

39. You forgot Lincoln

Blanche Lincoln.

[saltpoint]

43. I like her. I didn't forget her. I left her off because I'm just personally

not counting her as a finalist for a short list for Obama's veep.

If he competes for Arkansas I think he goes with Wes Clark or Hillary Clinton before Blanche Lincoln.

Again -- this is guesswork, but that's my hunch.

There was early on some talk that Blanche Lincoln would make a run for the presidency and enter the caucuses and primaries. I was contacted by people who supported her and signed a petition in support of her making the run.

I think Hillary Rodham Clinton obviated that plan, although doubtless there were other variables too.

[ruggerson]

34. You forgot Pawlenty on the Repub side

[saltpoint]

36. In my defense, he's terribly easy to forget.

Hi, ruggerson.

I mention him as seeming weak and wobbly and leaving him out for that reason.

But he is hosting their damn convention, so he probably is still in the running at one level or another.

[grantcart]

37. I keep seeing Schweitzer on DU shortlists but nowhere else I think that is because

besides the fact that he is from a region that Obama is already outperforming expectations, he is running for reelection.

Sebilius is widely seen as problematic as it would reignite questions about why Hillary was passed by.

Richardson is not an effective national campaigner and there are lingering skirt rumors.


It seems to boil down to Kaine and Biden.

Kaine's advantages is that he comes from two swing states: He was born and raised in Missori and lived as an adult in Virginia. He is a devout Catholic and spent some time as a lay missionary where he became fluent in Spanish.


Biden is a great asset to the party but has a history of letting his mouth get away from him.


IMHO its going to be Kaine. The only drawback is his relatively short term in public service but quite frankly anybody that is going to be really bothered by that isn't going to vote for Obama anyway.

Appointment of a Catholic to the ticket, expecially one with Kaine's credentials will have a dramatic impact on the old ethnic neighborhoods in Ohio, PA, IN that have been somewhat less than enthusiastic for Obama. He should help to excite the Spanish speaking base and electorate as well.

Kaine also keeps the basic message of change intact as well.

The chart by phrgndumass shows what is needed, we need a candidate that can move states from "leaning Obama" to "weak Obama" (Idon't really agree with that term). A Vice Presidential candidate that can add 4-5 points in those states will help cement victory. There are really only two candidates who could do it Clinton and Kaine. The reality is that Clinton's nomination is very complicated. Kaine's is not. Kaine is the first non Illinois politician to endorse Obama. I think that the trust between Obama/Kaine is the kind needed for a successful Pres/VPres relationship.

[saltpoint]

41. Hi, grantcart. You make a strong and eloquent case for Kaine.

I wrote recently to a pair of county-level Democratic pals in Virginia suggesting to them that they are about to lose a governor but gain a Vice President.

One agreed that Kaine was the likely pick; the other felt Sebelius was still in the running.

Both agreed with you about the Catholic old-neighborhood demographics in some of those states.

I wonder if Schweitzer is not getting the level of attention he probably deserves because there's no media market to speak of in Helena. Brit Hume, for instance, likely knows where Montana is but tries not to think about it.

And as you say, Obama is actually tied or slightly ahead in Montana.

I'm impressed with Kaine's service abroad and I think Obama wants to fight hard for the faith community, turning the entire definition of what it sort of is now to a progressive statement and progressive affiliation. My guess is he's really appalled at people like Jim Dobson and wants to yank the table cloth out from under their comfortable supper and cast faith as a global commitment to others in need.

That would leave Dobson high and dry and might put Kaine in the vice presidency.

[grantcart]

50. and Mark Todd gave the clincher both McCain and Obama are old fashioned in the sense

that they like to surround themselves with people that they feel completely comfortable with and that is going to be the trump card in the VP race.

I think it would be hard to find somebody who Obama finds more comfortable to be around than Kaine. He is self effacing, and seriously religious. He also has the appropriate VP personality, atleast for governance, he has no interest in upstaging the boss.

[saltpoint]

51. Good points. I can see it. I can see Kaine doing whatever is asked of

him to help the campaign for November and onward into governance.

Yes.

I can see it.

And if his being on the ticket boosts our chances of taking Virginia away from the Republicans, so much the better.

Hot dog, grantcart -- we're gonna win this one!

[grantcart]

57. Catholics will go crazy about it - people forget how neglected Catholics are

at the national level and how Kennedy got that part of the electorate excited - Catholics will go nuts about it and even Republican Catholics (like my brother) who dutifully vote Repbulican just because of the abortion issue will switch - they don't believe McCain is really going to do anything about abortion anyway, including appointing the right kind of judges.

[saltpoint]

58. Tell your brother we need him as part of the new majority.

There must have come a time some years after 1963 when people who supported Nixon said to themselves in private, "I ought to have supported John Kennedy when I had the chance to, and pass it up."

There must have been some yank of regret for choosing Nixon over Kennedy back then.

I hope we persuade some Republicans to support this new reformer prior to November.

[Dinger]

38. Shhhh, Can't Be Wes Clark, Must Keep That Quiet

At all costs.

[saltpoint]

42. I offer another handful of possible veep picks downthread from the

original five, and include Wes in one of those, and despite recent chatter on the blogs see no reason why Clark should be excluded from consideration in the real world.

Right now McCain leads in Arkansas. I don't see an argument where Clark would hurt us there. Rather, I think he'd help, and likely by a significant margin to make it a competitive state.

[Dinger]

44. Thank You

Sorry, that comment was not directed at you. Just eternal veep lists all over the place, with Clark excluded. I realize that I'm hoping against hope, but I really do hope there is a chance he can be VP yet, however small that chance is.

[saltpoint]

46. Hi, Dinger. I'm not sure and by no means have an inside glimpse, but

I am just not seeing a case against Clark.

I'm not sure why he's being excluded in the media either.

[Thrill]

40. Schweitzer or Kaine for me

[saltpoint]

45. I'm there as well, BrentTaylor, plus Richardson or Sebelius, depending

on what Obama wanted to highlight and emphasize.

My dream list would include Mario Cuomo, RFK Jr, Russ Finegold, Barbara Boxer, and Bill Moyers. A few others, too.

But among people I think Obama's team will consider, I think either Schweitzer, Kaine, or Sebelius brings the most punch. None of the others are slouches by any means. If it turns out to be Biden, I'm just as delighted to support that ticket. Biden's a good man and a great Democrat.

We've got us a beautiful blue bench.

[barack the house]

47. Please let the put Barbour on the ticket. That would be perfect.

[saltpoint]

48. No kidding. Haley Barbour is one of the most supremely despicable

Republicans ever, and that's saying something.

[saltpoint]

49. An alternative short list for McCain:

Mike DeWine (a loser generally before he lost politically in 06, but potent as a marquee name in Ohio Republican circles, such as they are);

Rudy Giuliani (a thick-headed thuggish bully before he was trounced in the 08 primaries, but an arguably useful prop in McCain's continuation of the terra terra terra theme);

Kay Baily Hutchison (a dustdevil of hairspray and nonsense, but an arguably useful prop if McCain wants to one-up Obama if Obama chooses a male and not a female veep nom);

Rick Santorum (an unstable narcissist who would cement the Far Right and mobilize fundraising, which will be desperately needed against a better-organized and better-financed Obama campaign); and

Franklin Graham (a dangerously unstable maniac who would MORE than cement the fundamentalist base and represent that McCain can pander with the very best of anyone in all history).