A cynical prediction.

[Julien Sorel]

We've seen how the media pick up stories and run with them when there's a news lull. The Swift Hoax Veterans are just the latest in a long line of these. As that plays itself out, I think the smart thing to do is to try to figure out what the next big story will be. And I have a candidate.

The Republican Convention starts next week. Traditionally, the race really starts heating up once the last convention is over, and I see no reason why this year will be different. What will the media focus on as the convention ends? Well, the Swift Hoax turned out to be something of a stumbling block, a momentum breaker for Kerry. The media follow the trends, like everyone else. My bet is that the story coming out of the RNC will be Bush momentum. We're already seeing the Republicans try desperately to lower the bar for Bush -- the lifelong hack Bob Dole saying Kerry is winning is the most recent attempt, but we've all seen others. If Bush can come out of the convention equal or slightly ahead, which history says he should, the media will have their story to run with, "Bush the fighter;" "Bush on the comeback trail" and so on (I hope they have the decency not to call him the "Comeback Kid"). And then it will be, "Can Kerry counter Bush's momentum?"


This line will also draw some of the attention away from the Swift Boat Hoax, which really wasn't the media at their finest. It's a win-win for them: new story, and bury the old story. They can even run with a line like this: "After the Swift Hoax Veterans took their toll, John Kerry ran into an upbeat Republican convention, blah blah blah," kind of disowning their own role in the Swift Hoax story.

Just a guess, mind you, but it will be interesting to watch for.

[asjr]

1. Are you psychic? You just read the minds of the media. And what

you say makes sense. It is all about them, not the candidates.

[tedoll78]

2. The Bush lead meme after the convention..

is what I had worried about more than almost anything else. The "Big Bush Mo'" story being repeated ad nauseum in the media could create a bandwagon effect cumbersome for Kerry.

This is why I'd been advocating a half-hour infomercial on the Sunday night after the GOP convention.. to counter their message, bust-up the lies they've told, etc. It would've cut-into any bounce that Bush would've gotten, making the Bush Momentum Meme much less likely.

I emailed them numerous times about this. Oh well. I can still hope, though, that Bush tries to play his one note over and over again (TerrorFearTerrorFear..) just like he did in the SOTU, and that he'll get the same results.

We'll see.

[enigmatic]

3. I'd like to see that, too..

that's a great idea, and I hope the DNC would do it.

[tedoll78]

4. I've been pushing for this for forever.

Perot has proven that, despite the comic nature of some of the coverage, infomercials do work; as a result of the time he bought, he ran in first place for some time in 1992. I'd bet that had Perot not done that Hokey-Pokey in-out dance with his candidacy that year, he would've done much, much better.

I've also advocated that Kerry needs to buy one half-hour on Halloween night. This year, it's the Sunday night before Election Day, so it would make sense for him to buy time at about 10PM, EST.. after the trick-or-treating is mostly over (especially in crucial Central Time Zone midwestern states).

By that time, the Kerry campaign will know a number of things via polling & focus groups:
- Kerry's main weaknesses
- Kerry's main strengths
- Bush's main weaknesses
- Bush's main strengths
- most important issues to swing voters
- what issues really energize the Democratic base
- local issues in key states

With this information, the Kerry campaign would be able to craft a very finely-tailored message to both our base, disillusioned GOPers, and swing voters. Another great thing about this: by the time it's done airing, the Bush campaign would have less than 36 hours until Election Day in which to spread any response that it might have to the infomercial's content.

I've emailed them this argument a number of times, and I'm going to continue to do so. A proper infomercial could give our campaign a last-minute bounce that might carry the day on November 2nd.

[troublemaker]

5. Very asute post. (front page worthy IMO)