Rasmussen, 7/24: Obama 45%, McCain 41%

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Thursday, July 24, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%.

-snip-

Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a two-point lead over George W. Bush (three points with leaners). That was down slightly from the day before when the Massachusetts Senator reached the high-water mark for his campaign heading into the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).

One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 92% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 8% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 86% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 14% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.

From a practical point of view, that means Election 2004 was all about getting out the base vote. In Election 2008, the candidates still need to make their case to a significant pool of undecided voters.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 168 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227.

-snip-

[SteelPenguin]

1. I just gotta say I'm surprised

I really expected the gap to be bigger. Anecdotally things are very different from four years ago, with the people I know. More independents leaning Obama, less support of McCain and the republican party as a whole...I dont know. I just expected it to be much wider than that.

[Teaser]

2. Why? It's a tracking poll.

The samples are reweighted so as not to diverge too much from past samples. Which is why we see so little variation day to day.

[Lasher]

4. The Real Clear Politics average is a better source, IMO

That's because it averages all reputable recent polls, including Rasmussen. But it's currently shoeing Obama has only a 4.8% lead, which is pretty close to what Rasmussen says. I am also wondering why Obama isn't ahead more. Maybe his move to the center wasn't such a great idea.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

If you hit the link, scroll down to Junior's average approval rating. It's the lowest I've ever seen.

[SteelPenguin]

5. I understand but it's not just Rasmussen

I don't know. I just would have expected him up by at least 8 points at this point. Or more. I'm also surprised that many people are voting McCain at this point. It's embarrasing for our country to have that many people so willfully ignorant.

[my3boyz]

6. Every single poll that comes out shows him with a lead. Every single time.

They might contradict each other regarding how big that lead is but he leads every single poll. He is also kickin @ss in the state polls. As we learned in 2004, the state polls matter.

[SteelPenguin]

7. I'm just surprised at the size of those leads

I'd expect more. I dont' know if the polls are incorrect, my anecdotal evidence is incorrect, or what.

It just seems there were many more Bush supporters in 2004 than there are in 2008 for McCain, yet the numbers are barely higher for Obama than they were for Kerry.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Obama also passed McCain in favorability rating for the first time in a few weeks.

In Rasmussen's tracking.